Typhoon Bearing8 Feb 2023

23- What Happens If/When China Invades Taiwan...and Who Would Win?

I have gotten a few questions which amount to "what will happen if China invades Taiwan?" and this is my attempt at an answer. It's obviously a lot of guesswork, but I think that it is fair to say that a massive worldwide economic and geopolitical upheaval is likely. Supply chains will be massively disrupted and a deep recession or even Great Depression 2.0 are likely outcomes. If China does manage to take Taiwan, they will probably face a insurgency that I'm sure the US government will be happy to help along, in addition to dealing with massive sanctions.

The second half of the episode is a guest post by the excellent podcast ChinaTalk. The episode talks with Michael O'Hanlon, a senior fellow and director of research at Brookings where specializes in U.S. defense strategy, the use of military force, and American national security policy about:

The limits of scenarios that predict the outcome of a China-Taiwan conflict.

What are intercontinental rail guns?

How sports teams that play each other in the same year can have different outcomes - and what this says about predictability.

Given all this, what’s the point of modelling exercises?

Go subscribe to ChinaTalk if you have not already, it's a great podcast for anyone interested in Chinese-American relations.

Visit the Typhoon Bearing website: typhoonbearing.substack.com

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