Trump Policies Spur NOAA Email Chaos & Expected Cuts to Weather/Science

13% of Floridian Deaths can be attributed to hurricanes and tropical storms? Recent research from both South Korea and the United States reveals a significant and largely underestimated public health burden associated with tropical cyclones (hurricanes/typhoons). Beyond the immediate, direct deaths typically reported, these studies demonstrate a substantial "excess mortality" that can persist for weeks, months, and even years after a storm. This hidden death toll disproportionately affects vulnerable populations, including the elderly, those with lower socioeconomic status, and racial/ethnic minorities. The findings highlight the critical need for expanded public health preparedness and policy measures that account for the long-term, indirect impacts of these increasingly intense natural disasters.Significant and Underestimated Excess Mortality:Beyond Direct Deaths: Official government statistics typically focus on immediate, direct deaths (e.g., drowning, trauma). However, studies show that the true mortality burden is far greater due to indirect causes."The true mortality burden related to cyclone exposure may exceed officially reported death tolls, which usually focus on direct injury-related deaths." (Han et al., Korea)"Official government statistics record only the number of individuals killed during these storms... Usually, these direct deaths, which average 24 per storm in official estimates, occur through drowning or some other type of trauma. But the new analysis... reveals a larger, hidden death toll in hurricanes’ aftermath." (Young & Hsiang, US - Stanford)Quantitative Estimates:South Korea: An average of 150 excess all-cause deaths were estimated for each tropical cyclone during the 2 weeks post-exposure between 2002 and 2023. Daily average increases were 0.084 in all-cause mortality and 0.075 in non-accidental mortality in cyclone-exposed regions.United States (Short-Term): For 179 tropical cyclones between 1988–2019, there were 3,112 excess deaths after hurricane-force winds and 15,590 excess deaths after gale to violent storm-force winds in counties with >95% probability of excess deaths. Hurricane Katrina in 2005 was the deadliest, with 1,491 excess deaths.United States (Long-Term): A groundbreaking analysis of 501 tropical cyclones from 1930–2015 estimates that an average U.S. tropical cyclone indirectly causes 7,000 to 11,000 excess deaths, persisting for nearly 15 years after the storm. Total estimated deaths since 1930 range from 3.6 million to 5.2 million nationwide, vastly exceeding the official total of ~10,000 direct deaths."A big storm will hit, and there’s all these cascades of effects where cities are rebuilding or households are displaced or social networks are broken. These cascades have serious consequences for public health." (Solomon Hsiang, US - Stanford)"This burden is 300–480 times greater than government (NOAA) estimates of 24 deaths per storm on average (22 without Hurricane Katrina) and 11,937 total TC deaths during 1950–2015." (Young & Hsiang, US - Nature)

8 Aug 41min

Meteorologist in SpaceDeborah Martorell, a 54-year-old Puerto Rican meteorologist and journalist with over 30 years of experience, is set to become the "first meteorologist in the world (between men and women) to visit space." Her lifelong dream of becoming an astronaut, which began in childhood and was often "taken as a joke or saw me as this immature girl who wants to be an astronaut," is now becoming a reality.Key Details of Martorell's Mission:Launch Provider: Blue Origin, on its New Shepard suborbital vehicle.Mission Name: NS-34.Target Launch Date: Sunday, August 3rd, with a window opening at 8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT; 7:30 a.m. local Texas time).Launch Site: Blue Origin's West Texas spaceport, near Van Horn.Crew: Martorell will be part of a six-person crew for the NS-34 mission, which includes crypto billionaire Justin Sun, real estate investor Arvinder (Arvi) Singh Bahal, Turkish businessman and photographer Gökhan Erdem, Englishman Lionel Pitchford, and American entrepreneur James (J.D.) Russell. J.D. Russell is flying for the second time.Mission Duration: Each New Shepard mission lasts "10 to 12 minutes, from liftoff to the parachute-aided touchdown of the vehicle's capsule." Passengers will experience "a few minutes of weightlessness and get to see Earth against the blackness of space."Symbolism: The NS-34 mission patch features the "shape of Puerto Rico symbolizes Deborah Martorell’s home" and the "sun in the center symbolizes H.E. Justin Sun, Deborah Martorell’s meteorology background, and new adventures for the whole crew." Martorell views her journey as symbolic for Puerto Rico, stating, "This is a great responsibility and I never lose sight of the fact that I carry with me the dreams of thousands of Puerto Rican boys and girls who, like me, dream of becoming astronauts.”Scientific Contribution: Martorell will carry a scientific experiment and a "gravity indicator that will be designed by the students of the Technology Club of the Dr. Carlos González de Aguada High School." She also intends to involve non-profit organizations she has collaborated with throughout her career.Martorell's Background and Preparation:Education & Career: Martorell began her career as a journalist after studying communication and journalism at the University of Puerto Rico, Río Piedras Campus. She transitioned into meteorology after covering Hurricane Georges and Tropical Storm Jeanne in 1997, leading her to major in climate coverage at the University of Mississippi. She has since served as chief meteorologist and science reporter for TeleOnce and Uno Radio Group for over 30 years.Awards and Recognition: Her reporting on environmental and space topics has earned her "eight Emmy Awards and two Awards of Excellence in Science Reporting from the American Meteorological Society."Aerospace Training: Her aerospace training was conducted by the "PoSSUM Scientist-Astronaut Project of the International Institute of Astronautical Sciences," an international non-profit suborbital research program. She decided to take these classes as her daughters entered adulthood.

2 Aug 31min

Review of recent Trump Administration actions impacting the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), with a focus on deregulation, scientific research, and disaster preparedness.In July 2025, the Trump administration has taken significant steps to dismantle environmental regulations and reduce federal involvement in climate science and disaster response. Key actions include:Elimination of the EPA's Scientific Research Arm: The EPA is proceeding with firing hundreds of scientists and eliminating its Office of Research and Development (ORD), which provides independent research underpinning agency policies and regulations.Proposed Rescission of EPA's "Endangerment Finding": The EPA has proposed to revoke the 2009 "endangerment finding," which legally allows the agency to regulate greenhouse gases under the Clean Air Act. This move aims to eliminate a wide range of climate regulations on vehicles, power plants, and oil and gas emissions.Uncertainty and Cuts to FEMA: The administration is sending "shifting signals" regarding the future of FEMA, with calls to eliminate or remake the agency. FEMA has already suspended the $882 million Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities (BRIC) program, leading to lawsuits from states and concerns about their ability to manage increasing disaster costs.Proposed Closure of Key NOAA Climate Observatories: The proposed 2026 budget for NOAA would end climate research at the agency, specifically targeting the closure of the Mauna Loa Observatory and three other critical monitoring stations. These observatories are crucial for tracking greenhouse gas concentrations and providing long-term climate data.These actions are driven by a stated desire to reduce regulatory burdens on industries so they can profit while the people suffer, increase economic growth while the environment suffers, and a belief that federal agencies like the EPA and FEMA are inefficient, which is not true. Expect devastating impacts on public health, the environment, and the nation's ability to understand and respond to climate change and natural disasters.

31 Juli 49min

Pre-1890:Prior to 1890: Recordkeeping for temperatures in Tampa, Florida, begins.1890:1890: Temperature records for Tampa, Florida, officially start.1892:September 1892: Temperature records for Plant City, Florida, officially start.1895:Since 1895: Florida's average June temperature has been 79.9 degrees.Early 1900s:Since 1902: Records for temperatures at Page Field in Fort Myers begin.Since 1911: Records for temperatures in Sarasota begin.July 1914: Temperature records for St. Petersburg, Florida, officially start.1931:June 29, 1931: Monticello, Florida, records the hottest temperature ever in Florida at 109 degrees.2016:August 2016: EPA publishes "What Climate Change Means for Florida," highlighting that the Florida peninsula has warmed more than one degree (F) in the last century.2020:June 26, 2020: Tampa, Florida, last set its previous record high temperature of 99 degrees Fahrenheit.2023:July 2023: The Gulf of Mexico experiences record-breaking warm water temperatures, with a sensor in Manatee Bay recording 101.1 degrees on July 24, potentially breaking the global record for sea surface temperature.June 2024: Florida's average temperature was 82.6 degrees, ranking as the 3rd hottest June on record.2025:June 2025: Florida experiences its 12th hottest June on record, with an average temperature of 81.8 degrees. Tampa's average June temperature over the past 10 years (including June 2025) has been 83.7 degrees, compared to an average of 81.3 degrees since 1890.July 27, 2025, 3:30 p.m. EDT: Tampa, Florida, soars to 100 degrees, breaking the city’s all-time record high temperature since recordkeeping began in 1890. This also breaks the old record of 99 degrees F set on June 26, 2020. This is the first time in recorded history Tampa has hit 100 degrees. The observation was taken at the airport, where the National Weather Service Tampa office is located (Ruskin, Florida).July 27, 2025, 6:34 p.m. EDT (Updated 9:22 p.m. EDT): Forbes publishes "Tampa Hits 100 Degrees For The First Time In Recorded History."Friday (August 1, 2025): Heat relief for the Southeast is expected to arrive as a cold front slowly advances into the region, bringing cooler temperatures and an increased chance of rai

28 Juli 29min

Recent studies from the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science and ongoing research by the University of Delaware and Rutgers University are shedding new light on how large sharks respond to hurricanes and their potential utility in predicting these powerful storms. While some shark species flee from approaching hurricanes, others, like tiger sharks, exhibit unexpected behavior, even increasing in number after a storm passes, likely due to increased scavenging opportunities. This newfound understanding of shark behavior, coupled with the development of "mobile marine monitors" using tagged sharks, offers a promising, albeit complementary, method for gathering crucial oceanographic data to improve hurricane forecasting, especially as climate change is expected to increase storm intensity.II. Shark Behavior During HurricanesSharks possess unique biological capabilities that allow them to detect and react to approaching storms, though their responses vary significantly by species.A. Shark Sensory Abilities for Storm DetectionBarometric Pressure Changes: Sharks can "feel changes in atmospheric pressure through a sensitive inner ear and organ unique to many fish called lateral lines" ("Are sharks scared of hurricanes?", p. 6). The lateral line system is a "tube of sensory cells used to detect pressure changes in the surrounding waters" ("Sharks Can Sense Storms", p. 4). This allows them to anticipate a storm well before its arrival.Water Condition Changes: Hurricanes cause "massive waves (as high as 60 feet!) and powerful surges of underwater currents (as deep as 300 feet!), not to mention changes in oxygen levels and salinity (or saltiness) as the ocean’s deep and surface waters mix—all of which can be deadly for marine life" ("Sharks Can Sense Storms", p. 3). Sharks must respond quickly to these changing conditions to survive.B. Species-Specific ResponsesFleeing Behavior: Some shark species exhibit a clear avoidance response to hurricanes.Nurse, Bull, and Hammerhead Sharks: These species "fled the area before the storm arrived" when Hurricane Irma approached Biscayne Bay, Florida, in 2017 ("Are sharks scared of hurricanes?", p. 6). This "fleeing behavior...wasn't surprising" to researchers ("Are sharks scared of hurricanes?", p. 7). Juvenile blacktip sharks have also been observed moving to deeper waters before tropical storms and hurricanes ("Sharks Can Sense Storms", p. 5)."Swarming" or Remaining Behavior: Conversely, some larger, more robust species remain in storm-affected areas, and their numbers may even increase afterward.Tiger Sharks: During Hurricane Matthew (a Category 5 storm in 2016), "the Tiger sharks didn't flinch." The study showed that "during the storm, the number of sharks remained steady." Even more surprisingly, "In the days after landfall, the number of Tiger sharks doubled" ("Are sharks scared of hurricanes?", p. 5).Scavenging Opportunities: Experts hypothesize that this doubling was due to "the increase of scavenging opportunities from the storm killing marine life" ("Are sharks scared of hurricanes?", p. 5). This is the "opposite of what happened in previous studies involving small sharks" ("Are sharks scared of hurricanes?", p. 5).Unanswered Questions: Researchers are still exploring whether "some shark species are attracted to areas recently hit by a hurricane?" and if "they can track the storm with their lateral lines and inner ear?" ("Are sharks scared of hurricanes?", p. 7).

25 Juli 22min

2024:NOAA Atlas 15 Pilot Release (Montana): On September 26, 2024, NOAA releases the NOAA Atlas 15 Pilot data for the state of Montana. This pilot aims to collect early feedback and demonstrate the nature of Atlas 15 data. It covers a subset of storm durations (1 hour to 10 days) and exceedance probabilities (50% to 1%) in two volumes and is intended for comparison and feedback, not formal peer review.Public Review Period for NOAA Atlas 15 Pilot (Montana) Closes: The public review period for the NOAA Atlas 15 Pilot over Montana is closed, with feedback informing the expansion of the Pilot.Ed Clark's Retirement: Ed Clark, former director of the National Water Center, retires at the end of April.Spring 2025:Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick Orders Review: Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick orders a review of NOAA Atlas 15 Volume 2, which focuses on climate projections, indefinitely suspending work on this crucial component.July 16, 2025:Washington Post Article Published: The Washington Post publishes an exclusive article detailing the suspension of work on NOAA Atlas 15 Volume 2 by the Trump administration.Recent Flood Events: In the first 15 days of July, the National Weather Service reports twice the usual number of flash floods, including a deluge in Central Texas (130+ fatalities) and heavy rains in the Northeast (2 fatalities in New Jersey, submerged NYC subway stations).2025:Preliminary CONUS Estimates for NOAA Atlas 15: Preliminary estimates for NOAA Atlas 15, covering the contiguous U.S. (lower 48 states), are scheduled to be released for public peer review and feedback.NOAA Atlas 15 Volume 1 (historical observations) Data Public Release (on track): Preliminary data for Volume 1, based on historical observations, is still on track to be made public by the end of this year.April 2025 (Publication Date):"Validating the IMERG remote sensing precipitation data for extremes analysis using the new hybrid depth duration frequency model" Study Published: This study, authored by Kenneth Okechukwu Ekpetere, is published in Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment, Volume 38.

20 Juli 25min

A persistent "cold blob" in the subpolar North Atlantic, south of Greenland, has defied global warming trends for over a century, cooling by up to 0.3 degrees Celsius while surrounding waters warm. Recent research confirms this anomaly is primarily driven by a weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a vital system of ocean currents that regulates global climate. The slowdown is attributed to freshwater influx from melting Greenland ice, reducing water density and heat transport. Critically, new research suggests that an "Atlantification" process in the Arctic, specifically the Barents Sea, is creating a "back-up system" for dense water formation, potentially adding resilience to the AMOC and making a full collapse less likely than previously feared.

16 Juli 8min

The devastating flash floods that swept through the Texas Hill Country on July 4, 2025, resulted in over 111 confirmed deaths and more than 170 missing persons, primarily in Kerr County. This disaster has brought to light critical failures in emergency warning systems, long-standing debates over funding for such infrastructure, and a significant political reluctance to accept accountability. While some areas like Comfort successfully utilized siren systems to prevent casualties, Kerr County, despite being in "Flash Flood Alley" and having a history of deadly floods, lacked effective public warning infrastructure due to cost concerns and political inaction. The incident has sparked a contentious debate over budget cuts to weather forecasting agencies and the overall approach to disaster preparedness in Texas.High Death Toll: As of July 8, 2025, at least 111 people were confirmed dead, with over 170 still missing, predominantly in Kerr County. "Of those, 75 were in Kerr County," and as of Monday morning, July 7, the number had risen to "at least 90 people had died in the flooding." (The Texas Tribune)Youth Casualties: A tragic aspect of the disaster is the high number of child victims, with at least 30 children among the dead in Kerr County. "The victims include many from Camp Mystic, a Christian summer camp for girls, where 27 campers and staff members were killed." (Texas Floods: Accountability and Aftermath)Rapid Onset: The floodwaters rose with extreme speed, particularly in Kerrville, where the Guadalupe River rose "from 1 to more than 34 feet in height" between 2 a.m. and 7 a.m. on Friday. (The Texas Tribune) Some residents reported the water rising "10 feet beyond its banks" in an hour. (In deadly Texas floods, one town had what some didn't)Inadequate Warning Systems in Kerr CountyLack of Sirens: Unlike the nearby town of Comfort, which successfully used a "wailing warning siren" system and reported no deaths, Kerr County lacked a siren system despite years of debate. (In deadly Texas floods, one town had what some didn't) Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly stated, "Kerr County does not have a warning system in place along the river." (Timeline: When the warnings began)Previous Debates and Cost Concerns: Discussions about implementing a flood warning system in Kerr County date back to at least 2016, following a deadly flood in Hays County in 2015. Proposals for systems costing around $1 million were rejected as "too expensive." (In deadly Texas floods, one town had what some didn't; Officials Feared Flood Risk) "Taxpayers won’t pay for it," said Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly. (Officials Feared Flood Risk)Reliance on Cell Phone Alerts: Kerr County relied on Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEAs) sent to cell phones. However, these alerts were often ineffective due to "spotty cellphone service," phones being off, or individuals being asleep. "The girls at the summer camp weren’t allowed to bring them [cell phones]." (In deadly Texas floods, one town had what some didn't) Many residents also became "desensitized to too many weather warnings." (Timeline: When the warnings began)Failed Legislation: House Bill 13, which aimed to establish a statewide plan for improving disaster response, including a grant program for emergency communication equipment and new infrastructure like radio towers, "failed in the Texas Senate." (The Texas Tribune) This bill's initial "$500 million cost drew heavy criticism from fellow Republicans." (The Texas Tribune)

9 Juli 49min