SI317: From Hurricanes to Hedge Strategies: The Hidden Common Factors ft. Richard Brennan

SI317: From Hurricanes to Hedge Strategies: The Hidden Common Factors ft. Richard Brennan

This episode dives deep into the intricacies of trend following strategies and their connection to complex adaptive systems. Richard Brennan and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen explore how these systems respond to market signals and the importance of boundaries in shaping investor behavior. They discuss the challenges faced by trend followers in the current market environment, particularly in October, where many strategies have encountered difficulties. The conversation touches on significant topics such as risk management, diversification, and the role of outliers in financial markets, emphasizing that these seemingly anomalous events are actually a natural part of the market's fabric. With insights drawn from recent literature, including works by John Holland and Jeffrey West, the episode highlights the necessity of adapting to evolving market signals and the dynamic interplay between agents within these complex systems.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfoliohere.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:40 - Our thoughts go to Florida

03:39 - A rough time for trend following

08:39 - Industry performance update

12:14 - Q1, Shahar: Regarding using long only trend following as an overlay to broad market ETFs

23:38 - Applying Warren Buffett's philosophy to trend following

32:33 - Setting limits in your trade following strategy

40:47 - What complex adaptive system can teach us about trend following

01:06:22 - What is up for next week?

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights...

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GM95: When Consensus Gets the Cycle Wrong ft. Dario Perkins

GM95: When Consensus Gets the Cycle Wrong ft. Dario Perkins

In this episode, Alan Dunne is joined by Dario Perkins to examine why the global macro consensus may be fundamentally misreading the current cycle. The conversation moves from US fiscal stimulus and F...

28 Jan 1h 3min

SI384: Building an Inflation-Proof Portfolio ft. Yoav Git

SI384: Building an Inflation-Proof Portfolio ft. Yoav Git

In this episode, Niels hosts Yoav Git to explore inflation risk, bond fragility, and the changing role of trend following in a world defined by supply shocks and declining trust. Drawing on recent res...

24 Jan 1h 1min

IL45: Where Markets Reveal Human Error ft. Alex Imas

IL45: Where Markets Reveal Human Error ft. Alex Imas

Today we discuss one of the most popular and influential economic books of the last few decades - The Winner’s Curse. Originally published in 1994, a new version has just been released and we are join...

21 Jan 54min

SI383: When Signals Matter More Than Stories ft. Nick Baltas

SI383: When Signals Matter More Than Stories ft. Nick Baltas

Today, we are joined by Nick Baltas to examine how narratives, signals, and structural design are reshaping trend following at the start of 2026. The conversation moves from investor storytelling and ...

17 Jan 59min

GM94: When Capitalism Reboots and Crashes Again ft. Mark Blyth

GM94: When Capitalism Reboots and Crashes Again ft. Mark Blyth

As the long era of neoliberal certainty frays, Mark Blyth argues that we are drifting back toward a 19th century world of rival blocs, imperial habits and dangerous illusions. In this conversation, he...

14 Jan 1h 7min

SI382: The End of Globalization, the Rise of Trends ft. Richard Brennan

SI382: The End of Globalization, the Rise of Trends ft. Richard Brennan

The new year opens with a shift hiding in plain sight. As globalization recedes and the world fractures into spheres of influence, Rich argues this isn’t just a political story - it’s a structural shi...

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GM93: The Calm Before a Systemic Reckoning ft. William White

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William White returns to assess a world edging closer to systemic stress. Drawing on decades advising central banks, he describes a macro regime defined not by temporary shocks, but by a deep reversal...

7 Jan 1h 5min

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3 Jan 1h 3min

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