Value Investors Miss On Upside by Focusing on Dividends and Intrinsic Value

As we have seen, there are 20 reasons why there could be a second stock market crash ahead - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YnZyrUWGJHc And we have also discussed whether the stock market is in a bubble or not - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-pnZ2DLBxaQ Logically, what is left to discuss is what are the reasons why the stock market might not crash as there is a reason, or more of them why stocks are going higher despite the bad economic data. The 10 reasons stocks might not crash again are the following: Monetary policy: 1) There sill be no stock market crash because low interest rates make stocks dirt cheap. 2) Plus, the FED is pumping so much money into the system, that money has to go somewhere 3) Inflation - there is measured inflation and financial asset inflation 4) Paradigm shift - it could be that currencies aren't worth much in 5 years 5) Given current valuations and the above, stocks are dirt cheap Secular Mega Trends preventing the stock market from crashing: 6) Middle class growing fast and investing 7) Tech boom - not only tech stocks 8) A better world Investing 9) Accumulate wealth all the time - compounding 10) Think of your life cycle and stock market crashes - does it really matter Want to know more about what I do? https://goo.gl/MQG2k5 Full-time independent stock market analyst and researcher! STOCK MARKET RESEARCH PLATFORM (analysis, stocks to buy, model portfolio) Stock Ideas and Analyses for The Small Investor: https://goo.gl/GdKEoe I am also a book author: Modern Value Investing book: https://amzn.to/2lvfH3t More at the Sven Carlin blog: https://svencarlin.com/ Check out Modern Value Investing YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/InvestwithSvenCarlinPhD

3 Nov 202017min

20 Factors Why the Stock Market Will Crash! If you look at factors from a historical perspective, a stock market crash looks inevitable. Here are the reasons why stocks will crash: 1) The poor credit market can't survive and a liquidity crisis will crash corporations, governments and consequently stocks. 2) Buybacks will be cut in half in 2020 and therefore less buying activity will crash stocks 3) Slow economic growth 4) Consumer debt is high and people can't spend more 5) The stock market PE ratio signals a crash ahead or low returns 6) Yield curve inverted signals recession 7) M3 money is low 8) No corporate earnings growth signal a stock market bubble 9) bond market is in junk territory 10) Worst economic recession since the great recession 11) Debt to GDP 150% 12) 5 stocks making 20% of S&P 500 index 13) March 2020 30% stock market crash 14) technicals - Fibonacci 15) Bear markets last 15 months on average 16) baby boomers selling 17) Buffett is selling stocks 18) There is deflation, not inflation 19) Buy stocks 20) There is no vaccine Want to know more about what I do? https://goo.gl/MQG2k5 Full-time independent stock market analyst and researcher! STOCK MARKET RESEARCH PLATFORM (analysis, stocks to buy, model portfolio) Stock Ideas and Analyses for The Small Investor: https://goo.gl/GdKEoe I am also a book author: Modern Value Investing book: https://amzn.to/2lvfH3t More at the Sven Carlin blog: https://svencarlin.com/ Check out Modern Value Investing YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/InvestwithSvenCarlinPhD

3 Nov 202024min

A stock market crash is what follows a stock market bubble. However, you can only know something is a stock market bubble after there is a stock market crash because if it doesn't pop or crash, it never becomes a bubble. In any case, we define what a stock market bubble is, what are the core concepts of a bubble, why a bubble bursts. We apply the Minsky credit cycle model to the current economic and stock market environment and also look into the fundamentals of the market because a bubble is a bubble only when the market is detached from fundamentals. Something that might not be the case now due to low interest rates. Video content - Current Stock Market and Economy Environment - Stock Market Bubble definition - Historical Stock Market Bubble and Crash Examples - Stock Market Fundamentals - Will the stock market crash or not! Want to know more about what I do? https://goo.gl/MQG2k5 Full-time independent stock market analyst and researcher! STOCK MARKET RESEARCH PLATFORM (analysis, stocks to buy, model portfolio) Stock Ideas and Analyses for The Small Investor: https://goo.gl/GdKEoe I am also a book author: Modern Value Investing book: https://amzn.to/2lvfH3t More at the Sven Carlin blog: https://svencarlin.com/ Check out Modern Value Investing YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/InvestwithSvenCarlinPhD

3 Nov 202015min

Stock Market News today - we discuss the current covid outlook, the impact on the economy, why it likely isn't a depression, just a recession. How will the economic rebound look like and what will be the consequences. Governments are piling debt that will be a future issues. We also touch on the FED, the fiscal and monetary stimulus and the possible long and short term impact on inflation. Further, we touch on investing in gold or crypto and what is Goldman's view there. Want to know more about what I do? https://goo.gl/MQG2k5 Full-time independent stock market analyst and researcher! STOCK MARKET RESEARCH PLATFORM (analysis, stocks to buy, model portfolio) Stock Ideas and Analyses for The Small Investor: https://goo.gl/GdKEoe I am also a book author: Modern Value Investing book: https://amzn.to/2lvfH3t More at the Sven Carlin blog: https://svencarlin.com/ Check out Modern Value Investing YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/InvestwithSvenCarlinPhD

3 Nov 202021min

In 2008 banks were too big to fail! In 2020, stocks might be too big too fail! We discuss the financialization of the economy,, how household wealth is impacted by financial engineering and low interest rates force people to invest. This all leads to stocks being hot and discussed by many, cheap brokers like Robinhood add to the party. Usually, it would be a huge warning sign for the stock market, but today it might be indicating that stocks are too big to fail. With stocks being $28 trillion of american wealth, or 23%, it is hard to imagine the FED letting the market crash due to repercussions on consumption and spending. Plus, the stimulus might keep the not so rich happy and avoid populism. It all depends how the current financial engineering situation will be managed. How the FED and politicians react will have huge repercussions on your investing, how the stimulus is used and how it impacts the economic situation. Want to know more about what I do? https://goo.gl/MQG2k5 Full-time independent stock market analyst and researcher! STOCK MARKET RESEARCH PLATFORM (analysis, stocks to buy, model portfolio) Stock Ideas and Analyses for The Small Investor: https://goo.gl/GdKEoe I am also a book author: Modern Value Investing book: https://amzn.to/2lvfH3t More at the Sven Carlin blog: https://svencarlin.com/ Check out Modern Value Investing YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/InvestwithSvenCarlinPhD

3 Nov 202020min

Nutrien Dividend Stock Analysis - A stock to watch! THE KEYS WHEN IT COMES TO NUTRIEN: - Low cost potash producer with 6 million tonnes production ramp up option at extremely low cost and 50 years of production ahead - gives a margin of safety, also the high margins protect the dividend - Integrated with retail after the merger with Agrium contributing $650 million in synergies - the retail segment is not as volatile as the fertilizer segment which gives also more stability to the dividend - $2 billion cash flow at the bottom, or possible bottom, of the fertilizer cycle. Even if cash flows fall to just $1 billion, that is what they pay out for dividends, thus still some room left - Good distributions to shareholders and sound balance sheet - strong buybacks and dividends from free cash flows - Possible growth coming from potential higher fertilizer pricing but also from operations as the constantly invest for growth. This could be a long-term compounder and dividend growth stock. Don't expect the dividend to grow linearly because the business isn't such, but it can grow - Potash is an oligopoly with 9 global players playing the prisoners dilemma game with China and India on pricing and production rates - Global demand is likely to grow but production growth has also a lot of potential. However, expansion is not cheap - The market is expecting lower for longer potash prices that would put pressure on the company and perhaps lower dividends - The trend is for an increase in demand for potash over the long-term. - Stock is at multi decade lows. - To make it a great stock to buy, a low risk high reward one, the market cap needs to be around $12 billion! So, depending on your risk appetite, see whether it is a stock to buy or a stock to watch. Want to know more about what I do? https://goo.gl/MQG2k5 Full-time independent stock market analyst and researcher! STOCK MARKET RESEARCH PLATFORM (analysis, stocks to buy, model portfolio) Stock Ideas and Analyses for The Small Investor: https://goo.gl/GdKEoe I am also a book author: Modern Value Investing book: https://amzn.to/2lvfH3t More at the Sven Carlin blog: https://svencarlin.com/ Check out Modern Value Investing YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/InvestwithSvenCarlinPhD

3 Nov 202015min

Stock markets are not predictable and uncertain. So is the economy, covid, trade, politics etc. Nobody knows what will happen and the only certainty is uncertainty. But, can we have some certainty when it comes to stock market investing? Yes we can! It all boils down to investing fundamentals, and what those matter for you. The key is to be in a place where the worst outcome is ok and allows you to create new streams of income with the current streams. This allows for long-term compounding and achieving satisfying investing returns. Want to know more about what I do? https://goo.gl/MQG2k5 Full-time independent stock market analyst and researcher! STOCK MARKET RESEARCH PLATFORM (analysis, stocks to buy, model portfolio) Stock Ideas and Analyses for The Small Investor: https://goo.gl/GdKEoe I am also a book author: Modern Value Investing book: https://amzn.to/2lvfH3t More at the Sven Carlin blog: https://svencarlin.com/ Check out Modern Value Investing YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/InvestwithSvenCarlinPhD

3 Nov 202016min

Before investing, you must know that stocks can crash 70% anytime and 50% of individual stocks will likely deliver negative returns or below 2% while 75% will under perform the market. If you are not ready for that, better don't invest in stocks! It is that simple! It is not about whether there is going to be a crash next, it is about what are you going to do when a crash comes and are you ready if stocks don't crash. I have looked at research that shows how investors under perform the market by trying to time a stock market crash and about how difficult it is to time it. The key is that you see how does the possibility and magnitude of a crash fit your tolerance. Stocks can crash 70% anytime and stay down for decades - are you ready for that? When it comes to individual stocks, the situation gets uglier. 30% of individual stocks will crash and actually deliver negative returns. Only 4% of stocks will do really great and compound! Can you handle the pain of investing in stocks? If you can't, I don't know, buy a house! Stocks can crash and individual stocks even more written version: https://sven-carlin-research-platform.teachable.com/courses/494365/lectures/17085038 Want to know more about what I do? https://goo.gl/MQG2k5 Full-time independent stock market analyst and researcher! STOCK MARKET RESEARCH PLATFORM (analysis, stocks to buy, model portfolio) Stock Ideas and Analyses for The Small Investor: https://goo.gl/GdKEoe I am also a book author: Modern Value Investing book: https://amzn.to/2lvfH3t More at the Sven Carlin blog: https://svencarlin.com/ Check out Modern Value Investing YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/InvestwithSvenCarlinPhD

3 Nov 202021min