European Stocks Rally, U.S. Tax Cuts & Germany’s Confidence Drop: PALvatar Market Recap - February 26, 2025

It’s already been a tough, strange 11 months for everyone – and 2022’s not over yet. On a weekly interval basis, the S&P 500 has been in the red for more than 60% of the year. Treasuries have gone through multiple, nasty downturns and haven’t exactly performed counter to traditional risk assets. How much longer will this bear last? Are there any signs of hope? Michael Gayed, portfolio manager at Tidal Investment Group and the publisher of The Lead-Lag Report, joins Harry Melandri to break it all down on another fascinating episode of The Next Big Trade. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

4 Dec 202246min

Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman, the founder and chief investment officer of Praetorian Capital and the author of the “Adventures in Capitalism” blog, has been investing for more than two decades. You don’t survive that long in financial markets without accruing some success. Kuppy joins Maggie Lake to discuss his approach to trend-following and event-driven investing, with illustrations from the early days of COVID-19 about minimizing risk and maximizing profit. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

3 Dec 202249min

Equity futures sagged this morning with the release of a stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report for November, as both the pace of new hiring and wage growth suggested inflation is more than a matter of snarled supply chains and a European war. Cem Karsan, the founder of Kai Volatility Advisors, joins Andreas Steno Larsen for today’s Daily Briefing to assess the implications of persistent U.S. labor market strength. We also hear from Whitney Baker on why a recession is the only thing that will stunt consumption and thus slow inflation. Watch the full conversation between Andreas Steno Larsen and Whitney Baker here: rvtv.io/3VIFnbU. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

2 Dec 202240min

The Institute of Supply Management’s gauge of manufacturing activity declined for the fifth month out of the last six in November and slipped below 50 for the first time since May 2020, another sign that growth is slowing in the U.S. As investors look forward to Friday’s jobs report, initial claims for unemployment insurance reached 1.6 million during the week ended Nov. 19, the highest level in a year. Weston Nakamura welcomes Daniel Lacalle, the chief economist at Tressis, to talk about growth in the U.S. and abroad as central bankers continue to strike appropriate policy responses. We also hear from Geo Chen, the author of the Fidenza Macro blog, who explains why whoever replaces Haruhiko Kuroda as the governor of the Bank of Japan will be forced to hike rates sooner rather than later. Watch Geo Chen’s full presentation here: https://rvtv.io/3H0XR36. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

1 Dec 202238min

U.S. equity indexes surged into positive territory as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke on Wednesday on his acknowledgement that the “time for moderating” interest-rate increases “may come as soon as December.” The market seized on the step-down from 75 basis points to 50 rather than Powell’s codicils: the rate peak is likely “somewhat higher” than the Fed’s September forecast, and there’s a long way to go to restore price stability. In addition to more restrictive monetary policy, Powell noted the critical importance of labor market balance among the macro conditions the Fed wants to see before it’ll say inflation is whipped. Dave Lauer, the CEO of Urvin Finance, joins Ash Bennington for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about the market’s reaction to Powell’s speech, recent economic data, and the implications of a “sustained period of below-trend growth” that gets us back to price stability. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

30 Nov 202233min

Real Vision Global Markets Editor Weston Nakamura visits the WTFinance podcast to share with host Anthony Fatseas his unconventional path to a career in markets and to explain his unique methods of analyzing price action. Weston and Anthony also talk about why the Bank of Japan is the most influential central bank of our time and a potential catalyst for further bond market volatility. Watch the video at https://www.youtube.com/@WTFinancepodcast. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

30 Nov 20221h 5min

U.S. equities were mixed-to-negative heading into Tuesday’s close, as investors remain cautious ahead of Friday’s release of the November jobs report. Chinese authorities seem to have stifled “Zero COVID” protests, as concerns about growth in the world’s second-largest economy persist. Crude oil prices have stabilized today, with the generic front-month futures contract trading around the historically significant $75 per barrel level. Tony Greer, the founder of TG Macro and the editor of the Morning Navigator newsletter, joins Andreas Steno Larsen for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about recent price action, the energy trade, and why in the world the Netherlands has agreed to basically destroy 3,000 working farms and what impact the move will have on global food markets. We also hear from Real Vision macro analyst Michael Coolbaugh, who makes the bearish case for crude oil heading into 2023. Watch the entire conversation between Michael Coolbaugh and James Helliwell here: https://rvtv.io/3Uc9uHr. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

29 Nov 202236min

Historic protests over the weekend have pushed President Xi Jinping into perhaps the most uncomfortable position of his tenure, as China’s continuing struggle with COVID-19 restrictions weighed on market sentiment ahead of Monday’s open. All three major U.S. equity indexes were down more than 1% heading into the close, while investors sought safety in government bonds. Already skeptical of the recent rally, in his most recent research note Tavi Costa shared ample evidence a recession is imminent. Tavi, a portfolio manager at Crescat Capital, joins Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to assess the global implications of growing domestic unrest over China’s lockdowns, to explain why we should be paying attention to the U.S. Treasury yield curve, and to identify a potentially highly profitable macro trade for the next two years. We also hear from Victor Shih about the future of China’s relationship with the rest of the world. Watch the full conversation between Victor Shih and Maggie Lake here: rvtv.io/3W0wYBt. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

28 Nov 202236min