Myanmar’s Junta and the 2026 Elections: A Fig Leaf for Legitimacy?

NOTE: This interview was recorded before the 7.7 magnitude earthquake struck Myanmar and Thailand on Friday, March 28. Please see the statement from our guest, Lucas Myers, which follows the episode description below.In this episode of Need to Know, Lucas Myers, Senior Associate for Southeast Asia for the Wilson Center's Indo-Pacific Program discusses Myanmar’s proposed elections, the junta’s dwindling control, and China's role in the crisis. Along with host John Milewski, they analyze whether or not a vote under military rule would be credible. Statement from Lucas Myers:

Midday local time on Friday, March 28th, a 7.7-magnitude earthquake hit Myanmar and Thailand. The epicenter was near Mandalay, the second largest city in the country, and damage extended throughout the country’s central regions. Thailand was also heavily impacted, including Bangkok.

Given the ongoing civil war, human cost could be catastrophic for the people of Myanmar. Casualty numbers are difficult to verify considering the wartime circumstances but could be well into the thousands.

The humanitarian situation in Myanmar was already dire, and the earthquake only adds to a number of crises across the country. These include a widespread risk of famine in parts of the country and a collapsing economy.

Rapid response international aid will be needed, but the Myanmar military junta is likely to attempt to interfere for its own ends. The international community will need to coordinate closely with the resistance actors who now control almost 50% of Myanmar’s territory.