Ten foreign policy predictions for 2025

Ten foreign policy predictions for 2025

2024 was a year of intense geopolitical shifts and growing uncertainty. But one thing remains consistent: ECFR’s ever-popular predictions podcast. In our first outing for 2025, Mark Leonard and ECFR research director Jeremy Shapiro team up to reflect on the accuracy of last year’s predictions—and, with crystal balls in hand, try to decipher which forces will shape 2025. Is this the year they finally achieve 10/10?


Let us know if you think they missed something! Write your own predictions in to Mark via mark.leonard@ecfr.eu.


Bookshelf:

A Nasty Little War: The West's Fight to Reverse the Russian Revolution by Anna Reid


Regime Change: Toward a Postliberal Future by Patrick J. Deneen


2024: The year we embrace predictable surprise by Mark Leonard and Jeremy Shapiro


This podcast was recorded on 27 December 2024

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Crisis and control in Gaza and the West Bank

Crisis and control in Gaza and the West Bank

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Hugh Lovatt, ECFR policy fellow, and Tahani Mustafa, visiting fellow in ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme, to discuss Israel’s military action in Gaza ...

18 Juli 202528min

Tariff tensions: Avoiding an EU-US trade war

Tariff tensions: Avoiding an EU-US trade war

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Tobias Gehrke, ECFR senior policy fellow, for a 15-minute Emergency Room episode dissecting the collapse of an EU-US trade deal. President Donald Trump’s last-minu...

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Beyond the battlefield: Europe’s long-term strategy for Ukraine

Beyond the battlefield: Europe’s long-term strategy for Ukraine

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Jana Kobzova, ECFR senior policy fellow, and Camille Grand, ECFR distinguished policy fellow, to discuss ECFR’s new European Security Programme and the war in Ukra...

11 Juli 202526min

Hidden empire: How America wields economic power

Hidden empire: How America wields economic power

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Henry Farrell, ECFR council member and professor at John Hopkins University, to discuss Henry’s new book “Underground Economy”, co-authored by Abraham Newman. In t...

4 Juli 202534min

Live from Warsaw: Polling European politics under Trump’s shadow

Live from Warsaw: Polling European politics under Trump’s shadow

Recorded live from ECFR’s Annual Council Meeting 2025, this week’s podcast features Mark Leonard in conversation with Ivan Krastev, Chair of the Centre for Liberal Strategies in Sofia and permanent fe...

28 Juni 202529min

NATO summit 2025: How Europe can secure its future

NATO summit 2025: How Europe can secure its future

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Camille Grand, former NATO assistant secretary general and ECFR distinguished policy fellow, for a 15-minute Emergency Room episode dissecting the high-stakes NATO...

25 Juni 202511min

What to expect from the conflict between Israel and Iran

What to expect from the conflict between Israel and Iran

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by the deputy director of ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme, Ellie Geranmayeh, and Eran Etzion, policy planning director for the Israeli foreign ministry ...

19 Juni 202535min

Israel attacks Iran: Europe’s role in stopping a dangerous regional war

Israel attacks Iran: Europe’s role in stopping a dangerous regional war

Mark Leonard is joined by Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy director of ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme, for a 15-minute Emergency Room episode diving into Israel’s massive overnight attack on Ir...

13 Juni 202517min

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