Is All the Bad News Priced In?

Is All the Bad News Priced In?

The People’s Bank of China got the week started with surprise rate cuts on domestic growth concerns, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey on general business conditions for August registered its second-biggest slide since 2001, and the National Association of Home Buyers/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index declined for the eighth straight month. But all three major U.S. equity indexes were higher heading into the close, as Treasury yields continued to drift lower. Perhaps investors anticipate a Federal Reserve pivot. Perhaps they’re pricing in a selloff in crude oil. Has the larger trend shifted? “We have NEVER seen a time in history like this,” tweeted Michael Gayed in July, “where a significant drawdown in Treasuries matched a significant drawdown in stocks (which may not be over).” Gayed, the publisher of the Lead-Lag Report, joins Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about stocks, bonds, and the rising risk of demand destruction because of Fed rate hikes just as supply chains come back on line. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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The Knock-On Effect #8 - Stock Rally to Spur Foot Picking?

The Knock-On Effect #8 - Stock Rally to Spur Foot Picking?

Why will higher stock prices lead more American to pick feet? Alex and Justine discuss, also touching on income inequality, one very fancy Manhattan store, and the marital habits of reptile owners. Pl...

13 Juli 201838min

Real Vision Rewind #1 – Godfather of Central Banking

Real Vision Rewind #1 – Godfather of Central Banking

How did the modern age of central banking begin? In this story previously heard in a 2017 episode of “Adventures in Finance,” Grant Williams, Aaron Chan and Ben Hunt look at the fascinating history o...

6 Juli 201843min

The Knock-On Effect #7 - Rising dollar to unleash unusual ice cream flavors?

The Knock-On Effect #7 - Rising dollar to unleash unusual ice cream flavors?

Why will a rising dollar lead to a proliferation of ice cream flavors that go far beyond vanilla? Justine and Alex discuss, touching on thieves in Madagascar, beaver glands, whisky maturation and the ...

29 Juni 201837min

The Knock-On Effect #6 - Fed Hikes to Quash Lottery Ticket Sales?

The Knock-On Effect #6 - Fed Hikes to Quash Lottery Ticket Sales?

Why will a higher fed funds rates lead to a decline in the number of Americans who play the lottery? Alex and Justine discuss, along the way touching on the future of transportation, moving to L.A., t...

22 Juni 201829min

The Knock-On Effect #5 - Demographics and Doorways

The Knock-On Effect #5 - Demographics and Doorways

Why will changing Chinese demographics lead to an increase of plastic strips in doorways? Justine and Alex discuss - and in so doing, also touch on Ikea trips, online dating, modern food production, a...

15 Juni 201848min

The Knock-On Effect #4 - Tariffs and Cork

The Knock-On Effect #4 - Tariffs and Cork

Why will U.S. tariffs lead to a resurgence for the global cork industry? Justine and Alex explain, along the way discussing Australian wine, cork shoes and the Chinese consumer. Learn more about your ...

8 Juni 201827min

The Knock-On Effect #3 - Crude Oil Boom, Craft Beer Gloom

The Knock-On Effect #3 - Crude Oil Boom, Craft Beer Gloom

Why will higher oil prices result in disappointed craft beer drinkers? Justine and Alex discuss. Plus, Alex delves into the world of academia, and discusses an interesting finding about the way stocks...

1 Juni 201834min

The Knock-On Effect #2 - Rising Rates and Sandy Tracks

The Knock-On Effect #2 - Rising Rates and Sandy Tracks

Why will rising rates leave tire tracks on the world’s great beaches? Alex, Roger and Justine discuss. Plus, a high-pressure debate over whether stocks will fall 20% within the next year. Filmed on Ma...

25 Maj 201824min

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