North Africa Outlook 2023

The theme across the African continent for national economies in 2023 is uncertainty. North Africa’s regional growth is forecast to slow down in terms of real GDP growth, from an average of 4.2% in 2022 to 3.8% in 2023. The course of the Russia-Ukraine conflict remains highly unpredictable, resulting in unstable inflation rates consequently pushing up food and fuel prices for large sections of societies across North Africa. Economic recovery will be uneven as oil and gas producers in the region such as Algeria and Egypt have the potential to benefit from elevated energy prices and an international mood to wean Europe off Russian hydrocarbon exports, placing a sharper focus on Africa. Despite being the 3rd largest natural gas supplier to Europe, Algeria lacks the infrastructure to meet its own domestic and Europe’s rising demand. Yet this is also an area that could benefit from Algeria’s new investment laws passed in July 2022 that aim to stimulate the development of the country’s natural resources, technology transfer, job creation, and export capacity.

On the political front, much of the region remains marred by political unrest which could further harm national economies. In combination with higher food prices, President Kais Saied’s power grab in Tunisia and subsequent policies have pushed the economy into dire straits, threatening increased poverty rates which could lead to violent social unrest. However, a preliminary agreement secured with the IMF in 2022 concerning a $1.9 billion loan could aid in alleviating the Tunisian economy which has been plagued by food and fuel shortages.

These challenges present the opportunity to build new social contracts and transform existing economic models to prioritise inclusive growth. With COVID-19 restrictions easing, the tourism industry particularly in Egypt and Morocco has seen an uptick in demand. As the host of COP27 in Sharm El Sheikh, there is greater potential for Egypt’s tourism sector to develop along sustainable lines to become a model for the global tourism industry. This shift toward normalising eco-tourism will be crucial as droughts and rising sea levels, both impacts of climate change, pose a great threat to the social stability and economic growth trajectories for all North African countries. Nevertheless, there is a desperate need to increase the availability and distribution of climate finance to all countries across the region, particularly Mauritania. North Africa has an abundance of renewable energy resources, notably wind and solar. Morocco has one of the world’s largest concentrated solar power plants, providing energy for just under 2 million Moroccans saving 800,000 tonnes of CO2 annually. Both Morocco and Egypt are betting big on green hydrogen as producers and exporters to capitalise on the international interest in hydrogen energy.