Daily Briefing - June 18, 2020

Editor Max Wiethe joins managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss the latest developments in markets, macro, and coronavirus. Max and Ed examine how the US is currently dealing with the virus and whether that means the nation is par for the course or has “gone off the reservation” as compared to other countries. They also talk about the risk factors that could put a highly volatile market over the edge, consider the longevity of US outperformance, and explore the current market rotation. They wrap up their discussion by sharing their thoughts on the latest video on Real Vision Essential and announce a special edition of the Daily Briefing on Friday as the U.S. observes Independence Day. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

29 Juni 202041min

What happens when an upheaval so massive forces financial markets, governments, and society to rethink how our systems work? Michael Krieger, author of the Liberty Blitzkrieg, joins Real Vision to explain what coronavirus and the response to the outbreak has revealed about the condition of American systems – from financial markets to the health care system. Tracing the story of financial markets and societal trends over the past two decades, Krieger outlines how our systems have been pushed to the brink – focusing on emergency policy responses and the everything bubble. He also provides viewers with potential solutions to the systemic decay that has been brought to the forefront by the coronavirus outbreak. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

28 Juni 202046min

Steve Greenhut, Western region director at R Street Institute and author of "Plunder: How Public Employee Unions are Raiding Treasuries, Controlling Our Lives and Bankrupting the Nation," joins Mike Green of Logica Capital Advisers to discuss his coverage of the political paralysis that surrounds the issue of pensions in California. He guides Mike on a deep-dive into the gargantuan public employee compensation complex and how that complex bleeds into every other aspect of California government spending. He argues that public employees have forced state and local governments into a corner wherein they cannot maintain their obligations because of the massive burden of pension disbursements and employee compensation. Due to a lack of transparency, pension assumptions based on guesswork, and legal precedent overturning democratic decisions, Greenhut says that the perfect storm that will surely "surprise" Californian politicians has been plain to see for longer than a decade.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

27 Juni 202048min

Senior editor Ash Bennington hosts managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss a day of pain on Wall Street as the coronavirus shows no signs of relenting and the normally cautious Federal Reserve issued an alarming mandate to large-cap banks. Ed and Ash also flesh out their thinking on a potential "double-dip recession" and a second wave of coronavirus. In the intro, Jack Farley looks at COVID-19 data and analyzes the dire results from the Fed's "stress test" of the banking sector. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

27 Juni 202031min

Senior editor Ash Bennington and managing editor Ed Harrison break down the latest economic data amid a bullish day on Wall Street. They discuss the rising infections in states like Texas, Arizona, and Florida, and they take a data-driven look at the apparent stalling of the jobs recovery and the reversal of the durable goods slowdown. Ash looks at how peoples’ marginal propensity to spend is affecting the recovery, while Ed explores whether different asset classes are pricing in different recovery “shapes” (equities pricing in a V-shape, high-yield pricing in a Nike swoosh, and investment grade pricing in a “reverse radical”). In the intro, Nick Correa discusses what's happening in Texas and how the virus spread undetected for several weeks before the US locked down. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

25 Juni 202046min

Senior editor Ash Bennington joins managing editor Roger Hirst to analyze the anatomy of bubbles, propelled by emotional mania, and how that is relevant to today’s markets. Bennington and Hirst discuss how equity markets appear to be inflated by flows rather than grounded in fundamentals and why the Fed’s balance sheet is the key driver of all of the recent price action. They also explain why time horizons are a critical piece to how traders should form their thesis and shapes the way they look at the market as well. In the intro, Nick Correa shares the IMF’s latest update on its global GDP projections, what’s happening in CDS markets, and the cost of business operations during coronavirus. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

24 Juni 202038min

Senior editor Ash Bennington joins managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss the latest news in markets, macro, and coronavirus. Bennington and Harrison first analyze the breaking story about Wirecard, a German fintech company, and its implications for Germany. They also talk about how the Fed has released the animal spirits on markets, bolstered by exorbitant amounts of liquidity, and anticipate the pullback in consumption in light of a W-shaped recovery. Finally, they explain how the pandemic reasserting itself will end up strengthening the dollar and lead to a liquidity crunch. In the intro, Nick Correa explains the latest developments in the Wirecard story and provides some context around how they arrived at this point. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

23 Juni 202033min

Senior editor Ash Bennington and managing editor Ed Harrison explore the perilous state of the global markets amid the unrelenting spread of coronavirus. They discuss the disturbing “second wave” of coronavirus in the U.S. – in states like Florida, Texas, and Arizona – as well as around the world and evaluate how the continued spread will impact economic growth and financial returns across different asset classes. Ed hazards whether the U.S. yield curve will see bear-steepening (or bull flattening), and Ash puts the widening “breadth” of the U.S. rally in proper context. In the intro, Jack Farley explores why CLO managers are often rendered incapable just at the time that bold action is most required. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

22 Juni 202032min