US Inflation Cools, China Tariff Truce, and UK Jobs Data: PALvatar Market Recap, May 13 2025

Recorded on 18 Aug 2020. The unprecedented nature of everything going on today has made topics such as the viability of fiat currencies, USD reserve status, Bitcoin, monetary/fiscal policy, and precious metals the talk of the town. Everyone is now wondering what these things mean and how they will impact their lives moving forward. No doubt, questions abound. However, by using macroeconomics as a lens, one can begin to understand not just what these seemingly complicated things are, but how their interrelated nature can impact the world around us. Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy recently did an Expert View where she laid out many of her positions on these concepts and how they fit into her strategy. For this segment of Real Vision Live, we’ve invited her back to sit down with Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal, for a macro masterclass where they will dive into these different areas in an attempt to understand where we are, and more importantly, where we may end up. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

10 Jan 20211h 2min

Dan Morehead, CEO and founder of Pantera Capital, joins Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal to discuss the current macro setup and its relationship to crypto as well as why this crypto bull market is different from the last and what the potential benefits could be from incoming regulations. Morehead explains what the focus at Pantera Capital has been over the past several months, including what he expects to outperform in the crypto sector. He also describes how he sees the crypto ecosystem evolving over the next few years and why the entry of Paypal into the crypto space is significant. Key Learnings: With his extensive knowledge of the macro world, Morehead brings a wealth of expertise to the crypto space, and he expounds on what factors may have contributed to the recent surge in crypto interest and value. He describes why Bitcoin will likely continue to do well; however, he elaborates on why he expects other crypto assets to outperform and why Bitcoin might not be able to outperform some smaller assets in the sector. Recorded on December 8, 2020 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

9 Jan 202136min

Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal returns to the Daily Briefing to share with Ash Bennington his updated thesis for the new year. Raoul argues that the prevailing narrative around reflation is a “one-sided bet” (short bonds, short dollars, long commodities, and long equities) that offers little upside, remains vulnerable to the risk of shutdowns, leaves a lasting scar on the labor market that will take years to recover from, and causes a spike in the U.S. dollar, which would serve as a “wrecking ball” for a host of reflation risk assets. Instead, Raoul prefers bonds, a sprinkling of puts on the S&P 500, and of course crypto, namely Bitcoin and Ethereum. Raoul and Ash reflect on the tremendous rally in Bitcoin and discuss how Metcalfe’s law applies to it and Ethereum. They also discuss the implications of the rise in COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospitalizations and how those factors will affect markets and the economy. In the intro, editor Jack Farley reports on the latest jobs numbers and reviews price action in Tesla, gold, and silver. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

8 Jan 202138min

Real Vision managing editors Ed Harrison and Roger Hirst examine the consensus around reflation which has gripped financial markets – a narrative that Roger views as the most unanimous one he’s seen in his entire career. Ed and Roger first define reflation as a pick-up in growth alongside inflation and explore why so many market participants believe it to be a foregone conclusion. They then discuss the rush into small-caps, high yield, and low-quality stocks that has occurred as the confidence in reflation has strengthened. Ed and Roger consider everything from the yield curve to job losses to speculative positioning in copper and cattle, and they look forward to what is on the horizon for markets and the economy. In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin examines why the political unrest in Washington didn’t dent cryptocurrency or the stock market’s ongoing rally Thursday, and she looks ahead at what to expect from the job market in 2021. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

7 Jan 202136min

Michael Howell, managing director at CrossBorder Capital, believes that liquidity is the ultimate force driving global markets. In this interview with Ed Harrison, Howell argues that liquidity, debt, and asset prices are interlocked in a predictable cyclical relationship that he calls "the debt-liquidity spiral." Although - as its name suggests - this cycle results in higher debt levels and risk, it isn't inherently bearish for equities. Together, Howell and Harrison discuss where we are currently in this cycle and why it has him bullish on the Euro, equities, gold, and bitcoin, but bearish on bonds and the Dollar. They also discuss the effects of the U.S. decoupling from China on a handful of assets and why it will likely continue under a Biden administration. . Key Learnings: Howell’s liquidity models have him cautiously bullish on equities — more specifically, his models are indicating that they are nowhere near bubble territory and haven’t been since 2000. His models also point towards a lower Dollar, higher Euro, 2% yields on the U.S. 10-Year in 2021, and gold and bitcoin at $2,500 and $25,000 respectively. Recorded on November 10, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

7 Jan 202148min

In this unique edition of the Real Vision Daily Briefing, managing editor Ed Harrison and senior editor Ash Bennington give a breaking news update on the unprecedented events unfolding in Washington, D.C., whether or not they will have impact on the markets having closed at record high, and if they are reflective of events on the ground or are divorced from political and social reality. Then, Real Vision’s Nick Correa discusses the ADP jobs report and the possibility of a jobless recovery for the U.S. economy. In the main segment, Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy tells Real Vision’s Jack Farley how her reflation thesis has been shaped by recent events such as the Georgia runoff election, the release of the Fed’s FOMC minutes, and the chaos in the nation’s capital. Alden shares her latest trades on EM bank stocks and breaks down various quantitative measures to value Bitcoin. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

7 Jan 202159min

Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes back Tony Greer of TG Macro to share his thoughts on the first rally of the new year. Tony arrives in high spirits as the eye-popping gains of crude oil, iron ore, and nickel authenticate his bullish-commodities thesis. He eyes the agricultural grain commodities such as wheat and corn for entry points and tells Ash why the ISM Manufacturing reading of 60.7 shows him why inflation isn’t just on the horizon but is in fact already here. Ash provides context on Chinese demand for commodities and Saudi Arabia’s unilateral output cut of oil. Lastly, Tony broadens his gaze to the macro picture, declaring that the ultra-dovish policies of the Federal Reserve are creating a “liquidity bonanza” that is rendering commodities an “inflation hedge paradise.” In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin reports on tonight’s two runoff senate elections in Georgia and their potential market impact. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

5 Jan 202136min

Hayman Capital's founder and CIO Kyle Bass welcomes forensic accountant and Behind the Balance Sheet's founder Stephen Clapham to break down the accounting irregularities peppered throughout the regulatory filings of China’s biggest tech companies. Sharing insights from his proprietary research report on Alibaba, Baidu, JD.com, Meituan Dianping, and Tencent, Clapham shines a light on the ways these companies are using loopholes in order to inflate profits, hide liabilities, and mask the capitalization of questionable assets. Bass frames Clapham's findings through the lens of notable balance sheet disasters and downright frauds, and they explore the jurisdictional risk of investing in Chinese companies in general. Lastly, Bass asks Clapham about his latest book, "The Smart Money Method: How to Pick Stocks Like A Hedge Fund Pro". Key Learnings: Hidden risks lurk within corporate balance sheets, even those of the world’s largest tech companies. Stephen Clapham and Kyle Bass show viewers how to spot those risks before they can inflict major damage to your portfolio. Recorded on November 18, 2020 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

5 Jan 202147min