Michael Zezas: After the Debt Ceiling, What’s Next?

Michael Zezas: After the Debt Ceiling, What’s Next?

On the heels of Congress’s raising the debt ceiling, markets are wondering: What’s next from D.C.? Here are three things we’re watching.


----- Transcript -----

Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income and Thematic Research for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about what we're watching in Washington, D.C.. It's Wednesday, June 7th at 3 p.m. in New York.


Now that the debt ceiling has been raised and the risk of a U.S. default is behind us for quite some time, it begs the question, what could come next out of Washington, D.C. that markets need to care about? While there's nothing definitively impactful on the horizon from our perspective, here's three things we're watching.


First, we continue to expect that, any day, the White House could announce new restrictions on outbound investments towards China. If this were to occur, its scope would matter greatly. Limited restrictions might not matter, but wide ranging restrictions could seriously interrupt foreign direct investment into China at a time when investors are asking questions about the sustainability of China's economic recovery in light of some recent weak data.


Second, we have to keep an eye on the emerging discussion around AI regulation. To be clear, there don't yet appear to be any well-formed views by either party on how regulation should develop. So Congress is likely far from action. But the shape of any eventual action will likely determine which use cases for AI will be permitted. So paying attention to these emerging debates will be important.


Finally, candidates for president in the 2024 U.S. election have started to emerge. This has stoked questions about potential looming changes in policies that matter to markets. This includes tax policy, where key corporate and personal tax changes are set to expire starting in 2025, making the outcome of the election potentially impactful to corporate margins and therefore equity and credit markets. This certainly bears watching and we'll be investing substantial time in researching this topic in the coming months. But we caution that it's far too early to draw any conclusions about the likelihood of election outcomes and resulting policy paths. So in our view, it's still just a bit too early to impact markets.


Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague. Or leave us a review on Apple Podcasts. It helps more people find the show.

Avsnitt(1512)

Andrew Sheets: The Cost of Easy Policy: A 10 Year Outlook

Andrew Sheets: The Cost of Easy Policy: A 10 Year Outlook

On today's episode, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets takes a look at expected market returns over the next decade and explains how current policy affects future returns.

1 Nov 20193min

Michael Zezas: How Do Markets View Major Policy Proposals? (Replay)

Michael Zezas: How Do Markets View Major Policy Proposals? (Replay)

On today's episode, Head of U.S. Public Policy Michael Zezas takes a look at transformative policy proposals by 2020 Presidential candidates. How could big policies like Medicare-for-All reshape markets?

30 Okt 20192min

Mike Wilson: Are U.S. Equities Defying Gravity?

Mike Wilson: Are U.S. Equities Defying Gravity?

On today’s episode, a curious paradox: Although major indices are making new highs, many defensive stocks are leading the pack. Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson explains why.

28 Okt 20193min

Andrew Sheets: Can Sentiment Alone Drive Markets Higher?

Andrew Sheets: Can Sentiment Alone Drive Markets Higher?

On today's episode, Optimism in markets has risen significantly over the past three weeks. But Chief-Across Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets asks, “Is optimism enough?”

25 Okt 20193min

Michael Zezas: Could “Phase One” Be the Turning Point?

Michael Zezas: Could “Phase One” Be the Turning Point?

On this episode, Head of U.S. Public Policy Michael Zezas explains why a global growth rebound could largely hinge on trade negotiations ahead of the December 15th tariffs.

23 Okt 20191min

Mike Wilson: 5 Pockets of Opportunity for Equities Investors

Mike Wilson: 5 Pockets of Opportunity for Equities Investors

On today's episode, Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson says investors may want to steer clear of expensive growth stocks in favor of some defensive and cheaper-priced stocks.

21 Okt 20193min

Andrew Sheets: One Market We Feel Good About

Andrew Sheets: One Market We Feel Good About

On today’s episode, Chief Cross Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets highlights the one market in which the currency, government bonds and equities may all be solid defensive plays.

18 Okt 20192min

Michael Zezas: A “Durable Pause” on U.S.-China Trade Tensions?

Michael Zezas: A “Durable Pause” on U.S.-China Trade Tensions?

On today’s episode, Head of Public Policy Michael Zezas says unlike prior tariff pauses, the “phase one” agreement could have durability. However, much uncertainty remains.

16 Okt 20192min

Populärt inom Business & ekonomi

badfluence
framgangspodden
varvet
rss-svart-marknad
rss-borsens-finest
uppgang-och-fall
rss-jossan-nina
affarsvarlden
bathina-en-podcast
lastbilspodden
fill-or-kill
borsmorgon
rss-inga-dumma-fragor-om-pengar
24fragor
avanzapodden
rss-kort-lang-analyspodden-fran-di
kapitalet-en-podd-om-ekonomi
rss-dagen-med-di
rss-en-rik-historia
tabberaset