Helm Talks - energy climate infrastructure & more28 Apr 2025

The dark economic clouds revisited

The economic outlook for the UK is bleaker than the government would have us believe. The government's ambition to be the fastest-growing economy in the G7 by 2030 faces significant challenges. Starmer and Reeves blame the Conservatives for the current economic mess, citing a £20–£22 billion gap. They argue that, once constraints are addressed, the government will push towards net zero and build 1.5 million new homes, with growth solving public expenditure problems through increased tax revenue. If only… The IMF predicts 1.1% GDP growth, but even this meagre number overstates the prospects, for three reasons. First, it is flattered by increasing population, with GDP per head lower. Second, borrowing is larger than expected, with a debt-to-GDP ratio already at around 100%, making the cost of debt a significant constraint. Third, the Autumn Budget increased the cost of labour and capital, and savings taxes were increased. More fundamentally, the government's balance sheet is damaged by consuming capital rather than investing in infrastructure. Core infrastructure is not fit for purpose, and building houses and achieving net zero are not the panaceas they are claimed to be. Accounting ruses such as more PFI-type schemes and treating capital maintenance as if it is investment to push stuff off the government’s books do not make the problems go away. True national debt should add all this back, painting a very different and even more unsustainable picture. A fundamental rethink is needed to put the economy on a sustainable consumption and sustainable economic growth path, and thereby reduce the burden on future generations.

Det här avsnittet är hämtat från ett öppet RSS-flöde och publiceras inte av Podme. Det kan innehålla reklam.

Avsnitt(90)

Why can't we build infrastructure in this country?

Politicians have been seeking for decades to put right the infrastructure crisis in this country that is rooted not in a lack of ambition, but in deeper economic and political constraints. Building in...

15 Juni 15min

Crisis? What crisis?

The International Energy Agency describes the current Iran conflict as the “biggest energy crisis in history”. While oil prices have risen sharply, they remain below the real highs of past shocks. How...

27 Maj 14min

Britain's negative-sum society

The concept of a zero-sum game was fashionable in the 1970s. The idea was simple: competing interest groups, and especially unions, would fight for ever-bigger shares of the nation’s cake, and their g...

17 Maj 14min

No such thing as free electricity

There is no such thing as a free lunch, and there is no such thing as “free” electricity. What is true is that there are going to be days in summer when supply exceeds demands and hence the value of e...

24 Apr 11min

Sticky plaster energy policy is falling apart

Another day and another bit of sticky plaster is applied. With the highest industrial energy prices in the developed world, the government is increasing the number of companies that will get a bit off...

20 Apr 15min

Gas prices, gas mistakes and gas policy

The news is very much about gas price shocks, but this is to misunderstand the fundamental difference between temporary shocks and long-term trends. Gas prices spike when major geopolitical events occ...

24 Mars 13min

Britain's industrial energy price crisis

Britain is facing a deep industrial energy price crisis, with many major industries collapsing or shrinking because UK electricity costs are among the highest in the world. Recent closures—from refine...

17 Mars 15min

The energy security gap

The International Energy Agency, at its recent ministerial meeting (Feb 18th/19th), agreed on one top priority: energy security. Hybrid warfare, cyber-attacks and the ease with which modern energy inf...

24 Feb 15min