Noah Smith on Taiwan's Future, Nuclear Proliferation, and Trump 2.0 [ChinaTalk]

While traveling to Taiwan, Noah Smith sat down with ChinaTalk's managing editor and Taipei correspondent Lily Ottinger to explore wide range of geopolitical and economic issues, including the potential impacts of a second Trump administration on Asia, where Elon Musk stands on Taiwan, nuclear proliferation, China's economic strategies, Taiwan's defense and diplomatic policies, and demographic shifts.

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RECOMMENDED PODCAST: ChinaTalk

Check out ChinaTalk. Conversations exploring China, technology, and US-China relations. Guests include a wide range of analysts, policymakers, and academics. Hosted by Jordan Schneider.

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Highlights from the Episode:

• Trump's coalition now includes a powerful tech sector pushing for deregulation, while his personal corruption and susceptibility to influence could make him vulnerable to China, particularly through platforms like TikTok, with export controls serving as a key indicator of his policy stance toward Beijing.
• Nuclear weapons have historically proven effective at preventing invasion of states that possess them.
• China is experiencing debt deflation similar to Japan's 1990s situation, where falling prices increase the real burden of debt.
• Xi Jinping's conservative economic views, particularly resistance to stimulus and healthcare spending, may prolong recovery.
• Taiwan's laid-back culture and success stand in stark contrast to mainland China's approach.
• Under Xi, China has reversed some of the liberalization that occurred under previous leaders.

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LINKS:

Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/

ChinaTalk: https://www.chinatalk.media/

https://www.linkedin.com/in/lily-ottinger/

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