Did Macron Convince Putin Not To Invade Ukraine?
President Emmanuel Macron of France met with President Vladimir Putin of Russia in Moscow on Monday and emerged with what seemed like good news: There’d be no further escalation of the Ukraine crisis. Indeed, equity indexes rallied, and crude oil prices backed off seven-year highs. But the Kremlin, while conceding the meeting had provided the basis for further work toward deescalation, said Macron’s interpretation of Putin’s intentions was “not right.” Meanwhile, President Joe Biden hosted new German Chancellor Olaf Scholz for talks about the situation in the Baltics, agreeing that construction of the critical Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline would be stopped should Russia invade Ukraine. Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro and editor of the Morning Navigator newsletter, joins Real Vision’s Alfonso Peccatiello to sort out implications for stock and commodity markets in light of recent geopolitical events. Tony also talks about why the FAANG stocks have lagged of late, particularly relative to energy. And Weston Nakamura, our man on the ground in Asia, drops in to share insights on China’s recent moves to accommodate markets even as western policymakers withdraw stimulus. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3guKIB9 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
9 Feb 202238min
Can Small-Cap Stocks Help You Beat Inflation?
The small-cap Russell 2000 Index posted an impressive 14.8% gain during 2021, but nearly all of it came in the first quarter. And weakness over the ensuing nine months carried into the first month of 2022, when the index shed 9.7%. Francis Gannon, co-chief investment officer of Royce Investment Partners, notes this frustrating performance came despite generally strong earnings growth for small-cap companies. Gannon joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to share his outlook for small caps over the balance of 2022, including the fact that it’s the only major asset class to have outpaced inflation during every decade since the 1930s. And rising interest rates could provide an additional tailwind for small-cap value stocks such as regional banks. Meanwhile, major indexes reflect uncertainty ahead of Thursday’s release of Consumer Price Index data for January, as investors weigh the potential for a 50-basis-point hike by the Federal Reserve. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3HBlVau Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
8 Feb 202236min
Exploring China's Political and Economic Climate
Mike Green sits down with Louis Vincent Gave, CEO of Gavekal Research, to examine the political and economic climate of China. They look at China's 'outsized' role in the world and what impact joining the WTO had on the Chinese nearly two decades ago. The conversation also looks to the future -and the possibility of a digital currency in China -in time for the Beijing Olympics. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
7 Feb 20221h 27min
Post-Trade Analysis: Long Position SONY/Short XLK
Weston Nakamura closes his long Sony Corp. (NYSE: SONY)/short Technology Select SPDR Fund (NYSE: XLK) market-neutral pair trade, as SONY shares rallied following an intraday trading halt on news of its acquisition of Bungie for $3.6 billion Weston shares his thought process and overall assessment. Though it was a net-profitable trade in an environment of elevated global equity volatility, Weston’s frank self-evaluation is that this was a flawed structure. He categorizes this win as “right for the wrong reasons.” In other words, he got lucky. Weston expands on the importance of applying the framework of being “right/wrong, for the right/wrong reason” for all traders and investors. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
6 Feb 202215min
"Whiplash Week" Ends With a Jobs Jolt
It wasn’t just the nonfarm payrolls data for January that moved markets on Friday. Upward revisions to prior months’ reports put a fresh glow on the U.S. economy – and also invited questions about Federal Reserve policy. “Too late the hawk” is how Harry Melandri might put it. Melandri, currently an advisor with MI2 Partners and formerly of Deutsche Asset Management and the Bank of England, notes that we have hit our “max non-inflationary growth potential.” In fact, the Fed “could tighten a lot without having a restrictive monetary policy.” The issue now could be either how big is the “everything bubble” in the U.S. or whether inflation or growth is the central bank’s key policy objective. Melandri joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake at the end of one of the most fascinating weeks in recent financial market history. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3rsVnTh Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
5 Feb 202236min
The ECB Joins the Inflation Fight
European Central Bank President Christine LaGarde now concedes the potential need for a rate hike in 2022 in the face of record-high inflation on the Continent, the same day the Bank of England announced a second consecutive increase to its benchmark rate since 2004 and began its “quantitative tightening” process. Meanwhile, on Wall Street, both Facebook parent Meta and PayPal have experienced massive value destruction in the aftermath of soft fourth-quarter results and softer forward guidance. Michael Gayed, CIO and portfolio manager at Toroso Investments, joins Real Vision’s Alfonso Peccatiello to talk about central bank moves, big tech earnings, and broader economic and market realities. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3L3CUo5 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
4 Feb 202236min
The Fed Probably Won't Raise Rates Seven Times in 2022
The ADP employment report for January showed a net loss of jobs, consumer spending is slowing, and President Biden is sending 3,000 troops to Eastern and Central Europe in response to Russian aggression against Ukraine. Like Apple’s, Alphabet’s fourth-quarter results blew away expectations. But those look like exceptions to the rule of a generally mixed earnings picture. Against increasing economic uncertainty and rising geopolitical instability, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates a total of 175 basis points in 2022. Darius Dale, CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to talk about where markets go from here. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3Hj4jzU Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
3 Feb 202235min
Commodity Markets Rise to the Drums of War
It’s already been a good year for hydrocarbons, with crude oil and natural gas prices rising along with geopolitical tensions in Central Europe. The threat of war is now driving up prices of agricultural commodities, including wheat, barely, corn, and rapeseed, with consequences far beyond the region. Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro and editor of the Morning Navigator newsletter, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to discuss emerging opportunities in real assets. Meanwhile, India plans to launch a digital rupee during the fiscal year that starts April and to impose a 30% tax on transfers of virtual assets, as one of the world’s key markets warms to cryptocurrency. Real Vision’s eyes and ears in India, Nipun Kalra, joins to talk about crypto’s big win on the subcontinent. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3ghKtJE Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
2 Feb 202236min
