Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview

Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview

(0:00) Ray Dalio joins Friedberg!

(0:50) The current US fiscal situation

(6:23) Breaking down "The Big Debt Cycle," a potential US debt spiral, and the impact on real wealth

(24:54) USD vs other currencies and assets, best hedges against the dollar

(33:20) Portfolio construction, how China increases risk for US AI companies, why this market reminds Ray of 1998-1999

(41:45) How the US can avoid a debt crisis

(53:29) DOGE, Trump, and AI's greatest risk

(1:05:31) Chances of conflict between the US and China

Follow the Besties:

https://x.com/chamath

https://x.com/Jason

https://x.com/DavidSacks

https://x.com/friedberg

Follow Ray Dalio:

https://x.com/RayDalio

Read Part 1 of "How Countries Go Broke":

https://x.com/RayDalio/status/1878840018770210979

Pre-order "How Countries Go Broke":

https://www.amazon.com/Principles-Investment-Economic-Ray-Dalio/dp/1501124064

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Intro Music Credit:

https://rb.gy/tppkzl

https://x.com/yung_spielburg

Intro Video Credit:

https://x.com/TheZachEffect

Referenced in the show:

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-debt-to-gdp

https://www.crfb.org/press-releases/treasury-confirms-calendar-year-2024-deficit-tops-20-trillion

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61172

https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/2bstne1l09npgdk1s5yww/corner-office/ray-dalio-makes-his-exit-from-bridgewater

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL

https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/outlook/economic-outlook/fed-meeting-september-2024

https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertfarrington/2024/11/08/fed-cut-interest-rates-so-why-do-mortgage-rates-keep-climbing

https://www.chathamfinancial.com/insights/fomc-recap-december-2024

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/14/a-global-bond-sell-off-is-deepening-as-hopes-for-multiple-fed-rate-cuts-fizzle.html

Avsnitt(283)

E10: Twitter & Facebook botch censorship (again), the publisher vs. distributor debate & more

E10: Twitter & Facebook botch censorship (again), the publisher vs. distributor debate & more

Follow the crew: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Sacks' blog post on Section 230: https://medium.com/craft-ventures/rip-section-230-1112dfad3fac Referenced in the show: NY Post Hunter Biden Story https://nypost.com/2020/10/14/email-reveals-how-hunter-biden-introduced-ukrainian-biz-man-to-dad/ Twitter's explanation for censoring it https://twitter.com/TwitterSafety/status/1316525303930458115 Facebook's explanation for censoring it https://twitter.com/andymstone/status/1316395902479872000 Updated CDC survival rates https://twitter.com/adam_creighton/status/1308652790823051264?s=21 Show Notes: 0:00 The besties catch up on the news 1:29 NY Post Hunter Biden story & censorship by Twitter/Facebook 7:27 What is section 230 & how does it play into the publisher vs. distributor debate 13:23 Distinguishing between publishers & distributors 28:30 Why Twitter & Facebook's actions with the NY Post were a huge blunder & crossed a line, should the laws be rewritten? 37:21 Trump beats COVID, what that means for better treatment options, dueling town halls 46:14 Sacks explains his stance on Prop 13 & Zuckerberg's pro-Prop 15 lobbying 54:34 Thoughts on Amy Coney Barrett & Biden's large lead in the polls

16 Okt 20201h 4min

E9: Trump has COVID, First debate reactions, Coinbase letter response & more

E9: Trump has COVID, First debate reactions, Coinbase letter response & more

Follow the crew: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Referenced in the show: Brian Armstrong's Blog - Coinbase is a mission focused company https://blog.coinbase.com/coinbase-is-a-mission-focused-company-af882df8804 President Trump's medical treatment https://twitter.com/Jason/status/1312126100286271488 Show Notes: 0:00 The besties reflect on Trump testing positive for COVID-19: treatment, impact on society & the election 9:06 What treatment is Trump receiving & is it scalable to everyone? Is this the future of disease mitigation? 16:55 What happens to the election if Trump is incapacitated & cannot run? 20:36 Debate reaction - who won, who misfired? 29:05 Live reaction to Trump being flown to Walter Reed hospital 30:43 Has the economy began to separate from political influence? 36:25 Reflection on the execution & reaction to Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong's letter 41:19 How Chamath would have reframed the letter, how Slack & company forums have platformed non-work discourse inside companies 49:30 Reflection on Jack Dorsey & Dick Costolo's reaction, what this means for Coinbase going forward 59:04 Predictions for 2021

3 Okt 20201h 7min

E8: TikTok + Oracle, how privacy loss will impact society, economy & COVID outlooks for 2021 & beyond, California wildfires & more

E8: TikTok + Oracle, how privacy loss will impact society, economy & COVID outlooks for 2021 & beyond, California wildfires & more

Follow the crew: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://bio.fm/theallinpod Articles referenced in the show: America Needs to Lock Down Again: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-09-16/coronavirus-america-needs-lock-down-again A Taxonomy of Fear: https://www.persuasion.community/p/a-taxonomy-of-fear NuScale Power Article: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200828005299/en/NuScale-Power-Makes-History-as-the-First-Ever-Small-Modular-Reactor-to-Receive-U.S.-Nuclear-Regulatory-Commission-Design-Approval Running Tide Article: https://www.fastcompany.com/90548820/forget-planting-trees-this-company-is-making-carbon-offsets-by-putting-seaweed-on-the-ocean-floor Show Notes: 0:00 The besties talk about the bestie reunion mishap, the Code 13 story & more 5:42 TikTok + Oracle, is the escalation between China & US a slippery slope, security threats created by modern software 15:01 What’s the bigger picture of the TikTok debate, what policy could be enacted 20:13 The emerging market for guaranteed privacy & how this impacts society 27:43 State of the US economy, is there a permanent unemployed class & could there be a second wave of lockdowns? 37:44 COVID outlooks for 2021 & beyond, innovations in rapid testing 46:22 Trump’s COVID response, Trump vs. Biden, shrinking impact of the executive branch 55:11 California wildfires, politicization of global warming, financial incentives to solving climate change 1:08:28 Practical ways to impact global warming & the carbon crisis 1:11:57 Sacks on A Taxonomy of Fear by Emily Yoffe, Safety-ism & contamination by association 1:18:58 Could Trump being re-elected eliminate the two-party system?

19 Sep 20201h 24min

E7: California's collapse, how SPACs are opening the markets for growth stocks & more

E7: California's collapse, how SPACs are opening the markets for growth stocks & more

Follow the crew: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://bio.fm/theallinpod Bestie recommendations: Chamath: https://www.amazon.com/Americana-400-Year-History-American-Capitalism/dp/0399563792 Sacks: https://taibbi.substack.com/ https://andrewsullivan.substack.com/ Friedberg: https://www.amazon.com/Godfather-Mario-Puzo/dp/0451205766 https://www.amazon.com/Titan-Life-John-Rockefeller-Sr/dp/1400077303/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&keywords=john+d+rockefeller+titan&qid=1599625893&s=books&sr=1-1 Jason: https://www.amazon.com/Fish-That-Ate-Whale-Americas/dp/1250033314/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&keywords=the+fish+that+ate+the+whale&qid=1599625909&s=books&sr=1-1 https://www.amazon.com/I-Love-Capitalism-American-Story/dp/073521624X/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&keywords=i+love+capitalism&qid=1599626013&sr=8-1   0:00 The gang recap their summers 6:43 Is California collapsing? Why or why not? Has the one-party system failed? 14:05 Understanding the bureaucratic side of California's problem 20:37 AB-5 & the working rights of freelancers 27:11 How would AB-5 passing impact Uber & Lyft's long-term profitability & consumer experience, could franchising fix this? 34:45 California lagging in police reform, what tactical steps could be taken to stop deadly policing 46:13 Chamath on the most important economic event of the last decade & why he is now bullish on the market 50:46 Why technology companies should be going public sooner, how SPACs are allowing retail investors access to growth stocks 1:01:23 Election talk - who is in the lead ahead of the first debate? 1:12:21 Bestie recommendations

9 Sep 20201h 16min

E6: Big Tech antitrust aftermath, potential effects of an M&A clampdown on Silicon Valley & more

E6: Big Tech antitrust aftermath, potential effects of an M&A clampdown on Silicon Valley & more

Follow the crew: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://bio.fm/theallinpod Jason's recent Big Tech antitrust hearings breakdown: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VWeMnJ0-a_U

31 Juli 20201h 34min

E5: WHO's incompetence, kicking off Cold War II, China's grand plan, 100X'ing America's efficiency

E5: WHO's incompetence, kicking off Cold War II, China's grand plan, 100X'ing America's efficiency

Follow the crew: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://bio.fm/theallinpod

11 Juli 20201h 32min

E4: Politicizing the pandemic, Police reform, Biden's ideal VP, Twitter vs. Facebook on free speech & more with David Sacks & David Friedberg

E4: Politicizing the pandemic, Police reform, Biden's ideal VP, Twitter vs. Facebook on free speech & more with David Sacks & David Friedberg

Follow @chamath: https://twitter.com/chamath Follow @jason: https://twitter.com/Jason https://linktr.ee/calacanis 0:01 Jason checks in on Chamath, Sacks & Friedberg, opening up their social circles, outdoor activities & more 9:31 Issues with politicizing matters of public health, deaths decreasing while new cases spike, masks, lockdowns & more 20:56 Viral videos, doxxing bad behavior & cancel culture 25:39 Reforming law enforcement, separating police from the military, changing police incentives 36:42 Are public unions too powerful? How a lack of leadership has led us here 41:49 Facebook vs. Twitter on free speech, Zuckerberg's relationship with Peter Thiel, valuing comfort over freedom of expression 59:24 John Bolton's book controversy 1:03:14 Movements in the COVID vaccine space 1:07:38 Trump vs. Biden: Who has the upper hand? 1:14:24 Who should Biden pick as VP?

20 Juni 20201h 18min

E3: Modern Cold War between US & China, economic recovery, potential mass migration out of San Francisco, pandemic politicization & more with David Sacks & David Friedberg

E3: Modern Cold War between US & China, economic recovery, potential mass migration out of San Francisco, pandemic politicization & more with David Sacks & David Friedberg

Follow @chamath: https://twitter.com/chamath Follow @jason: https://twitter.com/Jason https://linktr.ee/calacanis 0:01 Jason & Chamath intro David Sacks & David Friedberg 1:15 Everybody gives their quarantine update: Sacks is in Mexico while running Craft remote, Chamath got a new poker table & is excited for shelter-in-place to end, Friedberg is getting back into a rhythm 8:04 Chamath & Sacks reflect on the coming return to normalcy & politicization of the virus 12:41 Sacks on 3 major data-driven discoveries about the virus 15:54 Friedberg on fatality rate data, overestimating the lockdown's impact on stopping the virus 19:32 Getting back to work 21:05 Chamath on the stock market not reflecting the economy, Sacks on what an economic recovery might look like 28:00 Friedberg on potential of another NYC-level outbreak, Chamath on negative impact of left/right culture war 34:05 Sacks on democratic hesitation to end lockdowns giving Trump a strategic advantage, Friedberg on Hydroxychloroquine's benefits/risks 37:57 Sacks on potential resorting of the Bay Area & Silicon Valley due to remote work 41:51 Chamath on benefits of working remote, why San Francisco might lose large numbers of people 45:18 Tesla/Fremont situation a microcosm for politicization of the pandemic, benefits of people starting to distrust inept bureaucrats 49:33 Chamath on the beginning of the modern Cold War, dealing with market conditions considering China's standing in the world, ideological issues 53:46 Sacks on US/China relationship, how US can penalize China 59:25 Friedberg on how US can leapfrog China in manufacturing by using modern, automated solutions

21 Maj 20201h 6min

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