E61: 2022 Predictions! Business, politics, science, tech, crypto, & more

Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg https://twitter.com/altcap Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Referenced in the show: Statista - Death rates from coronavirus (COVID-19) in the United States https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state Tweets: https://twitter.com/bgurley/status/1382737752794353664 https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1382874547179950082 https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1382466963885199362 https://twitter.com/DrewHolden360/status/1382477293797400581 https://twitter.com/chamath/status/1383073577386201094 Show Notes: 0:00 Bestie intro & crowning a new SPAC king 3:01 Coinbase's direct listing, comparing vehicles to go public & lockup periods, Sacks on Coinbase vs. NYT 12:06 David Sacks on running for governor 15:21 Brad & the besties react to the crazy Q1 in the markets, a16z's savvy buying moves with Coinbase, issues with short-term behavioral lock-in 32:37 Top insights from Bezos' letter to shareholders, Amazon employees reject the union in Alabama 50:27 Reacting to Drew Holden's recent thread on media double standards in covering each party 54:28 Federalism's benefits throughout COVID, State-by-state results reveal lockdowns didn't work, vaccine incentives and PR due to J&J decision 1:04:20 Degradation of faith in institutions accelerated by COVID 1:09:26 Republican Senator Josh Hawley calls for big tech antitrust reform, bypassing institutions for progress

17 Apr 20211h 18min

Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Referenced in the show: Axios - Changes to capital gains taxes omitted from Biden's infrastructure plan https://www.axios.com/biden-infrastructure-plan-capital-gains-taxes-318224d2-84f8-4c48-b5db-bbcec5fdd74f.html Cal Matters - A wealth tax could sabotage California’s recovery https://calmatters.org/commentary/my-turn/2021/03/a-wealth-tax-could-sabotage-californias-recovery Healthline - COVID-19 Vaccines May Help Stop Virus Transmission: Here’s What We Know https://www.healthline.com/health-news/covid-19-vaccines-may-help-stop-virus-transmission-heres-what-we-know Show Notes: 0:00 Besties intro, state of the public & private markets 18:54 Chamath receives inspiring note re: last week’s longevity talk 21:17 Archegos debacle, issues with trading on margin 32:26 Biden’s infrastructure bill, US government becoming overleveraged 45:45 Potential tax hikes, inefficient deployment of capital, California wealth tax impact 52:59 Trade off between freedom & equality, how free markets spur innovation, generational changes 1:05:14 Is a wealth tax constitutional? Vaccine update

1 Apr 20211h 20min

Sacks' Inflation Deck: https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1vBeh__Kyf57jfhWPOQXaU64VdLaowQBAHwXjBzuVSPs/edit?usp=sharing Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Referenced in the show: Tweets https://twitter.com/davehclark/status/1375045409542823939 https://twitter.com/BernieSanders/status/1374901873484967938 https://twitter.com/Mat_Yarger/status/1374212541367345155 https://twitter.com/Mat_Yarger/status/1375163739759116297 https://twitter.com/Jason/status/1375488265915002883 https://twitter.com/chamath/status/1375244032230625281 https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1375283834711777282 https://twitter.com/chamath/status/1375484528559448064 Bitclout https://rb.gy/sjtjzy Show Notes: 0:00 Besties get ready to rumble & discuss recent Twitter polls 7:25 Debating inflation, Sacks presents his deck 37:20 Amazon social team goes on the offensive, Facebook's regulatory capture play around content moderation 48:42 Suez Canal, rethinking our centralized infrastructure & supply chain risk management, infrastructure bill concerns 1:00:18 Microsoft in talks to buy Discord for $10B, Sacks on SaaS exits from Yammer experience 1:02:49 Poker talk, going to the movies, Disneyland, EU incompetence

27 Mars 20211h 14min

View the State of VC deck here: https://rb.gy/wfan6j Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/MikeSylvan Referenced in the show: Lifespan by David Sinclair: https://rb.gy/etzzmk Prenuvo: https://www.prenuvo.com Gumroad Equity Crowdfunding: https://republic.co/gumroad Backstage Equity Crowdfunding: https://republic.co/backstage Show Notes: 0:00 Bestie intro & poker talk 5:49 Fan question: Longevity & Biohacking, Chamath's health regimen 12:54 Fan question: Decentralization, separation of currency & state, will governments fight back against crypto? 22:48 Fan question: Quantum computing's potential impact, why heavy R&D technologies should are better suited for government funding rather than the private sector 33:33 Chamath's thesis behind deep tech investing 37:25 State of VC & how it's changing in terms of demographics, new access to capital, deal size & more 48:49 Trend of founders caring more about individual investors rather than firms, who is well-positioned & who is left out? 55:00 Why growth-stage firms could become less relevant: undifferentiated capital, routing around dilution, brand matters more in the early-stage; how Pipe & Clearbanc are revolutionizing non-dilutive funding 1:04:00 Summarizing the changing landscape of venture capital, how startups can best position themselves in a full lifecycle, innovations in equity crowdfunding, opportunity for entrepreneurs

20 Mars 20211h 17min

Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/MikeSylvan Articles referenced in the show: The New England Journal of Medicine - BNT162b2 mRNA Covid 19 Vaccine in a Nationwide Mass Vaccination Setting https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2101765 San Francisco COVID-19 Vaccinations https://data.sfgov.org/stories/s/COVID-19-Vaccinations/a49y-jeyc/ The Art Newspaper - WTAF? Beeple NFT work sells for astonishing $69.3m at Christie’s after flurry of last-minute bids nearly crashes website https://www.theartnewspaper.com/news/beeple-sells-for-christie-s-nft-art-auction-cryptocurrency CoinDesk - Burnt Banksy NFT Sells for $380K in ETH https://www.coindesk.com/burnt-banksy-nft-sells-for-380k-in-eth CNBC - Beeple NFT becomes most expensive ever sold at auction after fetching over $60 million https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/11/most-expensive-nft-ever-sold-auctions-for-over-60-million.html Glenn Greenwald: https://greenwald.substack.com/p/criticizing-public-figures-including https://greenwald.substack.com/p/journalists-start-demanding-substack Tweets referenced in the show: https://twitter.com/davidsacks/status/1370197389210914817 https://twitter.com/davidsacks/status/1370132006080708609 https://twitter.com/davidsacks/status/1370253867154247684 https://twitter.com/davidsacks/status/1370441843666690050 https://twitter.com/chamath/status/1369328384812093441 https://twitter.com/JTLonsdale/status/1369893590369964032 https://twitter.com/domm/status/1368605017238740994 https://twitter.com/CovidVaccineCA Show Notes: 0:00 Biden's vaccine mandate, California's mishandling of the vaccine rollout, cancel culture impacting vaccine distribution 11:00 Vaccine efficacy, "inequity" of distribution 19:24 Success vs. privilege, Meghan Markle vs. The Royal Family 33:38 NFTs, speculative markets, blockchain as a ledger 48:00 Impact of inflation on wealth inequality 1:01:20 SPAC/Direct Listing talk 1:07:46 Yung Spielburg's newest track: RED PILLS

13 Mars 20211h 9min

Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/MikeSylvan Referenced in the show: NY Magazine - Zero COVID Risk Is the Wrong Standard https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/school-opening-science-coronavirus-teacher-unions-zeroism.html Released COVID-19 Response Contracts https://covid19.ca.gov/contracts Chesa's "response" to Sacks https://twitter.com/chesaboudin/status/1366508970102247424 GoFundMe for SF DA reporter https://www.gofundme.com/f/report-on-chesa-boudin-san-francisco-crime The Verge - Entire school board resigns in shame after forgetting their WebEx call was public https://www.theverge.com/tldr/2021/2/21/22294457/oakley-school-board-resigns-zoom Show Notes: 0:00 Markets tank, reasons for optimism in the short-term 15:29 Breaking down the stimulus 24:12 California's COVID emergency stimulus mishaps, political manipulation via "Zeroism" 38:27 Biological Patriot Act, freedom of choice post-vaccination 49:23 Newsom recall update, SF DA Chesa Boudin's high school friend responds to Sacks, SF bureaucratic issues 1:00:33 Grading Biden's first 60 days in office, Oakley School Board mishap, teacher's union issues, Jason's red pill bender

6 Mars 20211h 10min

Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/MikeSylvan Referenced in the show: WSJ - Lake Tahoe Property Sells for $1.6 Million in Bitcoins https://www.wsj.com/articles/lake-tahoe-property-sells-for-1-6-million-in-bitcoins-1407534997 The Changing World Order by Ray Dalio Chapter 2: The Big Cycle of Money, Credit, Debt, and Economic Activity https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/money-credit-debt-ray-dalio/ Show Notes: 0:00 Reflecting on the controversial Robinhood interview, iterating on the show format, getting back to basics 10:52 Chesa Boudin cancelled on us, radical DAs & local prosecution in SF & LA, why criminal justice reform resonates 34:44 Breaking down the Facebook/Google situation in Australia, understanding fair use, potential saving grace for traditional media? 47:26 Vaccine update, conditioned fear sustaining post-vaccine 58:58 Fan Q&A: what the besties are investing in over the next decade, anti-portfolio, biggest current portfolio risks, what would you teach every 12-year old

20 Feb 20211h 24min

Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg https://twitter.com/vladtenev Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/MikeSylvan Show Notes: 0:00 Bestie intro, congrats to Friedberg on a big beak wet 1:44 Jason intros Vlad Tenev 2:48 Vlad fields questions on Robinhood's choice to stop the buying of $GME, his CNBC appearance, self-clearing, liquidity & more 11:02 Allowing access to margin, Robinhood's prior SEC fines, Robinhood accounts that go bankrupt, debunking conspiracy theories, WallStreetBets & more 21:57 Should there be more transparency in the financial markets? Will Robinhood's IPO shares be sold to their retail users? What will they change internally going forward, and how would they have handled the meme stocks situation differently? 31:04 Vlad tells the real story of Jason investing & signs off 33:51 Vlad's returns to answer more questions on users that lost everything, future of payment for order flow & more 41:36 Debriefing Vlad's performance

13 Feb 202149min