DB-Oct 16, 2020 - The Debt Civil War and "The Organic Recession"

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ report on the producer price index for March showed the biggest month-over-month and year-over-year gains on record, 1.4% and 11.2%, respectively, as inflation continues to dominate the discourse. The PPI data follow the hottest consumer price index reading in 40 years, 8.5%. As the Federal Reserve continues to try to convince markets and consumers it’s serious about tightening monetary conditions and reining in spiraling prices, policymakers in China and Japan press on with accommodation. Our man in Japan, Weston Nakamura, joins Maggie Lake at the top of today’s Real Vision Daily Briefing to talk about the Japanese yen’s role in the global financial system and the worrying signals he’s seeing in forex markets. Then, Maggie welcomes Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, to talk about the Fed, markets, and inflation as we head into a critical earnings-reporting season. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3EeUTF4 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

13 Apr 202237min

The Consumer Price Index increased 8.5% in March compared to a year earlier, another new 40-year-high following a 7.9% annual gain in February. Energy and agriculture markets remain the critical areas of focus, each of them adversely impacted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. U.S. equity indexes surged on a slower-than-expected 0.3% month-over-month CPI increase, and many economists see this as a potential peak in this inflationary period. The Federal Reserve has left the door open for a 50 basis point increase to its federal funds rate target, and “quantitative tightening” is set to commence in May. But there’s little to suggest inflation will recede toward the central bank’s 2% target anytime soon. Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro, joins Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, for today’s Real Vision Daily Briefing to discuss commodities, inflation, central bank policy, and financial markets. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3JtPfzO Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

13 Apr 202235min

The Consumer Price Index for March is going to generate a lot of headlines when it’s released on Tuesday morning at 8:30 a.m. ET. That’s still the No. 1 issue confronting policymakers and investors, and, given the constraints on energy and agricultural commodities exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, that’s likely to be the case for some time. Will the Federal Reserve tighten policy to the point of economic recession? Matt Peron, Director of Research at Janus Henderson Investors, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about where we are in the market cycle, inflation, and the merits of dividends. At the top of the show, Ash Bennington shares an update on cryptocurrency markets in the aftermath of the Bitcoin 2022 conference in Miami. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3rejLHK Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

12 Apr 202237min

What did Rick Rule learn from renowned investor, Warren Buffett? He shares that with Maggie on a bonus edition of My Life in 4 Trades Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

10 Apr 20227min

Legendary trader, Rick Rule, joins Maggie Lake on the debut episode of My Life in 4 Trades to discuss his journey investing in natural resource securities, the companies he has financed across the globe, and the most important lessons he’s learned along the way. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

9 Apr 202243min

The U.S. dollar index hit 100 for the first time in two years on Friday, surging on the prospect of a more aggressive monetary tightening cycle on top of an increasingly fraught geopolitical landscape. Signs of inflation abound, even as the Federal Reserve asserts its hawkishness at every opportunity. The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization’s food price index jumped nearly 13% in March to a new record high, with disruptions to global trade flows, specifically passage through the crucial Black Sea, fueling fears of food shortages. And prices for agricultural commodities continue to rise. U.S. equity indexes were mixed two hours before Friday’s close of regular trading, with tech stocks giving back much of what was gained on Thursday. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note touched a new three-year high. Jeremy Schwartz, Global Chief Investment Officer at WisdomTree Asset Management, joins Warren Pies on today’s Daily Briefing to discuss the U.S. dollar, supply chain disruptions, and inflation. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3xenRmT Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

9 Apr 202241min

WTI gave back early gains today, as member-states of the International Energy Agency agreed to release 60 million barrels of oil from storage in a follow-up move to President Joe Biden’s plan to tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for 180 million barrels. There are also questions about whether eurozone authorities will be able to keep Russian oil off the market. Chinese officials provided more rhetorical support for stepping up monetary stimulus for the economy to boost consumption at an “appropriate time,” acknowledging that domestic and global risks are now more significant than previously forecast. Minutes from the March meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee show the U.S. central bank plans to begin to run off its $9 trillion balance sheet at a $1 trillion per year annualized pace beginning in May. And St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said today he’d like to see a 3.5% fed funds rate by the second half of 2022 and favors a 50-basis-point hike at the FOMC’s meeting next month. Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington for today’s Daily Briefing to discuss crude oil prices, Chinese monetary policy, and the Fed’s new hawkishness. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3JkKDM6 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

8 Apr 202231min

Minutes to the Federal Open Market Committee’s March meeting reveal that the U.S. central bank plans to begin reducing its balance sheet as soon as after the FOMC’s May meeting. Policymakers discussed monthly caps for asset runoffs, $35 billion for mortgage-backed securities and $60 billion for Treasuries. The plan includes a phase-in period of three months, or modestly longer, but the monthly total cap of $95 billion is significantly higher than the last time the Federal Reserve tried to shrink its balance sheet. The Fed’s hawkish tone was underscored by the fact that multiple members conceded that at least one rate hike of 50 basis points may be warranted and that they might have voted for one of that magnitude in March but for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine presenting a new challenge to growth. U.S. equity markets slipped further into the red following the minutes’ release, while the yield on the 10-year Treasury note jumped to a three-year high. Real Vision is in San Diego for this week’s Macro Experience event, where we continue to meet face to face with some of our favorite guests. Julian Brigden, co-founder of MI2 Partners, joins Maggie Lake to discuss the FOMC minutes and the central bank’s efforts to fight inflation while supporting growth on today’s Daily Briefing. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3NLQFsR. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

7 Apr 202235min