US Inflation Cools, China Tariff Truce, and UK Jobs Data: PALvatar Market Recap, May 13 2025

Michael Pettis, senior fellow at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy, and Kyle Bass of Hayman Capital Management are both keenly focused on the complex task of discerning China's economic reality. In this interview, Bass and Pettis attack the important issues of capital flight, China's massive economic inequality, and their domestic debt burden, just to name a few. They both tend to agree on what is most important, but not always the takeaway from the data. It is the nuanced differences in their interpretations of the current state of affairs that had even Kyle Bass remarking at how much he was able to take away from this enlightening and pleasantly civil back and forth. Recorded on October 7, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

15 Nov 202050min

Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine Capital, has evolved his investment style over the years, and although he is still the "bond king", increasingly he has become multi-asset with a focus on getting the macro right. In this interview with Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal, Gundlach explains how he thinks about time frames, position sizing based on asset class, and how his style changes based on whether the market is alpha or beta driven. He also provides his current outlook, arguing that there is not much opportunity in this environment and that the most important thing at the moment is managing risk while patiently waiting for the next big trade. He also touches on timely topics like the potential for a wave of insolvency, why he believes we are in the midst of The Fourth Turning, his skeptical view of bitcoin, and why he is bullish on the dollar in the short term despite his highest conviction macro view being pronounced dollar weakness. Recorded on October 1, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

14 Nov 20201h 13min

Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal, and senior editor, Ash Bennington, discuss the growing shutdown measures in the U.S. even as the S&P 500 makes all-time highs. Looking at declining mobility data, Pal explores how the prospect of a full lockdown in the U.S will depress economic activity as well as perhaps markets. He and Ash then discuss default risk and the stock sales of Pfizer’s CEO before zooming out into macro issues such as how stagnant money velocity affects retirees and how rise in the monetary base could buoy precious metals and bitcoin. In the intro, Jack Farley reviews price action, evaluates the distress of cruise liners, and the looming expiration of the Fed’s emergency lending programs. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

14 Nov 202049min

Real Vision managing editor, Ed Harrison, is joined by editor, Jack Farley, to break down a day of heavy selling across sectors as COVID-19 cases surge to unseen levels. Ed interprets what the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index means and shares his views on how, shutdown or not, the rise of coronavirus will likely depress economic activity. Ed and Jack discuss the flattening of the U.S. Treasury yield and the heavy selling of value equities, with Jack asking Ed whether the rotation into value will resurge or is in fact over. After quickly reviewing price action in volatility markets, Ed and Jack give a sneak peek of the “Paradigm Shift: Investment Ideas for a World in Flux” featuring Jim Chanos, Mike Green, Chamath Palihapitiya, Hugh Hendry, Kyle Bass, Jeremy Grantham, Jim Grant, William White, and many other legends of the investment world. In the intro, Peter Cooper explores the current state of the coronavirus epidemic in the States and reviews the jobless claims report that came out today. For the charts that Ed and Jack discuss, click here: https://rvtv.io/3lrQLY0. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

12 Nov 202035min

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, and managing editor, Ed Harrison, break down the pausing of the rotation out of growth and into value as cases and hospitalization in the U.S. surge to unseen levels. Ash breaks down Bill Ackman’s hedge against investment grade credit, and Ed explores how much central bank liquidity there is on the sidelines waiting to buoy asset prices. The pair also discuss taxes, the outcome of the U.S. elections, as well as Ed’s upcoming interview with Michael Howell. In the intro, editor Jack Farley looks at credit spreads and gives a sneak peek of Real Vision’s upcoming interview series with investing legends such as Jeremy Grantham, Jim Grant, Jim Chanos, Kiril Sokoloff, Sam Zell, Chamath Palihapitiya, Hugh Hendry, Raoul Pal, Kyle Bass, and Russell Napier. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

11 Nov 202040min

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, joins Tony Greer, editor of the Morning Navigator, to examine the latest euphoric episode in markets. Greer discusses how the rotation in the markets demonstrates their renewed focus on a post-pandemic world as the pattern from the last several months of trading is coming undone. He shares his thoughts on the appropriate balance of a political perspective to a market outlook, where inflation will begin to crop up under a Biden administration, and trades he’s paying attention to in energy, tech, commodities, and more. In the intro, Real Vision's Haley Draznin looks at how the markets have reacted to potential vaccine news and how big tech companies across the globe, like Amazon and Alibaba, have become a major focus for regulators. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

11 Nov 202040min

NOTE: THIS DAILY BRIEFING WAS FILMED THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 5. Fielding questions from Real Vision subscribers, senior editor, Ash Bennington, and managing editor, Ed Harrison, analyze how the various outcomes of the 2020 U.S. election will impact markets. Ash and Ed talk about the future of Real Vision content, price action across bitcoin, bonds, and equities, and the likely underperformance of the 60/40 portfolio should the economy enter a cyclical downturn. Ash and Ed analyze how the prospect of divided government (i.e., a Biden presidency coinciding with a Republican senate) will affect earnings potential and fiscal stimulus. They also share their views on potential cabinets picks for the next U.S. President. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

9 Nov 202045min

Howard Lindzon, general partner at Social Leverage, tells Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal why he is bullish on the digital future of business despite acknowledging the harsh economic realities that have emerged since COVID. Lindzon argues that there is a shortage of investible opportunities to capitalize on this trend and this is what we are seeing in stretched tech valuations. He also discusses how he has bet on the democratization of finance with his investments in StockTwits, Robinhood, and eToro and explains why he is still not sold on crypto despite being exposed to the space. Filmed on September 28, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

8 Nov 202048min