Are We Still Heading for a Recession? w/ David Rosenberg

Are We Still Heading for a Recession? w/ David Rosenberg

🔥 Get FREE ACCESS to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/41tyn6M. David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, joins Ash Bennington to share his views on the current state of the economy, a growing disconnect between supply and demand, and what it means for the potential of a recession. David also discusses the bubble he sees forming in the stock market, and where he's spotting investment opportunities. Recorded on Thursday, June 20th. This episode is brought to you by TOKEN2049 Singapore. Join over 20,000 attendees for the world’s largest crypto event: TOKEN2049 Singapore on 18 to 19 September. 🔥 Visit www.realvision.com/token2049 for 15% off tickets, only with the code 'REALVISION’. Timestamps: 00:00 - Sponsor: Token2049 01:01 - Introduction of David Rosenberg 01:37 - David's perspective on the current economy 02:18 - Comparison to the 2007 economic outlook 03:33 - Recession pressures and the business cycle 04:11 - Impact of fiscal stimulus on the economy 05:25 - Credit card debt and delinquency rates 06:41 - Changes in consumer behavior and credit card balances 07:53 - The role of excess savings and stimulus checks 08:27 - San Francisco Fed report on excess savings 09:02 - Consumer revolt against high prices 10:06 - Discrepancy between current economic conditions and the Fed's statements 11:23 - Historical comparisons to 2008 and recession signals 12:34 - Overstated non-farm payrolls and data revisions 13:37 - Signs of a potential recession in various economic sectors 14:13 - GDP growth and economic activity slowing down 15:17 - Lack of catalysts for re-acceleration in growth 16:26 - Importance of supply and demand in forecasting inflation 18:11 - Expectations for disinflation and Fed rate cuts 19:20 - Discussion on current trend growth and productivity gains 21:04 - Labor force participation and its impact on the economy 22:15 - Disconnect between productivity gains and aggregate demand 23:26 - Impact of housing and consumer behavior on the economy 24:34 - Global economic conditions and their effect on US exports 25:40 - Outlook on inflation and interest rates without a recession 26:16 - Increasing unemployment rate and its impact on wages 27:23 - Supply curve dynamics leading to disinflation 28:43 - Capacity growth in the industrial sector 29:18 - Expectations for inflation to reach the Fed's target 30:26 - Implications for asset prices and the stock market 31:39 - Concentration risk and the impact of high-performing tech stocks 33:33 - Concerns about excessive valuations and investor behavior 35:08 - Importance of thematic investing and capital preservation 36:50 - Sectors with growth potential: Aerospace, defense, utilities, and healthcare 38:57 - Trading down and frugality trends among consumers 40:14 - Staples and essential sectors as investment opportunities 41:37 - Utilities as a growth area due to climate change and infrastructure needs 43:17 - The role of gold and gold mining stocks in a disinflationary environment 44:56 - Impact of passive indexation on market distortions 46:41 - Risks of bubble bursts and historical parallels 48:02 - Potential market corrections and investor psychology 50:13 - Advice on profit-taking and portfolio rebalancing 51:57 - Importance of capital preservation and conservative investing 52:36 - Final thoughts on the current market cycle 53:47 - Importance of historical context in investing decisions 54:33 - Sentiment and psychology driving market behavior 55:52 - Recommendations for protective strategies in investing Elevate your brand with Real Vision. Connect with us at partnerships@realvision.com to explore advertising possibilities. Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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New U.S. Tariffs, Rising Inflation Fears & Powell’s Testimony Ahead - PALvatar Market Recap, February 10, 2025

New U.S. Tariffs, Rising Inflation Fears & Powell’s Testimony Ahead - PALvatar Market Recap, February 10, 2025

🔥 Get Raoul Pal's FREE PDF report https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe. Welcome to Palvatar Market Recap, your go-to daily briefing on the latest market movements, global macro shifts, and crypto trends—powered by Raoul Pal’s AI avatar, Palvatar. Markets Kick Off the Week with Tariffs, Inflation & Fed Uncertainty Monday starts with more tariffs. Trump just announced a 25% levy on steel & aluminum imports, with more to come this week. Canada is in the crosshairs, and investors are bracing for the potential fallout of an escalating trade war. 📊 Inflation concerns mount ahead of Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report—one-year inflation expectations hit their highest levels since late 2023. 🏛️ All eyes on Jerome Powell as he testifies before Congress this week. How will tariffs impact Fed policy? 💼 Friday’s mixed jobs data—slower job growth but a surprise drop in unemployment—adds to market uncertainty. It’s shaping up to be a volatile week. Stay ahead with today’s market recap. 🎧 🔹 Why tune in? Stay ahead of market-moving developments with concise, data-driven insights. 🔹 Who should listen? Traders, investors, and macro enthusiasts looking for real-time market intelligence. 🍌 Get your Banana Zone swag at the Real Vision merch store: https://shop.realvision.com Unlock the potential to showcase your brand to our global audience. Contact us at partnerships@realvision.com for advertising inquiries.  Disclaimer: These views are generated by AI and do not represent Raoul Pal’s personal opinions. For Raoul’s latest insights, check out his official videos, reports, and tweets. Connect with Raoul: Twitter (X): https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI  Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/raoulgmi/  LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/raoul-pal-real-vision/  Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Twitter: https://rvtv.io/twitter Instagram: https://rvtv.io/instagram Web: 🔥 https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5Pw Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

10 Feb 3min

REKT Vision: Alt Season Canceled? BTC Dominance Hits 4-Year High

REKT Vision: Alt Season Canceled? BTC Dominance Hits 4-Year High

🔥 TOKEN2049: Grab your tickets at dubai.token2049.com with promo code REALVISION for an exclusive 10% off—only while tickets last 👉 *Use code "realvision15" to get 15% OFF tickets for Consensus 2025 in Hong Kong:* https://coindesk.com/consensus-hk ​​👉 Get Raoul Pal's FREE report + 30 days of free access to The Exponentialist https://rvtv.io/40wvAe5 Canary Labs and rektguy co-founders Ovie "OSF" Faruq and Michael "Mando" Anderson, also the creator of the Mando Minutes newsletter, are back to discuss the narratives and themes driving the crypto market right now. On the latest REKT Vision, they look at bitcoin dominance reaching its highest level since early 2021, the latest US jobs report, crypto ETF activity, and much more. 📣 This episode is sponsored by TOKEN2049. Join 15,000 attendees and over 200 exhibitors from 30 April to 1 May at TOKEN2049 Dubai, the premier crypto event of the year. Raoul Pal and over 200 leading voices in crypto will take the stage, as TOKEN2049 takes over the majestic Madinat Jumeirah in Dubai. Be part of two days of unparalleled networking, groundbreaking insights, and truly immersive experiences you won’t want to miss. With over 500 side events, Dubai will be the industry’s focal point—and the place to be for everyone in crypto this April. Grab your tickets at dubai.token2049.com with promo code REALVISION for an exclusive 10% off—only while tickets last 📣 This episode is brought to you thank you to Consensus. Crypto’s most influential event is coming to Asia. Consensus Hong Kong 2025—the #1 destination for dealflow—will take place February 18-20. Curated by CoinDesk, this event brings together global leaders, innovators, investors, and brands in the heart of Asia’s financial hub. With unparalleled networking opportunities and exclusive access to top decision-makers, Consensus Hong Kong is where partnerships are forged, deals are secured, and the future of digital assets is shaped. Whether you're an investor, founder, or executive, this is your chance to connect with the biggest names in the industry and make valuable connections that will drive your business forward. 👉 Don't miss your chance to be at the center of the Web3 movement. Take 15% off your registration with code REALVISION15. Register now at coindesk.com/consensus-hk to secure your spot and be part of the conversations shaping the future of crypto and digital assets. Elevate your brand with Real Vision. Connect with us at partnerships@realvision.com to explore advertising possibilities. About Real Vision™: We arm you with the knowledge, tools, and network to succeed on your financial journey. Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Website: https://www.realvision.com/join Twitter: https://rvtv.io/twitter Instagram: https://rvtv.io/instagram Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/linkedin 👉 Join our Discord channel and meet like-minded people: discord.com/invite/kYQY2Nd45Y Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

8 Feb 1h 1min

PALvatar Market Recap - February 7, 2025: U.S. Jobs Report Hits, Amazon Misses & Germany Stumbles Again

PALvatar Market Recap - February 7, 2025: U.S. Jobs Report Hits, Amazon Misses & Germany Stumbles Again

🔥 Get Raoul Pal's FREE PDF report https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe. Welcome to Palvatar Market Recap, your go-to daily briefing on the latest market movements, global macro shifts, and crypto trends—powered by Raoul Pal’s AI avatar, Palvatar. Markets Brace for U.S. Jobs Report & Fed Rate Implications It’s Nonfarm Payrolls day—investors are watching closely as 170K new jobs are expected for January, down from December’s 256K. With unemployment forecasted at 4.1%, today’s data could set the tone for Fed policy and market sentiment going forward. Expect big moves. 📉 Meanwhile, Amazon disappoints on earnings, joining Microsoft & Alphabet in a rough reporting season for tech giants. 🇩🇪 Germany’s industrial production plunges 2.4% MoM—the sharpest drop since July, reversing yesterday’s optimism. 🇫🇷 France’s trade deficit shrinks to its lowest level since 2020, thanks to rising exports. 🇨🇳 China’s forex reserves rise, but the yuan weakens as geopolitical tensions remain. That’s a wrap for the week—have a great weekend & see you Monday! 🎧 🍌 Get your Banana Zone swag at the Real Vision merch store: https://shop.realvision.com Unlock the potential to showcase your brand to our global audience. Contact us at partnerships@realvision.com for advertising inquiries.  Disclaimer: These views are generated by AI and do not represent Raoul Pal’s personal opinions. For Raoul’s latest insights, check out his official videos, reports, and tweets. Connect with Raoul: Twitter (X): https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI  Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/raoulgmi/  LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/raoul-pal-real-vision/  Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Twitter: https://rvtv.io/twitter Instagram: https://rvtv.io/instagram Web: 🔥 https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5Pw Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

8 Feb 4min

PALvatar Market Recap - February 6, 2025: Germany’s Factory Boom, UK Rate Cuts & Falling U.S. Yields ft. Raoul Pal's AI Avatar

PALvatar Market Recap - February 6, 2025: Germany’s Factory Boom, UK Rate Cuts & Falling U.S. Yields ft. Raoul Pal's AI Avatar

👉 Get Raoul Pal's FREE Report https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Markets Rally on Germany’s Factory Rebound & UK Rate Cut Hopes Surprise upside from Germany’s factory orders—a 6.9% surge in December, smashing expectations of 2% growth. Large-scale transport and machinery orders fueled the rebound, lifting global equities and pushing the DAX up 1%. Meanwhile, the Bank of England is expected to cut rates by 25bps, bringing them down to 4.5%. Investors are watching closely for signals on inflation and economic stagnation in the UK. 📉 In the U.S., Treasury yields dip as ISM Services PMI falls to 52.8, signaling softer-than-expected service sector activity. Traders are now focused on today’s jobless claims and tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls report, which could set the tone for Fed policy. Markets are shifting fast—stay ahead with today’s recap! 🎧 🔹 Why tune in? Stay ahead of market-moving developments with concise, data-driven insights. 🔹 Who should listen? Traders, investors, and macro enthusiasts looking for real-time market intelligence. 🍌 Get your Banana Zone swag at the Real Vision merch store: https://shop.realvision.com Unlock the potential to showcase your brand to our global audience. Contact us at partnerships@realvision.com for advertising inquiries.  Disclaimer: These views are generated by AI and do not represent Raoul Pal’s personal opinions. For Raoul’s latest insights, check out his official videos, reports, and tweets. Connect with Raoul: Twitter (X): https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI  Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/raoulgmi/  LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/raoul-pal-real-vision/  Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Twitter: https://rvtv.io/twitter Instagram: https://rvtv.io/instagram Web: 🔥 https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5Pw Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

6 Feb 3min

PALvatar Market Recap - February 5, 2025: Eurozone Expands, Japan’s Wages Surge & Fed Rate Cut Bets Grow ft. Raoul Pal's AI Avatar

PALvatar Market Recap - February 5, 2025: Eurozone Expands, Japan’s Wages Surge & Fed Rate Cut Bets Grow ft. Raoul Pal's AI Avatar

🔥 Get Raoul Pal's FREE PDF report https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe. Welcome to Palvatar Market Recap, your go-to daily briefing on the latest market movements, global macro shifts, and crypto trends—powered by Raoul Pal’s AI avatar, Palvatar. Markets are reacting to Eurozone’s Composite PMI hitting 50.2, signaling its first expansion since August 2024—driven by service sector gains despite Italy’s continued contraction. Meanwhile, Japan reports strong wage growth (4.8% YoY) and an upward revision of its Services PMI to 53.0, fueling speculation of another rate hike from the Bank of Japan. On the geopolitical front, Trump’s tariffs on China are now in effect, but similar levies on Canada and Mexico are postponed as border security deals emerge. Meanwhile, JOLTS job openings fell short of expectations at 7.6M, reinforcing market bets on a Fed rate cut. 💰 In FX markets, EUR/USD climbs above $1.04 as recession fears ease and traders anticipate a dovish Fed shift. Big week ahead—U.S. non-farm payrolls coming soon. Stay tuned for the latest market insights! 🎧 🔹 Why tune in? Stay ahead of market-moving developments with concise, data-driven insights. 🔹 Who should listen? Traders, investors, and macro enthusiasts looking for real-time market intelligence. 🍌 Get your Banana Zone swag at the Real Vision merch store: https://shop.realvision.com Unlock the potential to showcase your brand to our global audience. Contact us at partnerships@realvision.com for advertising inquiries. Disclaimer: These views are generated by AI and do not represent Raoul Pal’s personal opinions. For Raoul’s latest insights, check out his official videos, reports, and tweets. Connect with Raoul: Twitter (X): https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/raoulgmi/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/raoul-pal-real-vision/ Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Twitter: https://rvtv.io/twitter Instagram: https://rvtv.io/instagram Web: 🔥 https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5Pw Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

5 Feb 3min

PALvatar Market Recap - February 4, 2025: Tariff Wars, China Strikes Back & U.S. Manufacturing Rebounds  ft. Raoul Pal AI Avatar

PALvatar Market Recap - February 4, 2025: Tariff Wars, China Strikes Back & U.S. Manufacturing Rebounds ft. Raoul Pal AI Avatar

🔥 Get Raoul Pal's FREE PDF report https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe. Tariff Suspensions, China’s Retaliation & U.S. Manufacturing Rebound Markets are digesting Trump’s 30-day tariff suspension for Mexico & Canada, but the real action is with China’s countermeasures. With new 10% tariffs on Chinese imports, Beijing is hitting back with fresh levies on U.S. goods and an antitrust probe into Google. Meanwhile, U.S. manufacturing is turning a corner—both S&P Global’s PMI and ISM Manufacturing point to a long-awaited expansion. Elsewhere, France’s deficit is shrinking, and Japan’s bond yields are surging as market sentiment shifts. What’s next? JOLTS Jobs Report this Tuesday will give us more clues. Tune in for the full breakdown. 🍌 Get your Banana Zone swag at the Real Vision merch store: https://shop.realvision.com Unlock the potential to showcase your brand to our global audience. Contact us at partnerships@realvision.com for advertising inquiries. Disclaimer: These views are generated by AI and do not represent Raoul Pal’s personal opinions. For Raoul’s latest insights, check out his official videos, reports, and tweets. Connect with Raoul: Twitter (X): https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/raoulgmi/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/raoul-pal-real-vision/ Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Twitter: https://rvtv.io/twitter Instagram: https://rvtv.io/instagram Web: 🔥 https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5Pw Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

4 Feb 3min

Macro Monday: Trump Pulls the Tariff Trigger ft. Andreas Steno Larsen & Mikkel Rosenvold

Macro Monday: Trump Pulls the Tariff Trigger ft. Andreas Steno Larsen & Mikkel Rosenvold

🔥 TOKEN2049: Grab your tickets at dubai.token2049.com with promo code REALVISION for an exclusive 10% off—only while tickets last 👉 *Use code "realvision15" to get 15% OFF tickets for Consensus 2025 in Hong Kong:* https://coindesk.com/consensus-hk ​​👉 Get Raoul Pal's FREE report + 30 days of free access to The Exponentialist https://rvtv.io/40wvAe5 Steno Research founder and CEO Andreas Steno Larsen is back with his co-host Mikkel Rosenvold, the firm's partner and head of geopolitics, to break down today's volatility after U.S. President Trump announced widespread tariffs and discuss what might happen next. 📣 This episode is sponsored by TOKEN2049. Join 15,000 attendees and over 200 exhibitors from 30 April to 1 May at TOKEN2049 Dubai, the premier crypto event of the year. Raoul Pal and over 200 leading voices in crypto will take the stage, as TOKEN2049 takes over the majestic Madinat Jumeirah in Dubai. Be part of two days of unparalleled networking, groundbreaking insights, and truly immersive experiences you won’t want to miss. With over 500 side events, Dubai will be the industry’s focal point—and the place to be for everyone in crypto this April. Grab your tickets at dubai.token2049.com with promo code REALVISION for an exclusive 10% off—only while tickets last 📣 This episode is brought to you thank you to Consensus. Crypto’s most influential event is coming to Asia. Consensus Hong Kong 2025—the #1 destination for dealflow—will take place February 18-20. Curated by CoinDesk, this event brings together global leaders, innovators, investors, and brands in the heart of Asia’s financial hub. With unparalleled networking opportunities and exclusive access to top decision-makers, Consensus Hong Kong is where partnerships are forged, deals are secured, and the future of digital assets is shaped. Whether you're an investor, founder, or executive, this is your chance to connect with the biggest names in the industry and make valuable connections that will drive your business forward. 👉 Don't miss your chance to be at the center of the Web3 movement. Take 15% off your registration with code REALVISION15. Register now at coindesk.com/consensus-hk to secure your spot and be part of the conversations shaping the future of crypto and digital assets. Elevate your brand with Real Vision. Connect with us at partnerships@realvision.com to explore advertising possibilities. Music license ID: WJ6TRPVHFD About Real Vision™: We arm you with the knowledge, tools, and network to succeed on your financial journey. Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Website: https://www.realvision.com/join Twitter: https://rvtv.io/twitter Instagram: https://rvtv.io/instagram Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/linkedin Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

3 Feb 36min

PALvatar Market Recap - February 3, 2025: Your Daily Macro & Crypto Update ft. Raoul Pal's AI Avatar "PALvatar"

PALvatar Market Recap - February 3, 2025: Your Daily Macro & Crypto Update ft. Raoul Pal's AI Avatar "PALvatar"

🔥 Get Raoul Pal's FREE PDF report https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe. Welcome to Palvatar Market Recap, your go-to daily briefing on the latest market movements, global macro shifts, and crypto trends—powered by Raoul Pal’s AI avatar, Palvatar. In this episode, we break down the major market reactions to newly imposed U.S. tariffs, global equity volatility, and sector-specific risks. As geopolitical tensions rise, we analyze how tariffs on Canada, Mexico, China, and potential EU targets are shaping inflation, economic growth, and investor sentiment. We also look ahead to key macro data releases, including the ISM Manufacturing PMI and the U.S. jobs report, which could further drive market action. 🔹 Why tune in? Stay ahead of market-moving developments with concise, data-driven insights. 🔹 Who should listen? Traders, investors, and macro enthusiasts looking for real-time market intelligence. 🍌 Get your Banana Zone swag at the Real Vision merch store: https://shop.realvision.com Unlock the potential to showcase your brand to our global audience. Contact us at partnerships@realvision.com for advertising inquiries. Disclaimer: These views are generated by AI and do not represent Raoul Pal’s personal opinions. For Raoul’s latest insights, check out his official videos, reports, and tweets. Connect with Raoul: Twitter (X): https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/raoulgmi/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/raoul-pal-real-vision/ Connect with Real Vision™ Online: Twitter: https://rvtv.io/twitter Instagram: https://rvtv.io/instagram Web: 🔥 https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5Pw Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

3 Feb 3min

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