The Rational Reminder Podcast28 Nov 2024

Episode 333 - The Presidential Puzzle: Trump's Win and Expected Stock Returns

What does Trump's re-election mean for the markets? In this episode, Ben and Mark explore The Presidential Puzzle, a phenomenon revealing that equity risk premiums have historically been higher under Democratic presidencies than Republican ones. With Trump returning to office as the 47th U.S. president, they examine how voter risk aversion shapes political outcomes and market expectations, offering surprising insights into this intriguing connection between politics and investing. They also delve into market timing pitfalls, the importance of diversification, and how financial advisors can help investors navigate emotionally charged decisions. To wrap up, Ben and Mark reflect on listener perspectives and explore the intriguing future of Bitcoin in finance. Tune in to learn what Trump's win means for expected stock returns and more!

Key Points From This Episode:

(0:00:18) Mark and Ben's experiences at the Physician Financial Independence Conference.

(0:06:53) Republicans vs. Democrats: What the election results mean for the stock market.

(0:09:09) The Presidential Puzzle and how belief informs asset choices among voters.

(0:15:12) How risk aversion and the economy impact election outcomes and expected returns.

(0:20:08) What investors should and should not do with this information.

(0:24:38) The dangers of making financial decisions based on emotional predictions.

(0:30:02) Unpacking the relationship between global risk aversion and U.S. presidencies.

(0:31:20) Our aftershow segment: digging into recent reviews, the podcast topic puzzle, Ben's recent trip to Boston, and Bitcoin.

Links From Today's Episode:

Meet with PWL Capital — https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p

Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582
Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/

Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/

Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemind
Rational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder

Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/

Rational Reminder Email — info@rationalreminder.ca
Benjamin Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/

Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix

Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/

Cameron Passmore — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/

Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore

Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/

Mark McGrath on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/markmcgrathcfp/
Mark McGrath on X — https://x.com/MarkMcGrathCFP

Episode 217: The Expected Returns of Financial Literacy — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/217

Episode 313: When Should You Hire a Financial Advisor? — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/313
Episode 124: Ľuboš Pástor — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/124

Papers From Today's Episode:

'Belief Disagreement and Portfolio Choice' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3934061

'Political Cycles and Stock Returns' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2920401

'The Presidential Puzzle: Political Cycles and the Stock Market' — https://www.jstor.org/stable/3648176

Det här avsnittet är hämtat från ett öppet RSS-flöde och publiceras inte av Podme. Det kan innehålla reklam.

Avsnitt(449)

The Finances of Marriage | #426

In this episode, Ben Felix, Dan Bortolotti, and Ben Wilson take a research-driven look at the finances of marriage, from spending personalities and prenuptial agreements to wedding costs, joint accoun...

10 Sep 1h 8min

The Ethics Problem in Financial Services (Dr. Moira Somers & Philippa Hann) | #425

In this episode, we're joined by Philippa Hann and Dr. Moira Somers, co-authors of The Fault Lines of Finance: Understanding and Preventing Financial Misconduct, for a deep dive into why good people c...

3 Sep 1h 23min

50 Years of Evidence-Based Investing (w/ David Booth) | #424

In this episode, we welcome back David Booth, Co-Founder of Dimensional Fund Advisors and author of Stay Calm: Learn to Embrace Uncertainty in Investing and Life. David reflects on his remarkable care...

27 Aug 1h 5min

The Future of AI in the Workplace | Special Episode (Mike Sullivan and Vinay Gidwaney)

In this special episode, we are joined by Mike Sullivan, Co-Founder and Chief Growth Officer at OneDigital, and Vinay Gidwaney, OneDigital's Chief Product Officer, to discuss their new book, Workforce...

25 Aug 1h 23min

The Biggest Myths in Personal Finance

In this episode, Ben Felix and Dan Bortolotti take on 10 of the biggest myths in personal finance and investing. From the idea that young people should save every possible dollar to benefit from compo...

20 Aug 1h 13min

80 Years of Financial Knowledge in 53 Minutes | #422 (Bill Bernstein)

In this episode, we welcome back William Bernstein to discuss the final book of his longtime friend Jonathan Clements, Money and Me. Bill reflects on Jonathan's ideas about spending, happiness, retire...

13 Aug 53min

Barry Ritholtz: "90% of financial products are crap" | #421

Barry Ritholtz returns to the Rational Reminder podcast to discuss the biggest mistakes investors make—and why avoiding them may matter more than finding the next great investment. Drawing on decades ...

6 Aug 1h 28min

Answering Your Financial Questions | #420

In this Ask Me Anything episode, Ben Felix, Ben Wilson, and Louai Bibi tackle a wide-ranging collection of listener questions spanning investing, retirement, family finance, and financial planning. Al...

30 Juli 1h 35min