When Risks Become Reality: 2024 Extreme Weather

Florida flooding four months after hurricane Milton - February 2, 2025Meteorology Matters summarizes the ongoing challenges faced by communities in Florida following Hurricanes Helene and Milton in October 2024. While some recovery efforts have been completed, many areas, particularly in Pasco County and on Anna Maria Island, continue to grapple with severe flooding, economic strain, and bureaucratic hurdles. The long-term implications include potential population shifts and escalating insurance costs.Key Themes and Findings:Devastating Flooding and Prolonged Recovery:Hurricane Milton, which hit October 9-10, brought significant rainfall (over 15 inches in some areas like Tampa to Daytona Beach) leading to severe flooding, especially in the interior of Florida due to its flat geography."Hurricane Milton, which struck on October 9-10, plunged parts of Florida, from Tampa to Daytona Beach, under more than 15 inches of rain."The Withlacoochee River reached its third-highest crest on record (19.68 feet) ten days after the storm.Flood warnings in areas like Ridge Manor remained active for 34 consecutive days, highlighting the persistent nature of the flooding.Some areas of Pasco County, specifically in Dade City and near Zephyrhills, remain flooded 4 months after the storms.Properties in neighborhoods like Hickory Hills in Dade City are still partially underwater, with some residents needing to drive through neighbors’ yards or use boats to access their homes."Dozens of properties in the Hickory Hills neighborhood of Dade City remain partially underwater, including Victor Lemus', who has to drive through a neighbor's yard to access the road."Struggling Communities and Logistical Challenges:Communities are facing significant logistical issues, with residents resorting to using airboats to reach polling places during the 2024 presidential election."Overwhelmed by such water levels, residents found themselves not just facing flooded homes but also desperate logistical challenges to vote; many opted for airboat rides to cast their ballots during the 2024 presidential election."The lack of accessibility to flooded properties in Pasco County raises concerns about medical emergencies and fire hazards, with residents expressing worries about first responders being unable to reach them.Slow and Inadequate Recovery Efforts:Recovery efforts for local governments and public utilities have been slow.State-owned pumps initially used to remove water in Pasco County were redeployed in December, leaving residents to deal with the flooding on their own."According to a Pasco County spokesperson, state-owned pumps were used to help remove water from these areas following Hurricanes Helene and Milton... Those pumps, however, were 're-deployed' elsewhere in December..."Pasco County authorities cite that they cannot pump water from private property, leaving residents feeling abandoned and blaming the county and FEMA for not providing needed assistance."the flooding is on private property, and the county is not able to pump water from private property.""They told FOX 13 they haven't been able to get any assistance from FEMA, or from their local and state elected officials."Residents in Pasco County also believe infrastructure and stormwater management have not kept pace with growth which has exacerbated the flooding issue."They said infrastructure in the area hasn’t kept up with explosive growth, and stormwater from elsewhere is ending up trapped there with nowhere to go."

2 Feb 14min

Oklahoma Senate Bill 158 - Weather Tracker LicensureSubject: Analysis of Senate Bill 158, concerning the regulation and licensure of professional severe weather trackers in Oklahoma.Sources:KFOR News Article: "Bill targets storm chasers with licensure requirements" (referred to as "KFOR Article")Senate Bill 158 Text (referred to as "SB 158")1. OverviewSenate Bill 158 (SB 158), authored by Senator Mark Mann, aims to create a regulatory framework for "professional severe weather trackers" in Oklahoma. The bill, if passed, would establish a licensing process, set requirements for those who track severe weather, and grant certain privileges to licensed trackers, including the ability to operate with emergency vehicle status during significant weather events. The stated goal is to enhance safety by distinguishing professional trackers from amateur enthusiasts, and allow licensed storm trackers to act as emergency responders.2. Key Provisions of SB 158Licensing Requirement: The bill mandates that individuals operating as "professional severe weather trackers" be licensed by Service Oklahoma.Definition of "Professional Severe Weather Tracker": SB 158 defines a "professional severe weather tracker" as an individual or company hired by a qualified media outlet or affiliated with a research program at a qualified institution of higher education. They must be employed or contracted with these organizations. ("Professional severe weather tracker’ means a licensed individual or company hired or contracted with by a qualified media outlet or affiliated with a research program at a qualified institution of higher education;")Qualified Media Outlet: A qualified media outlet is defined as a television station licensed by the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) that broadcasts via various platforms (broadcast, cable, streaming). ("Qualified media outlet’ means a television station licensed by the Federal Communications Commission for the broadcast or transmission of television programming via broadcast, cable, streaming, or other platforms as recognized by the Federal Communications Commission;")Qualified Institution of Higher Education: A qualified institution is defined as any college or university regulated by the Oklahoma State Regents for Higher Education that offers a course or program in meteorology. ("Qualified institution of higher education’ means any college or university regulated by the Oklahoma State Regents for Higher Education that offers a course or program in meteorology;")Significant Weather Event: The bill defines significant weather events that trigger the special privileges of a licensed tracker, including:Enhanced, moderate, or high-risk weather days by the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center.Any tornado or severe thunderstorm watch or warning issued by the National Weather Service or the chief meteorologist of a qualified media outlet.Winter weather advisories, warnings or watches, and red flag fire warnings. ("Significant weather event’ means: a. a day of enhanced, moderate, or high risk conditions… b. any tornado or severe thunderstorm watch… c. any storm… d. a blizzard warning…e. a red flag fire warning…f. a flash flood warning or flood warning")Licensing Requirements: To obtain a license, individuals must:Pass a criminal background check.Supply a letter of endorsement from a chief meteorologist of a qualified media outlet, or a designated individual from an institution of higher education, attesting to the applicant's knowledge and experience…

1 Feb 13min

NOAA Email Chaos, Weather Funding Cuts & Stopping Science Date: Jan 30-31st 2025A newly implemented, centralized email system for federal employees, spearheaded by the Trump administration, experienced a significant security breach on or around January 30, 2025. This breach allowed external actors to send abusive and inappropriate messages to approximately 13,000 employees at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). This incident exposed serious vulnerabilities within the new system, raising concerns about its security, management, and the broader implications for federal communications. Furthermore, it highlighted controversial changes at the Office of Personnel Management (OPM), which was reportedly responsible for the system’s implementation.Key Themes and Findings:System Vulnerability and Inadequate Security:The new email system, designed to reach all 2.3 million federal employees from a single address, was "cobbled together" rapidly, lacking basic security measures or screening protocols. As one NOAA employee stated, “Goes to show you how fast this [new comms system] was cobbled together – no security or screening on this address.”Abusive and Inappropriate Content:The 13,000 NOAA employees received a barrage of offensive emails, including:An email with the subject "Resign," containing the message: "Aren’t you tired of working for a complete c*nt?”An “Important Weather Alert” about a “99% chance of shit showers” over the next four years.Crude and inflammatory messages critical of President Donald Trump and Elon Musk.Spam subscription confirmation for "Scientology Today."Links to a personal newsletter from journalist Ken Klippenstein.These messages were described as “extremely offensive,” and “vulgar.”Controversial Changes at OPM:The email system was implemented by a new team at the Office of Personnel Management (OPM), which reportedly replaced experienced staff with "lackeys from his previous ventures." This reportedly included young, inexperienced individuals from Elon Musk's previous ventures (e.g. xAI, Neuralink, and Peter Thiel’s firms).The OPM’s former Chief Information Officer, Melvin Brown II, was reportedly fired for refusing to implement the new email system.The new email system is reportedly part of a wider plan for the Trump administration to gather information on government employees and implement a “hostile takeover” of the OPM.The OPM's new system is the subject of a class-action lawsuit alleging violations of Bush-era cyber security standards.Immediate Response and Internal Review:NOAA Deputy Director of Communications Scott Smullen apologized to staff and stated, “I will report it.”Vice Admiral Nancy Hann, NOAA's deputy undersecretary for operations, confirmed the “cyber attack,” acknowledging the offensive emails and apparent “phishing attempts”. She stated, “I am sorry that you were subject to these inappropriate messages and want you to know that we take these matters very seriously.”An investigation was launched by NOAA's Office of the Chief Information Officer (OCIO) to prevent future incidents.Quotes from Sources:“Aren’t you tired of working for a complete c*nt?” (Subject line of an email sent to NOAA employees)“Goes to show you how fast this [new comms system] was cobbled together – no security or screening on this address.” (NOAA employee quote)

1 Feb 17min

Climate Change Impacts on Property Taxes and Home InsuranceImpact on Property Taxes:Reassessments: Natural disasters often lead to property reassessments, temporarily lowering the value of damaged properties and thus reducing property taxes. As stated in the Yahoo article, "natural disasters usually spur property reassessments, which temporarily lower the values of damaged properties while simultaneously reducing homeowners’ taxes."Tax Rate Increases: Municipalities might raise property tax rates to offset revenue losses from damaged properties and to fund recovery efforts. The article notes, "In areas that were not affected, tax rates were increased to help offset the loss in revenue,” and, "In Los Angeles, wildfires similarly create more expensive places with taxes to meet increased funding needs."Temporary Reductions & Refunds: Some areas provide temporary property tax reductions or refunds to homeowners who have experienced significant losses due to disasters. California, for instance, offers this relief if losses are at least $10,000 of the current market value of the property.Restoration of Value: Once rebuilt, a property’s pre-damaged value is typically restored.Variations in Laws: Property tax relief measures vary by location, with states like New York enacting specific climate change property tax relief bills. As the Yahoo article states, New York's "Climate Change Property Tax Relief bill... provides assessment relief to property owners within eligible municipalities."Higher Rates in Disaster-Prone Areas: "Living in a disaster-prone area can affect your property taxes in several ways. They may be assessed at a higher rate because of the cost of municipal services that include emergency response, building, and maintaining flood control infrastructure." This highlights an ongoing cost for homeowners in these regions.Impact on Home Insurance:Rising Premiums: Insurance premiums are rising, particularly in high-risk areas like flood zones and regions prone to hurricanes or wildfires. The Yahoo article quotes, "insurance premiums often rise ‘in areas with the highest risk of natural disasters such as hurricanes or wildfires."Policy Non-Renewals: Insurance companies are increasingly dropping coverage for homeowners in disaster-prone areas. The Axios article notes that the share of home insurance policies not renewed in the US ticked up to 1.06% in 2023 from 0.8% in 2018. In Los Angeles County, the increase was more significant, from 0.86% to 1.43%.Reduced Market Appeal: Properties in flood zones may see reduced market appeal unless they have mitigation measures in place and the cost of insurance rises as a result, impacting the entire real estate market.Concerns about Uninsurability: There is growing concern that some areas could become uninsurable entirely. The Axios piece includes the quote from the outgoing Senate Budget Committee chair, Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, stating that rising home non-renewals "spells trouble for property values in climate-exposed communities across the country."Climate Risk as Tangible: As noted by Jeremy Porter, "Insurance prices are often the first way that 'climate risk becomes tangible to people'."Insurers' Perspective: It is also noted that an insurer trade group argues non-renewal data is "unsuitable" for understanding climate change impacts, since it doesn't explain the reasoning for company decisions.

31 Jan 22min

Historic Gulf Coast Snowstorm - January 2025I. Historic Gulf Coast Snowstorm:Unprecedented Snowfall: The Gulf Coast experienced a rare and record-breaking snowstorm, with some areas seeing the heaviest snowfall in over a century. Several locations broke all-time records.Quotes:“Historic, city-snarling snowfall – in some cases, possibly the heaviest in more than a century – was spreading on Tuesday into coastal communities from Texas toward Florida.”"The Great Southern Snowstorm of 2025 is one of the most impactful winter storms in history for the Gulf Coast, obliterating Florida’s all-time state snowfall mark and smashing local accumulation records from middle Louisiana to western Florida."Record Snow Totals: Multiple cities experienced record snowfall, with amounts far exceeding forecasts.Examples:Pensacola, FL: 8.9 inches (all-time record, more than double the previous state record). The city of Milton, just northeast, recorded 9.8 inches, which is pending confirmation as the new state record.New Orleans, LA: 8 inches at the airport, breaking the previous record of 2.7 inches, with some areas reporting up to 11.5 inches.Mobile, AL: 7.5 inches (all-time record).Baton Rouge, LA: 6-8 inches (heaviest since 1895).Quote: ““It’s an incredible, incredible event,” said Michael Mugrage, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Mobile, Alabama, where many of the highest snowfall totals from the region were reported. “It puts it in perspective how rare this is.”Key Factors:Polar Vortex: A strong polar vortex stretched unusually far south, bringing extremely cold air from the Arctic to the Gulf Coast.Upper Level Disturbance: An upper-level disturbance moving south from Canada helped generate lift, leading to precipitation.Dry Air: Surprisingly, very dry air aloft helped the formation of snow, as it caused saturation to occur at below-freezing temperatures.Warm Gulf Waters: Unusually warm Gulf waters may have provided a higher-than-expected source of moisture, contributing to increased precipitation amounts, but also a chaotic mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain in some areas.Impacts:Travel Disruption: Roads were closed, including stretches of I-10 in Florida.Quote: “The storm system that brought so much snow also sank thermometers into record-breaking territory across the Deep South.”Record Low Temperatures: The storm also brought record low temperatures to cities in the region, with some locations experiencing the coldest temperatures since the late 19th century.Recreational Activity: Locals were seen using make-shift sleds to enjoy the rare snow.Rarity:The conditions that led to this storm are exceptionally rare in the Gulf Coast region. The chance of a similar event occurring in any given winter is estimated to be around 1%. The event is comparable to the historic storm of 1895.Quote: “With 2025 rivaling only 1895 for the historical high snowdrift on the Gulf Coast, this general kind of event might only have around a 1% of occurring in any given winter."Comparison to Historical Events: While there have been instances of snow in Florida in the past (documented as far back as the 1700s), this event was far more significant and widespread.

27 Jan 17min

Allen Media Group's Weather Strategy and Subsequent ReversalAllen Media Group (AMG), owner of The Weather Channel and numerous local television stations across the United States, initially announced a plan to eliminate nearly all local meteorologist positions at its stations. Viewer and Staff Backlash:Public Outcry: The announcement was met with swift and intense backlash from viewers, who expressed concerns about the loss of local expertise and the impact on severe weather coverage. Viewers described the plan as "greedy," "ridiculous," and "damn cheap."Concerns about Public Safety: Emily Pike, a former meteorologist at WSIL-TV 3, stated, “Local meteorologists are being replaced, which could pose serious risks, especially during severe weather events.” This speaks to a more general fear that "hubbed" weather forecasts would be insufficient during crises.Loss of Local Expertise: Viewers and some media critics argued that local meteorologists have a deeper understanding of local weather patterns, geography, and community needs, making them more effective during severe weather. As one meteorologist noted: “We know the area. We know how to forecast for the area. We know the ins and outs of hyper-local weather.”Impact on Local News and Journalism:Loss of Localism: The decision to remove local meteorologists was seen as a blow to localism in media, removing a key aspect that draws viewers to local stations. One source noted that "cutting local meteorologists 'will reduce viewership and station app use, probably in every Allen market,' not to mention driving away advertisers."Centralization Trend: AMG's actions were part of a broader trend of media consolidation and centralization, with other station groups such as Sinclair, CBS, and Gray Media making similar cost-cutting decisions.Public Service Obligation: The action was seen by some as a dereliction of duty, since "broadcast stations carry an FCC license that requires some responsibility to operate in the public interest."AMG's Reversal and Uncertain Future:Pause on Layoffs: Due to the backlash, AMG has reportedly hit pause on its plan to lay off meteorologists and outsource coverage to The Weather Channel. As one source reports: "Allen Media Group is reportedly reversing its controversial plan to ax local meteorologists and replace them with a Weather Channel feed after facing heated backlash from loyal viewers".Stations Affected (Partial List):WJRT (Flint, MI)WSIL-TV 3 (Carterville, IL)WEVV (Evansville, IN)KWWL (Waterloo, IA)KIMT (Rochester, MN/Mason City, IA)KEZI (Eugene, OR)KDRV/KDKF (Medford, OR)KHSL/KNVN (Chico / Redding, CA)WTHI (Terre Haute, IN)WLFI (West Lafayette, IN)WFFT (Fort Wayne, IN)WAAY (Huntsville, AL)KADN (Lafayette, LA)KITV/KIKU (Honolulu, HI)WAOW (Wausau, WI)WQOW (Eau Claire, WI)WKOW (Madison, WI)WXOW (La Crosse, WI)KVOA (Tucson, AZ)WREX (Rockford, IL)WCOV (Montgomery, AL)

26 Jan 10min

A Detailed Review of Potential Trump-Era ReversalsMeteorology Matters analyzes the key environmental actions taken by the Biden administration, focusing on the potential challenges and ease with which President Trump may attempt to reverse them. Key Themes:Sweeping Scope: Biden's environmental agenda is characterized by its breadth and depth, impacting various sectors and aiming for long-term sustainability. This makes complete dismantling difficult.Legal and Scientific Foundation: Many of Biden's policies are rooted in robust scientific evidence and legal frameworks, making them resistant to arbitrary rollbacks.Economic and Political Considerations: While Trump champions deregulation for economic growth, some of Biden's policies enjoy industry support (like methane regulation) or face international pressure (like EV production).Key Areas of Focus and Potential for Reversal:1. Climate Change and Air PollutionGreenhouse Gas Standards for Vehicles: Reversing these standards could be challenging due to industry investments in EV production to comply with global regulations. Difficulty: MediumGreenhouse Gas Standards for Power Plants: Trump's promise to "terminate" the power plant rule will likely face legal challenges similar to those faced during his first term. Difficulty: MediumLimits on Mercury and Air Toxics from Coal Plants: Reversing strengthened limits will likely be met with lawsuits from civil rights and environmental groups. Difficulty: MediumPhaseout of Climate Super-Pollutants (HFCs): Reversing the HFC phase-down, authorized by a bipartisan bill, would require new legislation from Congress. Difficulty: Difficult2. Drilling and ExtractionLimits on Methane from Drilling Operations: Trump may face pressure from the oil industry, which supports methane regulation, to retain this rule. Difficulty: MediumFee on Methane from Oil and Gas Facilities: Repealing these fees, authorized by the Inflation Reduction Act, would likely require new legislation. Difficulty: DifficultProtections for D1 lands in Alaska: Trump's previous attempts to revoke protections for D1 lands faced hurdles, and reversing this policy could encounter similar challenges. Difficulty: Medium3. Chemical SafetyListing of PFAS under the Superfund law: This designation has already drawn legal challenges from industry groups and could face further legal hurdles if reversed. Difficulty: MediumRemoval of All Lead Pipes: The Safe Drinking Water Act's provisions make weakening existing health protections difficult, potentially leading to legal challenges. Difficulty: MediumComplete Ban on Asbestos: Trump's previous failures to regulate asbestos were deemed "arbitrary and capricious" by a federal court, making a reversal difficult. Difficulty: Medium4. ConservationExpansion of National Monuments: Trump's previous downsizing of national monuments sparked legal battles. Repealing expansions faces similar resistance and potential Supreme Court involvement. Difficulty: EasyProtection of Boundary Waters: Reversing the mining ban would face opposition from conservationists and potentially impact local water quality, leading to legal challenges. Difficulty: Medium (Rating by Washington Post)

20 Jan 17min

Home Insurance Crisis in the United StatesDate: January 19, 2025Subject: Overview of the Home Insurance Crisis in the US, with a Focus on California and FloridaSummary: Meteorology Matters analyzes the escalating home insurance crisis in the US, particularly in California and Florida. The analysis highlights key themes including:Rising Insurance Costs: Home insurance premiums are increasing at rates surpassing inflation, driven by factors like reinsurance costs, litigation expenses, and the escalating frequency and severity of climate change-related disasters.Insurance Nonrenewals and Cancellations: Insurers are increasingly dropping policies in high-risk areas, forcing homeowners to seek expensive alternatives or forgo coverage altogether.Government Intervention: States like California and Florida are grappling with legislative and regulatory solutions to address the crisis, while the federal government's attempts to gather data and intervene have faced political pushback.Consumer Impact: The crisis is leaving homeowners financially vulnerable, unable to afford coverage, and struggling to rebuild after disasters.Key Themes and Facts:1. Rising Insurance Costs Outpacing Inflation:Inflation and Reinsurance Costs: Insurance industry leaders cite inflation and skyrocketing reinsurance costs as primary drivers of premium increases. Brian Murphy of Brightway Insurance states, “These catastrophic losses, coupled with the insolvency of 15 insurance companies in Florida over the past 15 years, have driven up reinsurance costs, which are then passed down to policyholders." (Source: Insurance cost increases in Florida have outpaced inflation. We asked experts why.)Litigation Expenses: Although recent reforms aimed at curbing lawsuits against insurers have shown some impact, litigation remains a significant cost driver. (Source: Insurance cost increases in Florida have outpaced inflation. We asked experts why.)2. Nonrenewals and Cancellations Leaving Homeowners Vulnerable:Increased Nonrenewals: Nonrenewal notices have surged by almost 30% nationwide from 2018 to 2022, reaching over 620,000 annually. (Source: More homeowners lose insurance in areas hard-hit by climate disasters - The Wash.pdf)Climate Change Impact: Insurers are increasingly withdrawing from high-risk areas exposed to hurricanes, wildfires, and severe storms, forcing homeowners to turn to expensive "insurers of last resort" or forgo coverage. (Source: They lost their insurance. Then their homes burned | CNN Business.pdf)California Wildfires: State Farm, California's largest insurer, nonrenewed thousands of policies in high-risk areas, including many that were subsequently destroyed in the recent LA wildfires. This sparked public outrage and calls for increased government oversight. (Source: State Farm makes major policy change amid LA fires outrage.pdf)

19 Jan 23min