Why a Mar-a-Lago Accord to weaken the dollar could be an act of self-harm

Why a Mar-a-Lago Accord to weaken the dollar could be an act of self-harm

The root cause of America's economic imbalances can be traced to a single factor: the strength of the US dollar. At least, that’s the view of Stephen Miran, President Trump’s newly appointed Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors.

In an essay published late last year, Miran argued that the dollar's strength, driven by inelastic demand for Treasuries and the dollar’s status as a global reserve currency, has resulted in persistently cheap imports, reduced the competitiveness of its exports, eroded US manufacturing, and resulted in soaring deficits.

His answer to this problem is a so-called Mar-a-Lago Accord, where trading partners would sell dollars and US Treasuries from their FX reserves or face higher tariffs and the removal of security guarantees.

But is an overvalued dollar really to blame for America’s financial problems? Would trading partners agree to the plan? And what could it mean for the US markets?

In this podcast, ING’s Chris Turner and Padhraic Garvey explain why they think the plan would be counterproductive and fraught with risk.

Avsnitt(123)

Pains, Chains and Automobiles

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The global car industry was forced to slam on the brakes this year, as a shortage of semiconductors hit production just as demand was starting to pick up. While the problem is expected to be temporary, unresolved supply issues and the rise of electric cars, which are even more reliant on chips, suggest there may be bumps in the road ahead, as ING's Oleksiy Soroka explains.

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The Bank of England's outgoing chief economist Andy Haldane has sounded the alarm on inflation repeatedly this year and was the only MPC member to vote to reduce QE at this week's policy meeting. In this podcast, ING's James Smith weighs in on the debate and looks at the prospects for a rate hike as soon as next year.

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ECB avoids taper talk but for how long?

ECB avoids taper talk but for how long?

The European Central Bank said it is still too early to discuss reducing monetary stimulus, even as it raised its growth and inflation forecasts for this year and next. In this podcast, ING's Carsten Brzeski discusses the Bank's latest decision and when it may be forced to change tack.

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Why the Fed may be wrong about inflation

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US inflation is rising at the fastest pace in more than a decade. Should we be worried? In this podcast, ING's James Knightley discusses whether recent price rises are likely to be transitory as the Federal Reserve believes, or a more sustained risk to the recovery.

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A busy year for high yield

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Our High Yield trading, strategy and syndicate teams take over this week's podcast for an informal conversation around year-to-date primary debt markets.

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