Ravi Gupta - AI or Die - [Invest Like the Best, EP.411]

Today, we're running a replay of my 2019 conversation with legendary investor Chuck Akre. Chuck founded Akre Capital Management in 1989, which now manages approximately $14B dollars. We discuss his investing style and his “three-legged stool” for evaluating companies. Please enjoy this great conversation. Listen to Founders Podcast For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page here. ----- This episode is brought to you by Tegus. Tegus is the modern research platform for leading investors, and provider of Canalyst. Tired of calculating fully diluted shares outstanding? Access every publicly-reported data point and industry-specific KPI through their database of over 4,000 drivable global models hand-built by a team of sector-focused analysts, 35+ industry comp sheets, and Excel add-ins that let you use their industry-leading data in your own spreadsheets. Tegus’ models automatically update each quarter, including hard-to-calculate KPIs like stock-based compensation and organic growth rates, empowering investors to bypass the friction of sourcing, building, and updating models. Make efficiency your competitive advantage and take back your time today. As a listener, you can trial Canalyst by Tegus for free by visiting tegus.co/patrick. ----- Invest Like the Best is a property of Colossus, LLC. For more episodes of Invest Like the Best, visit joincolossus.com/episodes.  Past guests include Tobi Lutke, Kevin Systrom, Mike Krieger, John Collison, Kat Cole, Marc Andreessen, Matthew Ball, Bill Gurley, Anu Hariharan, Ben Thompson, and many more. Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here. Follow us on Twitter: @patrick_oshag | @JoinColossus Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Show Notes: [00:00:00] Welcome to Invest Like the Best [00:01:06] First Question – Advantage of being in Middleburg, Virginia [00:02:11] What a day looks like for Chuck [00:03:06] Why imagination is more important than knowledge [00:03:38] Difference between curiosity and imagination [00:04:38] The origins of the Nirvana Three-Legged Stool concept [00:10:14] First leg of the stool, extraordinary business and ROE’s with a focus on Bandag [00:14:36] How his evaluations of value have changed over the last 10-15 years [00:16:10] A look at recent businesses that he’s bought and why they are interesting [00:19:56] Why they keep things simple [00:21:35] Second leg of the stool, the people involved and characteristics of managers he has invested in [00:23:20] Role of capital allocation in the people he focuses on [00:29:34] Third leg of the stool, reinvestment [00:21:09] How does he think about diversifying across an investment area [00:33:32] Great businesses wrapped in a bad balance sheet [00:37:35] What would cause him to sell [00:38:52] What does he look for in people [00:43:27] How curiosity has impacted his interest in land conservation [00:43:51] Advice for investors, especially younger ones [00:46:14] Kindest thing anyone has done for him

6 Feb 202449min

My guest today is Alex Telford. Alex is the founder of Convoke, a software platform to help streamline drug development and commercialization. He also has been writing frequent blog posts on the biotech industry since 2019, keeping a pulse on the direction of innovation. He joined me today to talk about the history of the pharmaceutical industry and what’s becoming possible in medicine in the coming years. Alex helped break down the complexities of investing in new drug development, breakthroughs in gene therapy on the horizon, and the dance between timely progress and restrictive regulation. This industry has a lot to unpack, and he thoughtfully lays out the landscape. Please enjoy my conversation with Alex Telford. Listen to Founders Podcast For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page here. ----- This episode is brought to you by Tegus, the modern research platform for leading investors. Stretch your research budget with flexible expert calls you can trust. At a fraction of the cost of traditional expert networks, Tegus customers pay only what an expert charges – with zero markups and no confusing call credits – netting an average 70% savings. Don’t want to conduct a full hour call? Tegus offers the ability to schedule 30-minutes, an offer you won’t find anywhere else. And they don’t stop there. With white-glove custom sourcing for every project and robust compliance measures, including a dedicated 50+ analyst team that vets every call transcript, Tegus ensures your privacy and protection. As the industry innovator for qualitative insights, Tegus helps you find the right experts you need at a quality and speed that can’t be matched. For a limited time, as a listener, you can trial Tegus for free by visiting tegus.co/patrick. ----- Invest Like the Best is a property of Colossus, LLC. For more episodes of Invest Like the Best, visit joincolossus.com/episodes.  Past guests include Tobi Lutke, Kevin Systrom, Mike Krieger, John Collison, Kat Cole, Marc Andreessen, Matthew Ball, Bill Gurley, Anu Hariharan, Ben Thompson, and many more. Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here. Follow us on Twitter: @patrick_oshag | @JoinColossus Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Show Notes: (00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like the Best (00:04:01) First question - Exploring public perceptions of Big Pharma (00:04:56) Providing an overview of the drug discovery process (00:07:22) Assessing the efficiency of the pharmaceutical industry (00:12:13) Anticipating the future direction of drug development (00:16:46) Categorizing different types of pharmaceutical drugs (00:21:19) Strategies to reduce the time from discovery to implementation (00:25:55) Gaining insights from cross-disciplinary research (00:31:13) The emerging role of AI in pharmaceuticals (00:34:32) Analyzing potential regulatory shifts in the industry (00:39:13) Discussing the importance of Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) (00:43:29) Examining the impact of blockbuster drugs (00:47:47) Deliberating on the complexities of drug pricing (00:54:09) Highlighting exciting developments and concerns in pharma (00:59:55) The kindest thing anyone has ever done for him

30 Jan 202459min

My guest today is Madhavan Ramanujam. Madhavan quite literally wrote the book on how to price products. It’s called “Monetizing Innovations” and his concepts have been used by companies across the world like Porsche, Uber, LinkedIn, and SuperHuman. Our conversation is a masterclass on pricing. We discuss common mistakes when pricing products, why you need to focus on benefits rather than features, and how to pick the right monetization model. Please enjoy my conversation with Madhavan Ramanujam. Listen to Founders podcast. For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page here. ----- This episode is brought to you by Tegus. Tegus is the modern research platform for leading investors, and provider of Canalyst. Tired of calculating fully diluted shares outstanding? Access every publicly-reported data point and industry-specific KPI through their database of over 4,000 drivable global models hand-built by a team of sector-focused analysts, 35+ industry comp sheets, and Excel add-ins that let you use their industry-leading data in your own spreadsheets. Tegus’ models automatically update each quarter, including hard-to-calculate KPIs like stock-based compensation and organic growth rates, empowering investors to bypass the friction of sourcing, building, and updating models. Make efficiency your competitive advantage and take back your time today. As a listener, you can trial Canalyst by Tegus for free by visiting tegus.co/patrick. ----- Invest Like the Best is a property of Colossus, LLC. For more episodes of Invest Like the Best, visit joincolossus.com/episodes.  Past guests include Tobi Lutke, Kevin Systrom, Mike Krieger, John Collison, Kat Cole, Marc Andreessen, Matthew Ball, Bill Gurley, Anu Hariharan, Ben Thompson, and many more. Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here. Follow us on Twitter: @patrick_oshag | @JoinColossus Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Show Notes [00:00:00] Welcome to Invest Like the Best [00:02:48] First question - How he arrived at a radically different way of building products [00:05:07] An example of coming up with a price before the product [00:08:35] Distinctions between a willingness to pay and positive feedback  [00:10:29] How to make sure you’re talking to the right potential customer in the first place [00:13:32] Productizing for different customer segments  [00:16:16] Questions companies should be asking to get accurate feedback [00:21:18] What he’s learned about the motivations of potential buyers [00:22:43] What leaders, killers, and fillers are [00:24:37] Some of the biggest mistakes companies make while following his formula [00:25:35] A rule of thumb for what is a benefit versus a feature [00:27:35] Five distinct pricing models for charging a customer [00:30:46] Whether or not the value piece of all of this revolves around time and money [00:33:27] What he tells entrepreneurs about pricing their products that most surprises them  [00:35:16] Defining the first four categories of failure  [00:40:13] Reasons why so many innovations fail to monetize and pricing being a CEO topic [00:41:51] Good rules that leaders can use to have a general sense for effective pricing  [00:47:38] Behavioral changes and observations as the absolute price move up and down  [00:50:36] Is there a pricing genius we should take note of? [00:53:18] The single question every leader should ask themselves [00:53:46] The kindest thing anyone has ever done for him

23 Jan 202456min

This week, we are running a replay of my conversation with Daryl Morey from last year. Daryl is the President of basketball operations for the Philadelphia 76ers. Together with my friend and past guest of the show, Sam Hinkie, Daryl pioneered the analytics movement in basketball. He’s been so influential his style has its own name, “Moreyball”, a nod to Michael Lewis’s book about baseball, Moneyball. I had a blast talking to him about negotiation tactics, systems thinking, hiring, and a ton more. Please enjoy this great conversation with Daryl Morey. For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page here. Listen to Founders Podcast. ----- This episode is brought to you by Tegus, the modern research platform for leading investors. The gold standard for research, the Tegus platform delivers unmatched access to timely, qualitative insights through the largest and most differentiated expert call transcript database. With over 60,000 transcripts spanning 22,000 public and private companies, investors can accelerate their fundamental research process by discovering highly-differentiated and reliable insights that can’t be found anywhere else in the market. As a listener, drive your next investment thesis forward with Tegus for free at tegus.co/patrick. ----- Invest Like the Best is a property of Colossus, LLC. For more episodes of Invest Like the Best, visit joincolossus.com/episodes.  Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here. Follow us on Twitter: @patrick_oshag | @JoinColossus Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Show Notes (00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like the Best (00:03:15) The basic principles of sports and what makes for a great sport (00:09:54) How resource concentration influences outcomes in various sports (00:13:13) The degree of certainty in predicting sports outcomes based on existing data (00:16:32) Using the concept of KPIs to optimize for certain characteristics to win games (00:18:45) Training teams on specific systems and plays versus leveraging individual talent (00:21:07) Why superstar athletes are key to success in basketball (00:24:02) Dealing with constant expected value calculations to appease stakeholders (00:25:30) Building the organization’s back office to find talented athletes (00:28:32) How he and other GMs make organization-level decisions (00:34:12) Why he’s involved with basketball as opposed to other sports (00:36:17) How he uses his frameworks to figure out systems outside of mainstream sports (00:37:41) Problems with the rules and economic factors of professional soccer (00:41:53) Suggestions to mitigate huge point spreads that make viewers disinterested (00:42:54) Trends he’s observed in the worlds of music, movies, and books (00:45:33) His perspective on developing one’s own career path (00:48:22) How challenges in his youth benefited him in the long run (00:49:28) The person he would call for advice if he was stuck in a foreign prison (00:51:01) His emphasis on first principles and why he supports free speech (00:52:31) Takeaways from a Harvard negotiation class he took (00:57:07) The power of refining the terms and definitions of a deal post-negotiation (00:58:51) The four people in the world that intrigue him most (01:01:40) The kindest thing anyone has ever done for him

16 Jan 20241h 4min

My guest today is Michael Ovitz. Michael is the legendary talent agent and co-founder of CAA, or Creative Artists Agency. Michael started CAA in 1975 and over the next twenty years, he built it into the world’s most formidable talent agency, changing Hollywood forever. The list of stars he’s worked with is endless, from Meryl Streep to Steven Spielberg and David Letterman.  Since leaving CAA, he has become an investor and adviser to many prominent firms, most notably Andreessen Horowitz, and Michael’s work ethic is unmatched. Please enjoy this great discussion with Michael Ovitz. Listen to Founders Podcast For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page here. ----- This episode is brought to you by Tegus, the modern research platform for leading investors. Stretch your research budget with flexible expert calls you can trust. At a fraction of the cost of traditional expert networks, Tegus customers pay only what an expert charges – with zero markups and no confusing call credits – netting an average 70% savings. Don’t want to conduct a full hour call? Tegus offers the ability to schedule 30-minutes, an offer you won’t find anywhere else. And they don’t stop there. With white-glove custom sourcing for every project and robust compliance measures, including a dedicated 50+ analyst team that vets every call transcript, Tegus ensures your privacy and protection. As the industry innovator for qualitative insights, Tegus helps you find the right experts you need at a quality and speed that can’t be matched. For a limited time, as a listener, you can trial Tegus for free by visiting tegus.co/patrick. ----- Invest Like the Best is a property of Colossus, LLC. For more episodes of Invest Like the Best, visit joincolossus.com/episodes.  Past guests include Tobi Lutke, Kevin Systrom, Mike Krieger, John Collison, Kat Cole, Marc Andreessen, Matthew Ball, Bill Gurley, Anu Hariharan, Ben Thompson, and many more. Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here. Follow us on Twitter: @patrick_oshag | @JoinColossus Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Show Notes: (00:00:00) Show Introduction  (00:03:25) First Question, Michael Crichton's Impact (00:04:14) The Art of Storytelling and Creativity (00:07:20) Michael Crighton’s Writer's Block (00:09:53) The Birth of Jurassic Park (00:12:42) The Importance of Pacing in Storytelling (00:17:43) Positional Power and Influence (00:20:04) Knowledge is Power (00:22:10) The Role of Agents in the Business World (00:36:18) The Importance of Momentum in Business (00:42:35) Branding and Image (00:45:44) The Art of Spotting Talent (00:46:20) The Role of Persistence (00:51:25) Investing in People (01:00:30) Building Mystique (01:06:30) The Importance of Relationships (01:10:39) The Role of Art in the Entertainment Industry (01:17:04) Telling the Truth to Clients (01:25:28) Winning the Coca-Cola account (01:42:18) The Kindest Thing Anyone Has Done for Michael

9 Jan 20241h 49min

My guest today is Erik Serrano. Erik is the CEO of Stable Asset Management, which he started 14 years ago in his early 20s and has scaled to over $3 billion in AUM. Unusually, Stable’s strategy focuses on other investing firms. They look to back the Blackstone's of tomorrow and provide those founders with capital and support so their time is spent doing what they do best, which is typically investing. We discuss the commonalities among promising founders in this sector, how Stable serves as a full resource to their companies, and some harsh truths learned from building an investing business. Please enjoy my conversation with Erik Serrano. Listen to Founders Podcast For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page here. ----- This episode is brought to you by Tegus. Tegus is the modern research platform for leading investors, and provider of Canalyst. Tired of calculating fully diluted shares outstanding? Access every publicly-reported data point and industry-specific KPI through their database of over 4,000 drivable global models hand-built by a team of sector-focused analysts, 35+ industry comp sheets, and Excel add-ins that let you use their industry-leading data in your own spreadsheets. Tegus’ models automatically update each quarter, including hard-to-calculate KPIs like stock-based compensation and organic growth rates, empowering investors to bypass the friction of sourcing, building, and updating models. Make efficiency your competitive advantage and take back your time today. As a listener, you can trial Canalyst by Tegus for free by visiting tegus.co/patrick. ----- Invest Like the Best is a property of Colossus, LLC. For more episodes of Invest Like the Best, visit joincolossus.com/episodes.  Past guests include Tobi Lutke, Kevin Systrom, Mike Krieger, John Collison, Kat Cole, Marc Andreessen, Matthew Ball, Bill Gurley, Anu Hariharan, Ben Thompson, and many more. Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here. Follow us on Twitter: @patrick_oshag | @JoinColossus Show Notes (00:03:33) - (First question) Exploring the allure of investing in investment firms (00:08:20) - Discussing the scarcity of investors in investment firms (00:18:20) - Strategies for generating returns for investors (00:22:50) - Analyzing risk/return dynamics in portfolios (00:26:26) - Unveiling surprising insights from Project Legends (00:29:56) - Characterizing the ideal General Partner (GP) (00:37:23) - Identifying red flags in GPs' practices (00:44:10) - Viewing investment strategies as marketable products (00:52:52) - Delving into the emotional aspects of investing (01:01:57) - Tracing the lifecycle of an investment firm (01:13:04) - Offering guidance to aspiring young investors (01:18:24) - Reflecting on the notion that ‘nice people finish last’ (01:23:52) - The kindest thing anyone has ever done for him

2 Jan 20241h 26min

This week we are replaying our episode with Doug Leone. Doug led one of the world’s most successful venture firms, Sequoia, for over 25 years after he was given responsibility for the firm by its founder, Don Valentine, in 1996. Alongside Mike Moritz, the pair managed its expansion from a single $150m early-stage fund into an $85 billion global powerhouse. It was a privilege to sit down with Doug and learn from him. We talk about his tough start at Sequoia, get into the technicalities of great go-to-market motions, and survey his advice for other investors in the industry. A key theme that will stick with me from this conversation is Doug’s insistence on keeping things simple and clear. Please enjoy my great conversation with Doug Leone. Listen to Founders Podcast For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page here. ----- This episode is brought to you by Tegus. Tegus is the modern research platform for leading investors. Tired of running your own expert calls to get up to speed on a company? Tegus lets you ramp faster and find answers to critical questions more efficiently than any alternative method. The gold standard for research, the Tegus platform delivers unmatched access to timely, qualitative insights through the largest and most differentiated expert call transcript database. With over 60,000 transcripts spanning 22,000 public and private companies, investors can accelerate their fundamental research process by discovering highly-differentiated and reliable insights that can’t be found anywhere else in the market. As a listener, drive your next investment thesis forward with Tegus for free at tegus.co/patrick. ----- Invest Like the Best is a property of Colossus, LLC. For more episodes of Invest Like the Best, visit joincolossus.com/episodes.  Past guests include Tobi Lutke, Kevin Systrom, Mike Krieger, John Collison, Kat Cole, Marc Andreessen, Matthew Ball, Bill Gurley, Anu Hariharan, Ben Thompson, and many more. Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here. Follow us on Twitter: @patrick_oshag | @JoinColossus Show Notes [00:03:21] - [First question] - What Don Valentine’s heart was like [00:06:30] - The most productive and unproductive parts of Don’s toughness  [00:10:55] - Why it’s so important to understand someone’s core motivations [00:14:18] - Questions or topics he returns to when getting to know people  [00:16:44] - The most formative experiences he had prior to becoming an investor that impacted his investing the most  [00:20:37] - What venture looks like to him today relative to his prior career [00:23:51] - His style of approaching emerging technology markets like AI as an investor   [00:26:37] - Whether or not he’d go into venture today if he was in his late 20s  [00:28:30] - Commonalities between the very best at going to market effectively  [00:31:11] - The key components of great product positioning   [00:37:15] - How interacting with companies early on has changed over the ears [00:41:12] - Whether or not new entrants into venture should build firms with enterprise value  [00:46:14] - Sussing out the killer gene in somebody  [00:49:04] - How successful people can instill the lessons learned from hardship into their children  [00:53:52] - Whether or not his view on competitive advantage has changed   [00:55:21] - The early 2000s clawback at Sequoia and what navigating that period was like  [01:00:40] - The most interesting question an LP has ever asked him  [01:05:00] - Which dinner companions he’d pick to educate a newly successful founder [01:07:59] - The kindest thing anyone has ever done for him

26 Dec 20231h 9min

My guest today is Justin Ishbia. Justin is the Founding Partner of Shore Capital. Shore is a private equity firm that invests in microcap businesses within industry niches. With $7 billion in capital deployed but an average transaction size of just $12 million, Justin has worked to build a system to drive success for hundreds of businesses through replicable operating procedures and championing young professionals.  The firm has created a moat around volume with nearly 600 acquisitions over the last three years, some of the highest numbers in the world. We discuss identifying growth prospects, constructing a meaningful board, and the business mentality behind "main street," not wall street, as Justin puts it. Please enjoy my conversation with Justin Ishbia.  Listen to Founders Podcast For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page here. ----- This episode is brought to you by Tegus, the modern research platform for leading investors. Stretch your research budget with flexible expert calls you can trust. At a fraction of the cost of traditional expert networks, Tegus customers pay only what an expert charges – with zero markups and no confusing call credits – netting an average 70% savings. Don’t want to conduct a full hour call? Tegus offers the ability to schedule 30-minutes, an offer you won’t find anywhere else. And they don’t stop there. With white-glove custom sourcing for every project and robust compliance measures, including a dedicated 50+ analyst team that vets every call transcript, Tegus ensures your privacy and protection. As the industry innovator for qualitative insights, Tegus helps you find the right experts you need at a quality and speed that can’t be matched. For a limited time, as a listener, you can trial Tegus for free by visiting tegus.co/patrick. ----- Invest Like the Best is a property of Colossus, LLC. For more episodes of Invest Like the Best, visit joincolossus.com/episodes.  Past guests include Tobi Lutke, Kevin Systrom, Mike Krieger, John Collison, Kat Cole, Marc Andreessen, Matthew Ball, Bill Gurley, Anu Hariharan, Ben Thompson, and many more. Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here. Follow us on Twitter: @patrick_oshag | @JoinColossus Show Notes: (00:03:10) - (first question) - “The system is the star” and how it applies to Shore Capital  (00:07:10) - Shore Capital’s origin story (00:12:48) - What the perfect type of deal looks like for Justin  (00:16:34) - The historical rates of return for their deals  (00:18:12) - Shore Capital’s defensibility and strategic advantages  (00:22:13) - Their board system and incentive structure  (00:28:20) - Why they focus on the industrial subsector  (00:31:21) - Overview of thesis evaluation and generation  (00:37:24) - What they’re looking for during the diligence stage (00:40:45) - The bad reputation of levered rollups     (00:43:57) - What he’s learned about negotiations (00:46:39) - The weak points of Shore Capital’s system (00:48:59) - The Innovation Stack; Thinking about stacking unfair advantages  (00:52:11) - Selling a business and what buyers are looking for   (00:55:08) - Heavy focus on operations and their portfolio performance group  (00:58:00) - Why nobody above an associate level has ever left Shore Capital  (00:60:46) - Lessons learned becoming the owner of a major sports franchise  (01:03:56) - What’s surprising about how the league functions  (01:05:05) - Key people and firms he’s learned the most from  (01:07:17) - Where Shore Capital’s system could improve the most  (01:11:06) - The kindest thing anyone has ever done for Justin

19 Dec 20231h 13min