Are We Still Heading for a Recession? w/ David Rosenberg

Are We Still Heading for a Recession? w/ David Rosenberg

🔥 Get FREE ACCESS to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/41tyn6M. David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, joins Ash Bennington to share his views on the current state of the economy, a growing disconnect between supply and demand, and what it means for the potential of a recession. David also discusses the bubble he sees forming in the stock market, and where he's spotting investment opportunities. Recorded on Thursday, June 20th. This episode is brought to you by TOKEN2049 Singapore. Join over 20,000 attendees for the world’s largest crypto event: TOKEN2049 Singapore on 18 to 19 September. 🔥 Visit www.realvision.com/token2049 for 15% off tickets, only with the code 'REALVISION’. Timestamps: 00:00 - Sponsor: Token2049 01:01 - Introduction of David Rosenberg 01:37 - David's perspective on the current economy 02:18 - Comparison to the 2007 economic outlook 03:33 - Recession pressures and the business cycle 04:11 - Impact of fiscal stimulus on the economy 05:25 - Credit card debt and delinquency rates 06:41 - Changes in consumer behavior and credit card balances 07:53 - The role of excess savings and stimulus checks 08:27 - San Francisco Fed report on excess savings 09:02 - Consumer revolt against high prices 10:06 - Discrepancy between current economic conditions and the Fed's statements 11:23 - Historical comparisons to 2008 and recession signals 12:34 - Overstated non-farm payrolls and data revisions 13:37 - Signs of a potential recession in various economic sectors 14:13 - GDP growth and economic activity slowing down 15:17 - Lack of catalysts for re-acceleration in growth 16:26 - Importance of supply and demand in forecasting inflation 18:11 - Expectations for disinflation and Fed rate cuts 19:20 - Discussion on current trend growth and productivity gains 21:04 - Labor force participation and its impact on the economy 22:15 - Disconnect between productivity gains and aggregate demand 23:26 - Impact of housing and consumer behavior on the economy 24:34 - Global economic conditions and their effect on US exports 25:40 - Outlook on inflation and interest rates without a recession 26:16 - Increasing unemployment rate and its impact on wages 27:23 - Supply curve dynamics leading to disinflation 28:43 - Capacity growth in the industrial sector 29:18 - Expectations for inflation to reach the Fed's target 30:26 - Implications for asset prices and the stock market 31:39 - Concentration risk and the impact of high-performing tech stocks 33:33 - Concerns about excessive valuations and investor behavior 35:08 - Importance of thematic investing and capital preservation 36:50 - Sectors with growth potential: Aerospace, defense, utilities, and healthcare 38:57 - Trading down and frugality trends among consumers 40:14 - Staples and essential sectors as investment opportunities 41:37 - Utilities as a growth area due to climate change and infrastructure needs 43:17 - The role of gold and gold mining stocks in a disinflationary environment 44:56 - Impact of passive indexation on market distortions 46:41 - Risks of bubble bursts and historical parallels 48:02 - Potential market corrections and investor psychology 50:13 - Advice on profit-taking and portfolio rebalancing 51:57 - Importance of capital preservation and conservative investing 52:36 - Final thoughts on the current market cycle 53:47 - Importance of historical context in investing decisions 54:33 - Sentiment and psychology driving market behavior 55:52 - Recommendations for protective strategies in investing Elevate your brand with Real Vision. Connect with us at partnerships@realvision.com to explore advertising possibilities. Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Adventures in Finance 18 - Bitcoin: Journey Beyond the Hype to a Universe of Applications

Adventures in Finance 18 - Bitcoin: Journey Beyond the Hype to a Universe of Applications

Bitcoin is all everyone can talk about and the public is downright hysterical about the price, but the price is not what you need to be focusing on. This week, we explore how Bitcoin and the underlying blockchain technology have opened up a universe of applications that have the potential to revolutionize entire industries and economies. In 'Things I Got Wrong', we speak with Jesse Felder, publisher of the Felder Report, about what he got wrong while holding a stock in a sector the government wanted dead. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

2 Juni 20171h 8min

Adventures in Finance 17 - Demographics Are Destiny

Adventures in Finance 17 - Demographics Are Destiny

Neil Howe isn't only a household name for finance-types, he coined the term "Millennials" and literally wrote the book on generational analysis. This week, he shares his insights on where we stand in his Fourth Turning framework and what it means for markets and society. In 'Things I Got Wrong', Simon Mikhailovich, Founding Partner of Toqueville Bullion Reserve, shares what he got wrong about liquidity and leverage during 2007. (A very special thanks and congratulations to our producer, James, and his Mrs. on the arrival of their baby girl, Hayley!) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

26 Maj 20171h 9min

Adventures in Finance 16 - Having Reservations: US Restaurant Revenues Signal Recession Risk

Adventures in Finance 16 - Having Reservations: US Restaurant Revenues Signal Recession Risk

What if restaurant sales could predict the next recession? According to Paul Westra, Senior Research Analyst at Stifel, decades of restaurant sales data accurately predicted the last two US recessions, and the next one might be the biggest one yet. In 'Things I Got Wrong', and back by popular demand, Chris Cole, CIO of Artemis Capital Management, talks about what he got wrong in adjusting his systematic strategy to a new market regime. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

19 Maj 20171h 2min

Adventures in Finance 15 - Crises, Bubbles, Scandals: Financial History Uncensored (Part 1)

Adventures in Finance 15 - Crises, Bubbles, Scandals: Financial History Uncensored (Part 1)

"The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see", Sir Winston Churchill. Men and women of historical significance understood the importance of history. Tim Price, partner and Director of Investment at PFP Wealth Management and author of Investing Through the Looking Glass, kicks off our extended look at the history of financial crises and scandals, and what they can tell us about the future. In 'Things I Got Wrong', Alex Gurevich, CIO of HonTe Investments, shares what he got wrong about conflating market forecasting with other realms of expertise.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

12 Maj 20171h 15min

Adventures in Finance 14 - Feeding the Future: Debt, Demographics, & Dinner Plates

Adventures in Finance 14 - Feeding the Future: Debt, Demographics, & Dinner Plates

The agricultural industry sustains human life but is taken for granted and is subject to volatile cycles. Alan Boyce, former Soros Fund Management Director and Agtech investor, talks us through the biggest challenges facing the industry and major blind-spots few are aware of. In 'Things I Got Wrong', Daniel Want, CIO and co-founder of Prerequisite Capital Management, shares what he got wrong about the end-game in Australian real estate. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

5 Maj 20171h 8min

Adventures in Finance 13 - What Lies Beneath: Volatility in a Peaceful World

Adventures in Finance 13 - What Lies Beneath: Volatility in a Peaceful World

Volatility permeates markets, nature, and life. Yet, it is monumentally misunderstood, and often to ruinous consequences. Stephen Diggle, Founder of Vulpes Investment Management, and Chris Cole, Managing Partner at Artemis Capital Management, get at the heart of what individual investors need to know about volatility. 'In Things I Got Wrong', Chris Martenson, Founder of PeakProsperity.com, shares what he got wrong with market structure and communicating emotionally charged ideas. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

28 Apr 20171h 13min

Adventures in Finance 12 - Bass and Burbank, A Masterclass

Adventures in Finance 12 - Bass and Burbank, A Masterclass

Learn from hedge fund legends as Kyle Bass interviews John Burbank III to reveal insights and ideas that differentiate truly independent market thinkers from amateur speculators. In 'Things I Got Wrong', John Netto, the Protean Trader and Author of The Global Macro Edge, discusses his error in preparing for catalysts and the evaluation framework that sprung from this experience. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

21 Apr 20171h 7min

Adventures in Finance 11 - Broken Promises: The Impending Global Pension Crisis

Adventures in Finance 11 - Broken Promises: The Impending Global Pension Crisis

The financial system will soon witness a collision between an unstoppable force and an immovable object. Pensions around the world are being crushed under the weight of trillions in unfunded liabilities while hundreds of millions of Baby Boomers are advancing to retirement in ever greater numbers, creating a perfect storm for the next crisis that is all but mathematically certain to happen. In 'Things I Got Wrong', Preston Pysh (@PrestonPysh), co-host of The Investors Podcast, shares crucial lessons about applying value investing principles in times of crisis. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

14 Apr 20171h 10min

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