E71: Russia/Ukraine deep dive: escalation, risk factors, financial fallout, exit ramps and more

(0:00) David Friedberg welcomes Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins! (1:32) How she ended up in Trump's two administrations, history of the USDA (16:56) Trump's first 100 days, what needs to be reformed in the USDA (21:31) SNAP's massive impact on USDA budget: soda, obesity, health challenges; how being DC outsiders helps the Trump Administration (30:48) How she reconciles running a department with a lot of government intervention after coming from a free market background (34:33) State of US farming in 2025, labor costs, opening up new markets, and more (42:11) Working with DOGE, Farm Bill negotiation, stance on agricultural innovation Follow Secretary Rollins: https://x.com/SecRollins https://x.com/BrookeLRollins Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect

4 Maj 50min

(0:00) The Besties welcome Box's Aaron Levie and Flexport's Ryan Petersen! (4:05) Is Sacks back? (8:19) Reflecting on Trump's first 100 days (28:16) Global trade disruption, how businesses are dealing with tariffs (49:14) Amazon flip-flops on its tariff pricing feature, national security issues (1:04:13) AI agents, 1,000,000X'ing AI, and more Follow Aaron Levie: https://x.com/levie Follow Ryan Petersen: https://x.com/typesfast Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OODA_loop https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/joe-biden/biden-warns-risk-nuclear-armageddon-highest-cuban-missile-crisis-rcna51146 https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/30/world/europe/us-ukraine-military-war-takeaways.html https://x.com/Molson_Hart/status/1915248938753392642 https://x.com/SecScottBessent/status/1917697018551754802 https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/29/us/politics/trump-amazon-tariffs-prices.html https://x.com/chamath/status/1908239828283777393 https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-plots-charging-20-000-a-month-for-phd-level-agents?rc=pxkrxo https://manus.im https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/benchmark-invests-chinese-startup-behind-manus-ai-agent?rc=pxkrxo https://polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-2025?tid=1746130417369

2 Maj 1h 35min

(0:00) The Besties intro Andrew Ross Sorkin (2:04) Market bump: Trump rally or a Bessent put? (18:04) Are tariffs damaging the American "brand"? Apple's investment in India (38:18) Balance of power politics, Ukraine/Russia ceasefire negotiation halted over Crimea (50:00) Alphabet earnings: Massive resiliency, Google's Gemini Problem (1:05:40) Tesla jumps on Elon's return, pulling back from DOGE (1:18:35) Science Corner: China's Thorium Breakthrough Follow Andrew: https://x.com/andrewrsorkin Follow the besties:  https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.DJI:INDEXDJX?comparison=INDEXSP%3A.INX%2CINDEXNASDAQ%3A.IXIC&window=5D https://x.com/nic__carter/status/1909066161464959070 https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/16/business/china-rare-earths-us.html https://x.com/TheTranscript_/status/1915116330534998440 https://www.ft.com/content/c2be45b8-cfad-4cbb-9a1a-bfd0626be372 https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/22/world/europe/ukraine-cease-fire-talks.html https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2015/03/20/one-year-after-russia-annexed-crimea-locals-prefer-moscow-to-kiev https://x.com/EconomyApp/status/1915501252420784499 https://www.artificialintelligence-news.com/news/chinese-firms-cloud-loophole-access-us-ai-tech https://polymarket.com/event/how-much-spending-will-elon-and-doge-cut-in-2025 https://doge.gov/savings https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3300360/chinas-thorium-survey-finds-endless-energy-source-right-under-our-feet https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/es/market-insights/latest-news/energy-transition/020123-china-to-maintain-renewables-growth-pace-in-2023-despite-uncertainty https://www.reuters.com/world/china/images-show-china-building-huge-fusion-research-facility-analysts-say-2025-01-28

26 Apr 1h 29min

(0:00) The Besties welcome Tim Dillon! (6:56) Nvidia H20 export controls, the China workaround, plausible deniability by chipmakers selling to China-linked entities (28:45) Trump vs. Harvard: Why the White House is threatening to take Harvard's tax-exempt status away (57:04) Hollywood's DEI facade, thoughts on AI, and more (1:18:06) Celebrity Jeopardy update: Friedberg is heading to the finals! (1:26:44) Science Corner: Mitochondrial Therapy Follow Tim: https://x.com/TimJDillon Check out Tim's new special: https://www.netflix.com/title/81992010 Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wUzmVo2dZNs https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-trump-tariffs-trade-war-04-15-25/card/nvidia-records-5-5-billion-charge-on-new-h20-export-restrictions-LXjxlqr2m80QIrfJxnYZ https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/trump-chip-exports-nvidia-h20-china-amd-d2c4c866 https://www.reuters.com/technology/exclusive-nvidia-offers-new-advanced-chip-china-that-meets-us-export-controls-2022-11-08 https://abachy.com/news/nvidia-unveil-new-ai-chips-chinese-market-after-us-bans-a800-and-h800 https://www.moomoo.com/community/feed/compared-to-the-h100-how-is-the-performance-of-the-111725151846805 https://www.reuters.com/technology/tsmc-could-face-1-billion-or-more-fine-us-probe-sources-say-2025-04-08 https://www.bis.gov https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/15/us-is-unable-to-replace-rare-earths-supply-from-china-warns-csis-.html https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-31/trump-administration-to-review-billions-in-grants-to-harvard https://www.harvard.edu/research-funding/wp-content/uploads/sites/16/2025/04/Letter-Sent-to-Harvard-2025-04-11.pdf https://www.harvard.edu/president/news/2025/the-promise-of-american-higher-education https://apnews.com/article/harvard-trump-administration-federal-cuts-antisemitism-0a1fb70a2c1055bda7c4c5a5c476e18d https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/16/politics/irs-harvard-tax-exempt-status/index.html https://www.boston.com/news/local-news/2024/09/05/harvard-comes-in-dead-last-in-nationwide-free-speech-rankings https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Jones_University_v._United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Students_for_Fair_Admissions_v._Harvard https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2022/7/13/faculty-survey-political-leaning https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-parliament-extends-martial-law-until-august-2025-04-16 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06537-z https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-025-00848-z https://www.researchgate.net/publication/389907980_Organelle-tuning_condition_robustly_fabricates_energetic_mitochondria_for_cartilage_regeneration/fulltext/67d8575e478c5a3feda50563/Organelle-tuning-condition-robustly-fabricates-energetic-mitochondria-for-cartilage-regeneration.pdf https://www.foxnews.com/media/george-clooney-calls-breaking-biden-2024-his-civic-duty-says-democrats-werent-telling-truth

19 Apr 1h 38min

(0:00) Bestie intros! (0:58) Reacting to Trump targeting China and postponing all other reciprocal tariffs (21:21) Measures for success of tariffs, debating the impact of letting China into the WTO (46:14) Is the US being exploited on trade? Was free trade a mistake? (1:02:01) Recession chances, How the Trump administration gathers information (1:19:39) Future of the Democratic Party, Abundance agenda, DOGE (1:51:00) The Besties recap the debate and Chamath recaps the Breakthrough Prize Ceremony Follow Larry: https://x.com/LHSummers Follow Ezra: https://x.com/ezraklein Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114309144289505174 https://x.com/WhiteHouse/status/1910058352278708638 https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/why-trump-blinked-on-tariffs-b588aea8 https://breakthroughprize.org

11 Apr 2h 1min

(0:00) The Besties welcome Ben Shapiro and Antonio Gracias (1:54) Why Antonio is helping out and what it's like working with DOGE (4:56) DOGE's latest findings: illegal immigration, social security, and more (27:59) Was Biden's open border policy a Dem strategy to expand their voter base? (39:55) Tariffs: Liberation Day chaos, reactions, strategy (55:26) Impact, consequences, and risks for the Trump Administration (1:13:50) How the US can thrive in a high-tariff world (1:31:33) Future US political landscape if the tariff strategy fails (1:42:27) Chamath recaps his best-performing asset of 2025 + wrap Follow Antonio: https://x.com/AntonioGracias Follow Ben: https://x.com/benshapiro Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://x.com/AntonioGracias/status/1906877800511893670 https://polymarket.com/event/magnificent-7-shrinks-below-30-of-sp-500-in-2025?tid=1743434648860 https://x.com/Geiger_Capital/status/1907553323387072774 https://x.com/enriqueabeyta/status/1907796286763409439 https://x.com/Geiger_Capital/status/1907622848149037509 https://x.com/litcapital/status/1907813630227173534 https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/asml-euv-machine-lithography-chips-967954d0 https://www.hoover.org/publications/goodfellows https://www.ft.com/content/bcb1d331-5d8e-4cac-811e-eac7d9448486

5 Apr 1h 54min

(0:00) Friedberg and Jason are live from Austin! (2:51) How building an audience has impacted the Besties (11:15) Colin & Samir join the Besties! (12:01) Evolution of short-form and long-form content (22:18) Business models for creatives (35:04) Advice to up and coming creators (42:10) Chris Williamson joins the Besties! (50:17) Making it seem effortless (57:47) Monetizing content (1:05:02) Scaling a one-man show (1:19:15) Bryan Johnson joins the Besties! (1:20:13) Spotify’s move to video (1:21:21) Bryan’s Ketamine experience (1:28:03) Creators and value props (1:36:52) Issues with the US food industry (1:43:10) Top tips for healthy living Thanks to our partners for making this happen: Gemini: Go to https://www.gemini.com/allin to get $50 in bitcoin when you sign up and trade. Function Health: Go to https://www.functionhealth.com/allin and use gift code ALLIN100 at checkout to get a $100 credit toward membership - limited to the first 1K listeners. NIAGEN Plus IVs: Visit https://www.niagenplus.com to discover the future of cellular performance. Follow Colin and Samir: https://www.youtube.com/@ColinandSamir https://x.com/ColinandSamir Follow Chris Williamson: https://www.youtube.com/@ChrisWillx https://x.com/ChrisWillx Follow Bryan Johnson: https://www.youtube.com/@BryanJohnson   https://x.com/bryan_johnson Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect

3 Apr 1h 50min

(0:00) The Besties welcome Gavin Baker back on the show! (1:20) Nvidia balance sheet questions, CoreWeave IPO, M&A/IPO bounce back (16:22) US vs China in AI: Manus, China building its own Nvidia, and more (28:37) The Administration's endgame for tariffs (53:05) Signalgate: context and fallout (1:09:42) El Salvador deportations Follow Gavin: https://x.com/GavinSBaker Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.reuters.com/technology/coreweave-planning-cut-us-ipo-size-price-below-range-source-says-2025-03-27 https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-adds-dozens-entities-export-restriction-list-2025-03-25 https://modelcontextprotocol.io/introduction https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-plots-charging-20-000-a-month-for-phd-level-agents?rc=pxkrxo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A8wJc7vHcTs https://x.com/JohnArnoldFndtn/status/1905296181208416744 https://x.com/chamath/status/1904547884877701610 https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2025/03/trump-administration-accidentally-texted-me-its-war-plans/682151 https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/03/invocation-of-the-alien-enemies-act-regarding-the-invasion-of-the-united-states-by-tren-de-aragua https://www.statista.com/statistics/696152/homicide-rate-in-el-salvador https://x.com/Sec_Noem/status/1905034256826408982

29 Mars 1h 28min