Top Traders Unplugged22 Mars 2025

SI340: ETFs, Size, and the Commodity Problem ft. Alan Dunne

In today’s episode, Alan Dunne and I take a step back - and a step forward - by exploring 125 years of hard-earned market wisdom, courtesy of the Global Investment Returns Yearbook, the definitive source of long-term asset class performance. What does this rich dataset tell us about equities, bonds, diversification, and the underrated role of patience in investing? And how relevant are these lessons for investors navigating today’s high-concentration markets, stubborn inflation, and the potential cracks in the classic 60/40 portfolio?

But that’s not all - we also dive into one of the most overlooked challenges facing systematic trend followers today: capacity constraints, especially in commodities. Drawing on Quantica’s latest research, we examine why commodities have historically been critical to CTA performance, how liquidity limits silently erode returns as strategies scale, and why the explosive growth of trend following ETFs may come at a hidden cost investors rarely see.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:41 - What has caught our attention recently?

04:14 - A new era for Germany?

10:02 - The ETF space is on fire

11:21 - The Nordic countries are on a roll

12:18 - Dunne's global macro perspective

21:39 - Industry performance update

27:07 - An analysis of the Global Investment Returns Yearbook

34:29 - Why are expected returns so far off real returns in the Pension Fund space?

41:07 - The cycle of returns

46:07 - When trend following hits capacity

53:56 - Why Niels is concerned about new replication products

58:52 - Can trading few markets actually provide more diversification than trading many markets?

01:03:40 - What is up for next week?

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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