Adventures in Finance 38 - Black Monday: First Hand Accounts of the 87 Crash

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, joins managing editor, Roger Hirst, to take a deep dive into the apex predator of currency markets: the U.S. dollar. Roger argues that the size and speed of the dollar’s fall is driven more by euro strength, flowing out from the ECB’s move toward debt mutualization, than it is by dollar weakness. He explains how certain EM currencies are still weakening as compared to the dollar and how the ECB and the BOJ may find it difficult to hit their inflation targets should their currencies continue to strengthen. Roger also expounds on how bond yield convergence between the U.S. and Europe is contributing to euro strength. In light of these potential structural challenges and the supply and demand bottlenecks due to COVID-19, Ash and Roger then explore how to play the trade and the ongoing bifurcation of financial markets and the economy. In the intro, Peter Cooper looks at Apple’s $2 trillion valuation and Target’s Q2 earnings report. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

19 Aug 202034min

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, hosts Tony Greer, editor of The Morning Navigator Newsletter, to discuss the S&P 500 breaking record highs and the wild inflation trade. Tony considers where inflation is cropping up and how dollar weakness is connected to a dovish Fed. He also talks about the biggest market movers—bitcoin, FANG stocks, precious metals, and miners—and where the market may be headed should low interest rates persist. Ash and Tony explore what is happening in the housing market and what is influencing its activity. They top off their conversation by looking at the risks of momentum strategies to novice investors, ESG strategies catching fire, and Tony’s approach to position sizing. In the intro, Peter Cooper discusses the kick-off of the Democratic National Convention and the latest on CalPERS. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

18 Aug 202028min

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, is joined by editor, Max Wiethe, to talk gold, stocks, housing, and New York. After Ash analyzes the dismal Empire Manufacturing reading, he and Max discuss the NAHB housing number and explore what it means for the future of New York as professionals flee big cities for the safety of the suburbs. Ash and Max then interpret Goldman Sachs' increase of its price target for the S&P 500, which leads into a discussion of the future of U.S. equities more broadly. Lastly, Ash and Max discuss the case for and against precious metals and emphasize understanding both sides of the trade. In the intro, Jack explores dislocations in the U.S. housing market, looks at Berkshire Hathaway's investment in Barrick Gold Corp, and gives a sneak peak for Tuesday and Wednesday for Real Vision's "Precious Metals Week." Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

17 Aug 202035min

The global economy had been running higher for over a decade, and the coronavirus has been a major speed bump. But what happens when central banks have replaced the airbag with a dagger? This is the very question that Hugh Hendry, founder and former CIO of Eclectica Asset Management, explores alongside Luke Gromen, president and founder of Forrest for the Trees. Hendry and Gromen explore the fate of the U.S. dollar through the lens of Charles Kindleberger's theory about "monetary hegemony."They analyze the various interest rates and current accounts of different countries and break down how these nations manage their exposure to commodity risk.  Sponsor Link - Keep Coming Back : http://keepcomingbackpodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

16 Aug 20201h 11min

Mike Green of Logica Capital sat down with Srinivas Thiruvadanthai, director of research at the Jerome Levy Forecasting Center, in the last interview to be filmed in Real Vision's studios before the world and our daily routines would be drastically changed by unforeseeable total lockdowns. A lot has changed since then, and in this new interview, they reexamine their outlooks with the advantage of fresh data. Together they discuss the side effects of policies like total lockdown, increased unemployment insurance, and PPP while also examining the social and economic undercurrents that, although accelerated by COVID-19, were established long before it arrived on our shores. Using historical parallels to the Roman Empire, Sri and Mike also think about their long-term outlooks for the U.S. and its currency, taking a view that the U.S. is not in its dying days. Sponsor Link - Keep Coming Back : http://keepcomingbackpodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

15 Aug 20201h 19min

Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal, is joined by senior editor, Ash Bennington, to reflect on the current state of markets. Raoul and Ash discuss the upcoming “precious metals week,” and Raoul shares his views on gold, silver, and mining stocks and provides insight into his trading framework. Raoul and Ash then turn to cryptocurrency: Raoul analyzes Bitcoin’s risk/reward characteristics, and Ash details the technological breakthroughs of Ethereum 2.0 with Raoul maintaining it is the macro that is driving the extreme price action of this nascent asset class. In the intro, Jack gives a sneak peek of next week’s interviews on precious metals. Sponsor Link - Keep Coming Back : http://keepcomingbackpodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

14 Aug 202036min

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, joins managing editor, Ed Harrison, to discuss secular stagnation, initial jobless claims, and the fiscal cliff. They begin by exploring Ed’s takeaways from his interviews with Milton Berg and Charlie McElligott, their contrarian stances, and how price signal distortion is pointing toward secular stagnation. Ed and Ash also parse the differences between seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims and how the treatment of the data shapes the way an investor understands employment trends during the pandemic. They wrap up their discussion by considering USPS funding, the lapse in fiscal aid, and the significant political tail risks ahead for this election cycle. In the intro, Peter Cooper reviews the latest initial jobless claims numbers and the plight of essential workers. Sponsor Link - Keep Coming Back : http://keepcomingbackpodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

13 Aug 202036min

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, joins Robert Leonard, VP of Growth and Innovation at The Investor’s Podcast Network, to discuss how novice and millennial investors are currently navigating the markets. Robert explains how the real economy and markets are currently disconnected and how that lays the foundation for a future market correction. He also dives into his investment framework and how he combines both value and momentum strategies. Ash and Robert wrap up their discussion by examining how novice and millennial investors tactically and philosophically approach markets, especially in the past few months, and what the potential ramifications of that will be for this demographic. In the intro, Peter Cooper shares how airlines and Disney are currently working to conserve cash flow in an environment of suppressed demand. Sponsor Link - Keep Coming Back : http://keepcomingbackpodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

12 Aug 202033min