Lyn Alden on Gold, Real Bond Yields, and the Treasury s Bloated War Chest

The Institute of Supply Management’s services gauge sank to its lowest level in two years, mortgage demand declined despite falling rates, and the housing rental market cooled markedly, as evidence of economic slowdown accumulates. The Federal Reserve, meanwhile, as revealed by the minutes to the June 14-15 FOMC meeting, remains “highly attentive” to inflation risks. “The market is still in a process of pricing in or pricing out incremental tightening, as if there’s a spectrum of Fed activity,” explained Darius Dale in his daily note this morning. “But the Fed is waiting to achieve its signal before it does something different.” The Federal Reserve, according to Darius, is operating right now under a “singular” mandate, and that is to get inflation expectations re-anchored to its long-term 2% target. Darius, the founder of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about whether and when the Fed will respond to data other than inflation. We also get a sneak peak at Raoul Pal’s and Sam Bankman-Fried’s discussion about what’s happening in crypto and beyond these days. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3akrlLq. Catch Raoul’s conversation with SBF on Friday. And be sure to catch Raoul's conversation with SBF on Friday. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

7 Juli 202236min

Commodity prices are collapsing, the U.S. dollar is soaring, and the yield curve has inverted again: This is not an auspicious combination. Nor is the fact that a Bloomberg Economics model is now indicating a 38% chance of a recession in the next year. Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen welcomes Tony Greer of TG Macro to talk about recent price action in the commodities market and the longer-term supply-demand story for oil and gas – highlighted by a look-in at Tony’s recent conversation with the infamous Doomberg about the complexities of hydrocarbons and their everyday use. Andreas and Tony also discuss the current condition of the global economy. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3OGZ1ls. Watch the full interview with Doomberg and Tony Greer here: https://rvtv.io/3yh8toE. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

6 Juli 202237min

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. Realtor Steve Saretsky is the author of one of Vancouver’s most popular real estate blogs. Steve joins Harry Melandri to talk about everything to do with Canada’s housing market. He’s bearish because mortgage rates are rising rapidly while consumer debt levels are already very high. Vancouver, Toronto, and other major Canadian markets have been red-hot for years. But people in those markets are now highly leveraged. Steve sorts through the implications and forecasts what’s next for housing in Canada. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

3 Juli 202248min

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Jason Buck’s story is wildly fascinating. When he was 19, he turned $2,000 into $100,000 simply by investing in tech stocks. A few years later, he was worth roughly $5 million. But he lost it all during the Global Financial Crisis, and he had to move in with his sister. It’s a wildly fascinating story, full of lessons about surviving, battling through adversity, and succeeding. Above all, as Jason shares with Maggie Lake, is to be always willing to learn. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

2 Juli 202259min

The major U.S. equity indexes edged into positive territory after opening in the red, even as a measure of U.S. manufacturing activity fell to 53 in June from 56.1 in May, a two-year low, and the latest update to the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow gauge came in at negative 2.1% on an annualized basis. Not only is a U.S. recession more likely than a soft landing; we may already be in one. “I’m keeping an open mind, and if we do have a recession it will produce an even more powerful rally, as bull markets are born out of recessions," says Mark Ritchie II. Ritchie II, managing partner and chief investment officer of RTM Capital Advisors, joins Real Vision's Ash Bennington to talk about financial markets, the global economy, and capital preservation. We also hear from Mark Minervini about diversified portfolios in a bear market versus a bull market. And we drop in on an exclusive interview between Ash and CEO Mark Lamb about CoinFLEX’s struggle for survival amid the crypto downturn. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3AeGKaR. Watch the full conversation featuring Mark Minervini, Jared Dillian, and Mark Ritchie II here: https://rvtv.io/3OAxAcR. Watch Ash’s interview with Mark Lamb here: https://rvtv.io/3yw0ghH. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

2 Juli 202239min

Stocks are sliding and bonds are rallying, as investors react to accumulating evidence that inflation will persist even though the economy is slowing down. There’s a word for that kind of scenario: stagflation. “The Fed is facing one of the worst predicaments of its existence,” tweeted Tavi Costa. “The US economy simply cannot handle the Fed’s continued monetary tightening." Costa, a partner and portfolio manager at Crescat Capital, joins Real Vision's Ash Bennington to talk about the confluence of three macro extremes. We also hear from Hari Krishnan about how there may not be a solution for the Federal Reserve’s dilemma. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3AklJeO. Watch the full conversation featuring Hari Krishnan and Ash Bennington here: https://rvtv.io/3QUWOnVhttps://rvtv.io/3xYSJG. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

1 Juli 202238min

U.S. gross domestic product contracted by 1.6% on an annualized basis during the first quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s final estimate, as consumer spending was weaker than originally forecast. The sense we’re heading for recession was heightened when Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said today at a European Central Bank forum that policymakers won’t let the economy slip into a "higher inflation regime" even if it means raising interest rates to levels that put growth at risk. He maintains U.S. household finances remain strong. “The Fed needs you to capitulate on summer travel in order for inflation to get under control,” says 42 Macro founder and CEO Darius Dale. Darius joins Real Vision's Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about receding inflation fear and rising recession risk. We also hear from Francis Gannon about how higher interest rates are driving a shift in market focus. And we share a segment from today’s Crypto Unwrapped episode on continuing upheaval in the crypto market. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3Ntyqa7. Watch the full conversation featuring Francis Gannon here: https://rvtv.io/3QUWOnV. Watch the full Crypto Unwrapped episode featuring Tascha Che, Katie Talati, and Ash Bennington here: https://rvtv.io/3NufQyO. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

30 Juni 202235min

The S&P 500 is down nearly 18% year to date, its worst first-half performance since 1970. U.S. consumer confidence dropped to its lowest level in 16 months in June, as inflation continues to extract its due. And Google searches for "recession" have reached a new high, according to Andreas Steno Larsen. “Typically,” he adds, “that only happens during actual recessions. Are we already in one, or is the risk overstated by now?” The fear of slowing growth now supplanting the fear of inflation, markets have fresh fuel to reprice assets across the risk spectrum. Andreas Steno Larsen joins Ash Bennington to talk about inflation, recession, and recent price action, including the particular pressure on convertible bonds. We also hear from Michael Gayed about an emerging counter-trend trade based on a correction for crude oil and commodities. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3u7AgGV. Watch the full conversation featuring Michael Gayed here: Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

28 Juni 202234min