US Inflation Cools, China Tariff Truce, and UK Jobs Data: PALvatar Market Recap, May 13 2025

Harvey Sawikin, co-founder and lead portfolio manager at Firebird Management, a fund dedicated to investing in frontier and emerging market equities in Eastern Europe, joins Real Vision editor/reporter Haley Draznin for a conversation about the development of emerging markets over the past several decades and the sector outlook. Firebird started out as the first Russian portfolio equity fund and has since expanded to include other countries in the region such as Kazakhstan, Georgia, and Romania. Sawikin shares why his investment strategy differs in more mature and developed markets, how a typical investor in emerging markets has evolved, portfolio repositioning amid the Covid-19 pandemic, and the value of travel in investing. . Key learnings: Emerging markets are often a blind spot for investors—finding them requires assessing liquidity risk and geopolitical climate. Dollar strength and weakness is the macro factor that has the biggest impact on emerging markets. The disinflationary environment has led Firebird to reposition its portfolio towards more growth stocks in the Eastern European region and less towards cyclicals. Recorded on December 18, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

27 Dec 202053min

William White, former central banker at the BoE, BoC, and BIS and senior fellow at the CD Howe Institute, has been a thorn in the side of his central banking colleagues for decades, questioning their hubris and pushing hard for a paradigm shift from within. Together with legendary financial commentator Jim Grant of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, White explores the difficulty of paradigm shifts within central banking and the overwhelming historical evidence that this easy money experiment will end badly. White also expresses what he believes to be the core problem with central bankers' analytical framework — namely, that it assumes that the global economic system is "comprehensible, understandable, and controllable" rather than a complex, adaptive system with characteristics that are not present in the models that attempt to decipher it. As well, Grant questions White on his views on Bitcoin, how he personally invests, what he would do if he were running the Federal Reserve, and if there is any possible way out of our current predicament. . Key Learnings: Central Bankers' neglect for history will be their ultimate undoing, and although new, previously unthinkable policies have been enacted recently, it can hardly be considered a paradigm shift but merely a more extreme implementation of the same flawed analytical framework. The outcome of the deflation vs. inflation debate is not cut and dry even to someone as learned as William White, and he himself has for decades implemented a barbell strategy of cash and property as a way to position for this uncertainty. Recorded on November 16, 2020 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

26 Dec 20201h 19min

Rohan Grey, president of Modern Money Network & doctoral fellow at Cornell Law, joins Santiago Velez, co-founder and R&D division lead for Block Digital, to discuss the controversial STABLE Act, the history of private and public monies, and the future of stable coins. Grey gives a detailed history lesson on money and its relationship to government. They talk through the key tenets of the STABLE Act and its implications for the crypto space over all and stable coins more specifically. Grey explains the differences between Central Bank Digital Currencies and E-Money and touches on the importance of privacy for financial transactions. Key Learnings: The government and public monies are strongly connected, and Grey believes that there are major systemic risks presented by assets aiming to disrupt the government's oversight of the issuance of its money with history providing strong evidence of these risks. For those investing in the crypto space, the passing of the STABLE Act may negatively impact certain types of stable coin projects as some may fall under the umbrella of this bill. Higher regulatory burdens may force some crypto projects to shutdown while those who are capable of meeting the higher bar may flourish with regulatory backing. Recorded on December 14, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

24 Dec 20201h 24min

Special Edition of Daily Briefing with Ash Bennington and Ed Harrison. They will answer audience questions, provide an update on what they're seeing in markets this holiday season, and look ahead to the opportunities and macro risks for 2021. Checkout Real Vision's newest podcasts : Ground Floor Consensus : apple podcast link : https://rvtv.io/3ri3RKD Between2Chains: Apple Podcast link : https://rvtv.io/2KAONXO Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

24 Dec 202055min

Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington joins Tony Greer of TG Macro to discuss the new fiscal package from Congress, the macro signals Tony has his eye on, and his outlook for the new year. Tony discusses how the spending package is insufficient, especially for American families, and describes the markets’ reaction as slightly “sell the fact” as made evident by the DXY’s modest but noticeable bounce. After Ash reviews some of the current data for COVID-19 hospitalizations in the U.S., Tony says that markets are still looking past this information and are more focused on the reopening. He also describes the relationship of the dollar and equities as it relates to the Fed’s modus operandi to create inflation with a weaker dollar. Finally, he shares the new opportunity that he sees emerging for U.S. financials, what he’s looking out for in the new year, and why he’s holding onto more dry powder during this holiday season. In the intro, editor Jack Farley covers Ripple's SEC investigation, U.S. bankruptcies, as well as market flow data. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

22 Dec 202027min

In the grand finale to “The Big Picture,” Jason Buck speaks to Chris Cole, founder and CIO of Artemis Capital. Chris is one of the sharpest players in the volatility space and has made his name by playing risks and opportunities that others can’t see. An outspoken critic of the 60/40 equity/bond split, Chris is an advocate of what he calls “the dragon portfolio,” which consists of gold, long volatility, and commodity trend-following in addition to stocks and bonds. Chris gave a glimpse of the dragon portfolio when he spoke with Danielle DiMartino Booth on Real Vision in February 2020. Since then, volatility has exploded, both during the massive sell-off in March as well as in the shocking market melt-up since then. Simply put, the dragon has been unleashed. The twin risks of the left tail (deflationary deleveraging) and right tail (inflationary deleveraging) loom large. As Chris wrote in his 2020 report, "to thrive, we must embody the cosmic duality between the hawk and the serpent." For access to Chris’ 2020 report, “The Allegory of the Hawk and the Serpent: How to Grow and Preserve Wealth for 100 Years,” click here: https://docsend.com/view/taygkbn Recorded on July 27, 2020 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

22 Dec 20201h 13min

Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group, joins Real Vision editor Jack Farley to break down his market outlook as stimulus talks draw to a close and an alarming new strain of COVID-19 spreads throughout the United Kingdom. Boockvar makes his case for why inflation will continue to rise alongside nominal yields in 2021, and he explains why this macro outlook leads him to look favorably upon commodities and value stocks that trade at significantly low price/earnings multiples since he expects multiples to compress across the equity landscape as nominal yields rise. Boockvar gives a strategic update on the state of the Fed's QE programs and argues that the expiration of the Fed's emergency lending programs is not unwelcome and, in fact, is overdue. Lastly, Boockvar shares with Farley several stocks on his radar, such as CVS Health Corp ($CVS) and Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc ($WBA) as well as evaluates their future business prospect. In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin monitors the markets as stimulus relief package passes in the US and a new strain of the coronavirus emerged in England, prompting fresh travel restrictions across Europe. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

21 Dec 202038min

Jim Chanos, president of Kynikos Associates, is one of the most legendary investors of all-time, short seller or otherwise. Even after an incredible bull run that has taken many short sellers out back behind the woodshed to be put down, he's still generating incredible alpha for his investors. In this interview with Mike Green of Logica Capital Advisors, Chanos explains why we are in a golden age of fraud where the market fails to recognize frauds until the last minute. He also highlights the dynamic of growth-starved investors willing to throw money at any company that can demonstrate a large total addressable market (TAM) even if there is no demonstrable chance of profit. He cites business models like Uber and Grubhub as examples of the market's TAMSanity. He also touches on two of his highest conviction shorts, IBM and the commercial real estate sector, with IBM being described as the ultimate example of a COVID loser and commercial real estate being described as a "slow motion train wreck." Key Learnings: Investors wanting to get short must be cautious and manage risk as the market is not pricing in fraud until the last minute. As well, IBM should serve as an example of the types of companies who have failed to innovate and whose death has been accelerated by COVID. The writing is on the wall for commercial real estate and the debt and leverage in the industry can help investors determine the timing of its slow death as obligations will eventually have to be met. Recorded on November 11, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

20 Dec 20201h 28min