European Stocks Rally, U.S. Tax Cuts & Germany’s Confidence Drop: PALvatar Market Recap - February 26, 2025

Welcome to the latest edition of V Questions, where expert guests answer 5 questions in 1 take with zero preparation. On today’s show, Mike Coolbaugh, Diego Parrilla, and David Higgins share their thoughts on the trajectory of inflation in 2023, the likelihood of a severe recession, and why volatility is hardly a bad thing for prepared investors. Are you ready to ride the new wave? Don’t miss this discussion of how to navigate the markets in 2023. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

7 Jan 202313min

With Nonfarm payrolls coming in above estimates, and wage growth softer than expected, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said today that “the Fed needs to stay the course” with regards to raising interest rates in 2023. U.S. equities rallied on the news — essentially calling the Fed’s bluff as the market prices in a pause in the coming months and rate cuts in the latter half of the year. On today’s show, Maggie Lake sits down with Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakly Advisory Group, to sift through the market’s response to mixed economic data and hear why Peter believes that the Fed is almost done hiking rates. As he wrote in the latest edition of The Boock Report, Peter believes that the market won’t find a bottom “until everyone throws in the investing towel not wanting to ever own a stock again.” He’ll share where he believes we’re at in that process, and where he’s looking for opportunities along the way. Plus, we’ll also see a clip from our new series, Steno’s Signals, with Andreas Steno Larsen, on what falling inflation means for equities and energy. Watch the entire interview here: https://rvtv.io/3GqqeWL Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

6 Jan 202336min

U.S. stocks are down after new employment and jobless claims data released this morning indicated a still-resilient labor market. Private-sector employment rose by 235,000 in December, according to the latest ADP employment report, well above expectations. Annual pay for “job-stayers” rose 7.3%. Meanwhile, new jobless claims came in below estimates. On today’s show, Michael Gayed, the portfolio manager at Toroso Investments and editor of The Lead-Lag Report, joins Andreas Steno Larsen to discuss what signals caused him to switch from calling for a “melt-up” to an “imminent crash” at the end of 2022, and where he believes market conditions are pointing next. Plus, we hear from David Higgins about the possibility of a 2023 recession and why it might last longer than many expect. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

5 Jan 202337min

Federal Reserve officials believe that “substantially more evidence” of slowing inflation is necessary before the central bank cuts interest rates this year, according to the December FOMC minutes which were released Wednesday afternoon. Fed officials cited concern that inflation could prove “modestly persistent,” and said that higher rates for longer will be necessary to fight inflation. Officials agreed that rate cuts shouldn’t happen in 2023. On today’s Daily Briefing, Darius Dale, the founder of 42 Macro, joins Maggie Lake to discuss the market’s response to this news, his view of inflation, and what it all means for global assets as we navigate the year ahead. Plus, we hear from Mish Schnieder of MarketGauge.com who gives us her opinion of where inflation will head in 2023. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

4 Jan 202336min

The first trading day of 2023 is in the books and boy was it eventful. As warmer-than-average temperatures hold up across the globe, natural gas prices are falling off a cliff. At the time of this writing, natural gas futures are down 11.8%. Oil is down meaningfully as well. Meanwhile, U.S. stocks gave up early morning gains, with Apple and Tesla leading to the downside. On today’s show, Tony and Andreas will discuss the macro dynamics that are driving this sell-off in energy and share how they’re playing the sector in the new year. Plus, they’ll discuss why Elon Musk has become a problem for the typical Tesla investor and take a look at what else you should keep an eye on in the months ahead. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

3 Jan 202334min

There’s no going back to 2019, according to Jim Bianco, and the sooner we accept reality the better we’ll be able to see new opportunities. The post-pandemic global economy is fundamentally different, and the “easy money” era is over. In the final episode of our ‘Best of 2022’ series, Raoul Pal welcomes the founder of Bianco Research for a talk about inflation and the longer-term implications of soaring consumer prices. Raoul and Jim agree on many issues – that the U.S. is already in recession, for one. But they also disagree on other big points, such as inflation. As Jim sees it, the Federal Reserve is going to crush inflation, but consumer prices are still going to settle at a higher level. This is a can’t-miss conversation between two great macro minds on a critical “Make or Break” issue. Recorded on Wednesday September 21, 2022. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

30 Dec 20221h 16min

Dario’s views of the global economy’s structure and how the next decade plays out are very different from those of most observers. He thinks the 1970s analogue is the wrong one to look at and that the postwar decades, the 1940s and the 1950s, provide a better framework. At the same time, he foresees a move toward a "tangible economy" and away from the "intangible economy" of the 2010s. In the fourth installment of our ‘Best of 2022’ series, Dario and Raoul talk about ramifications of this transition for inflation, growth, and interest rates. Recorded on May 12th, 2022. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

29 Dec 202248min

“Regionalization” is the transition from a world of stable prices and consistent growth to one of rising costs of living where the threat of global famine is real. The breakdown of an economic order framed by just-in-time supply chains requires a rethink of trade networks and relationships. Geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan addresses these issues and more in his new book “The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization.” In the third episode of our ‘Best of 2022’ series, Zeihan joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about implications of this transition, including the end of China’s time as a great power but the perpetuation of the U.S. dollar’s status as the global reserve currency. Recorded on May 31, 2022. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

28 Dec 20221h 10min