Ravi Shanker: A New Golden Age of Travel Ahead?

Ravi Shanker: A New Golden Age of Travel Ahead?

With a strong holiday season expected, and a rise in U.S. passport issuance, there’s good reason to believe the travel industry will see durable growth in the year ahead.


----- Transcript -----

Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Ravi Shanker, Morgan Stanley's Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I'll discuss our view on airline travel in 2024. It's Wednesday, November 29th at 10 a.m. in New York.


Travel plans are in most people's minds over the holiday season, and many of us just experienced firsthand the hectic Thanksgiving holiday weekend. On the Sunday after Thanksgiving, the US Transportation Security Administration, or TSA, screened more than 2.9 million passengers, which was the most ever for a single day. Overall, the TSA's reported number of travelers last week was up 4.2% versus 2019 and has been tracking up nearly 6% versus 2019 for the month of November. This is impressive given that November is typically a slower leisure travel month.


Furthermore, despite record travel over the last several weeks, airlines achieved record low cancellations over the Thanksgiving weekend as well. This all bodes well for the upcoming holidays. We continue to expect a strong holiday season ahead, as demand for air travel is showing no signs of slowing. And despite concerns around choppy macro conditions, we continue to see no signs of a cliff in demand. Meanwhile, our survey work indicates that holiday travel intentions remain robust among all consumers and not just high income households.


At the same time, corporate travel budgets in 2024 are trending in line with expectations, and business travel is likely to mirror domestic leisure travel just on a delayed basis. Smaller enterprises continue to lead the way for corporate travel demand. Among companies with less than $1 billion in revenue, 41% are already back to pre 2020 travel volumes. Right now, the primary barriers to corporate travel appear to be cost concerns as well as the economic and market outlook. This suggests that constraints on corporate travel may be cyclical rather than structural.


One final observation which relates to both international business and leisure travel is that US passport issuance is also up. According to US government data, as of early November, 2023 had already seen the issuance of over 24 million passports. That's 9% higher compared to 2022. This is a new record which demonstrates that people want to travel now more than ever, particularly internationally. Over the past 25 years, the number of US passports issued per year has noticeably increased after major economic events such as the dot-com bubble in the early 2000s, the global financial crisis in 2008-2009, with the latest being post-Covid in 2022. We continue to believe that this is not a one and done travel spike, but a durable growth trend. All told, it looks like we may be entering a new golden age of travel in the 2020s.


Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and shared Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Avsnitt(1510)

Andrew Sheets: 3 Lessons from 2019… for 2020

Andrew Sheets: 3 Lessons from 2019… for 2020

On today's episode, What important factors from 2019 could give investors context on the investing climate ahead? Consider valuations, policy and inflation.

20 Dec 20193min

Michael Zezas: Markets Mull the “Phase One” Deal

Michael Zezas: Markets Mull the “Phase One” Deal

On today's episode, What will the U.S-China “Phase One” trade deal mean for the global economy, corporate confidence and markets? Head of U.S. Public Policy Michael Zezas weighs in.

18 Dec 20192min

Mike Wilson: A Trifecta of Positive Catalysts

Mike Wilson: A Trifecta of Positive Catalysts

On today's episode, A dovish Fed, progress on trade and a path toward a potentially orderly Brexit are driving global equities higher but how much of the global recovery is already priced?

16 Dec 20193min

Andrew Sheets: 2020 Playbook: Analyzing the Bull Case

Andrew Sheets: 2020 Playbook: Analyzing the Bull Case

In this special two part bull/bear series, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets shares insight on the catalysts that could drive strong market returns in 2020.

13 Dec 20192min

Special Episode: Manufacturing Data Sends an Upbeat Signal

Special Episode: Manufacturing Data Sends an Upbeat Signal

On this episode with special guest Chetan Ahya, the firm’s Chief Global Economist, Trade tensions have put a damper on global manufacturing, but is the tide poised to turn after the first broad-based sentiment uptick in seven months?

12 Dec 20192min

Michael Zezas: U.S.-China Trade: What Happens in 2020?

Michael Zezas: U.S.-China Trade: What Happens in 2020?

On today's episode, Although some reports have suggested progress on a phase one deal, markets are still seeking a clear signal forward on trade—and that means tackling the more difficult phase two deal.

11 Dec 20192min

Mike Wilson: The Virtuous Circle of Excess Liquidity

Mike Wilson: The Virtuous Circle of Excess Liquidity

On today's episode, Central banks seem likely to continue their balance sheet expansion into next year, driving lower volatility, more cash into equities… and some great expectations.

9 Dec 20194min

Andrew Sheets: 2020 Playbook: Analyzing the Bear Case

Andrew Sheets: 2020 Playbook: Analyzing the Bear Case

In this special two part bull/bear series, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets shares insight on the catalysts that could hamper market returns in 2020.

6 Dec 20192min

Populärt inom Business & ekonomi

badfluence
framgangspodden
varvet
rss-jossan-nina
rss-svart-marknad
rss-borsens-finest
uppgang-och-fall
avanzapodden
lastbilspodden
bathina-en-podcast
fill-or-kill
affarsvarlden
borsmorgon
rss-dagen-med-di
rss-kort-lang-analyspodden-fran-di
24fragor
rss-inga-dumma-fragor-om-pengar
kapitalet-en-podd-om-ekonomi
rss-en-rik-historia
tabberaset