Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Barry Eichengreen & Emily Roland

- Matthew Hornbach, Global Head: Macro Strategy at Morgan Stanley- Amrita Sen, Founder and Director of Research at Energy Aspects- Jon Lieber, Head: Research at Eurasia Group- Sheila Kahyaoglu, Managing Director: Equity Research at Jeffries Matthew Hornbach, Global Head: Macro Strategy at Morgan Stanley, joins for a look at inflation and outlook for the US economy. Amrita Sen, Founder and Director of Research at Energy Aspects, talks about the possibility of an oil spike amid uncertainty surrounding the Israel-Iran conflict. Jon Lieber, Head: Research at Eurasia Group, talks about rising geopolitical risks. Sheila Kahyaoglu, Managing Director: Equity Research at Jeffries, joins to discuss the outlook for the airline industry amid defense spending changes.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

25 Juni 20min

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyJune 25th, 2025Featuring:1) Brian Levitt, Global Market Strategist at Invesco, joins to discuss his outlook for equities and the economy in the second half of 2025. Fed Chair Jay Powell told lawmakers that if inflation pressures remain contained, the Fed will cut rates sooner rather than later, but didn't point to a particular meeting, and markets are telling Powell that he will be lowering rates more quickly than he portrayed.2) Fred Neuman, Chief Asia Economist at HSBC, joins for a discussion on how an oil spike could lead to an inflation spike, and why the Israel-Iran conflict's impact on oil is crucial to China and Asian economies. It comes as President Trump announced on social media that China can continue to purchase oil from Iran, potentially undermining years of US sanctions on Iran. The announcement surprised oil traders and officials in Trump's own government, and it is unclear how the US Treasury and State Department will interpret and enforce related sanctions.3) Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director of the Crisis Group's Iran Project, joins to discuss the conflicting views about the whether the US destroyed Iran's nuclear capabilities and whether there is any room for diplomacy in the Israel-Iran conflict. President Trump disputed an intelligence report that found the airstrikes he ordered on Iran had only a limited impact on its nuclear program. The ceasefire between Israel and Iran remains fragile, with a focus on nuclear diplomacy and assessments of how much damage was done to Iran's nuclear program.4) Alicia Levine, Head of Investment Strategy and Equities at BNY, joins to talk about volatility in equities and offers her S&P target. Traders are shifting their focus to the US economy and how trade risks and fiscal pressures could affect corporate earnings and growth, with a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran appearing to hold.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

25 Juni 28min

Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio. In this episode, we feature a conversation with Gary Gensler. Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACFSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

24 Juni 4min

- Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo Management- David Deptula, Geopolitical Intelligence Group Member at Academy Securities and retired Lieutenant General- French Hill, Republican Congressman from Arkansas- Innes McFee, Chief Global Economist at Oxford Economics Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo Management, joins to discuss the potential for a slowing economy in 2025 and possibility of interest rate cuts. David Deptula, Geopolitical Intelligence Group Member at Academy Securities and retired Lieutenant General, discusses the latest on the Israel-Iran conflict. French Hill, Republican Congressman from Arkansas, talks about economic priorities of Congress and how he hopes the Senate will pass the Big Beautiful Bill. Innes McFee, Chief Global Economist at Oxford Economics, talks about the outlook for US and global economies amid changing value in the dollar.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

24 Juni 22min

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyJune 24th, 2025Featuring:1) Gary Gensler, former SEC Chair and Professor of the Practice of Global Economics & Management at MIT, discusses his new text with Simon Johnson and others on the economic consequences of a second Trump administration as well as his experience in government as SEC Chair. It comes as Fed Chair Jay Powell is set to testify before Fed Chair Jay Powell gets set to likely have to explain why he and fellow policymakers seem resolved to continue holding interest rates for the time being, as the president calls for rate cuts.2) Monica DiCenso, Head of Global Investment Opportunities at JPMorgan Private Bank, joins to talk about why she's telling clients to expect the economy to remain resilient and is diversifying global investments. The possible ceasefire between Israel and Iran sparked cautious optimism for a lasting resolution to the conflict, leading to a decrease in oil prices and an increase in stock prices.3) Henrietta Treyz, co-founder at Veda Partners, joins for a discussion on the Big Beautiful Bill and President Trump's economic and political priorities beyond the Middle East. President Trump's $4.2 trillion tax-cut package is nearing a vote in the Senate, but it lacks the necessary support due to disagreements among Republicans over Medicaid cuts, green energy incentives, and other issues. Senate Republicans plan to begin voting on the bill mid-week, with a goal of final passage by the weekend, but meeting this deadline will require quick negotiations on thorny policy issues.4) Emily Kilcrease, former Deputy Assistant US Trade Representative in the first Trump admin, joins to talk about what she believes it would take to effectively remake the economic world order.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

24 Juni 41min

Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio. In this episode, we feature conversations with Richard Haass & Robert D. Kaplan. Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACFSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

23 Juni 4min

- Norman Roule, Senior Adviser at the Center for Strategic & International Studies- Daan Struyven, Head: Commodity Research at Goldman Sachs- Mark Esper, former US Secretary of Defense- Danny Danon, Israel's Ambassador to the United NationsNorman Roule, Senior Adviser at the Center for Strategic & International Studies, discusses the US strikes on Iran and what's next for conflict in the Middle East. Daan Struyven, Head: Commodity Research at Goldman Sachs, offers his outlook for oil and global commodities in the wake of the US' attack on Iran. Mark Esper, former US Secretary of Defense, talks about the strategy aimed at weakening Iran's nuclear capabilities and whether early indications show the US achieved its objectives. Danny Danon, Israel's Ambassador to the United Nations, talks about Israel's position in the Middle East after the US' strike on Iran.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

23 Juni 26min

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyJune 23rd, 2025Featuring:1) Richard Haass, Senior Counselor with Centerview Partners & President Emeritus at Council on Foreign Relations, joins for a discussion on the Israel-Iran conflict. Iran vowed retaliation and continued attacks on Israel following US strikes on its nuclear facilities, fueling fears of a wider war in the Middle East and rattling global markets. The conflict has also raised concerns about oil prices and inflation.2) Robert D. Kaplan, author and foreign affairs expert, joins for a discussion on the Iran-Israel conflict and whether the US involvement stops at this weekend's strikes. The US operation targeted nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, and included 125 aircraft, strikes by Tomahawk missiles, and the use of 14 Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs.3) Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, on why oil has now become central to her 2025 S&P target. US equity futures advanced and crude prices fluctuated on speculation that Iran's response to Washington's bombing of its nuclear sites is unlikely to significantly disrupt oil traffic from the Middle East.4) Steven Englander, Global Head of G10 FX Research and of North America Strategy for Standard Chartered Bank, brings us into the market open and discusses how the Fed's approach to rates could be reshaped by a potential oil and inflation spike. The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose two basis points to 4.39%, and a data release showed private sector activity in the euro area barely grew in June, as erratic US trade policy and geopolitical conflicts leave companies uncertain about what's next.5) Paul Sankey, Lead Analyst at Sankey Research, discusses the path for oil and energy from here. Oil prices initially surged after US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, but later dropped as fears of an immediate supply disruption faded. The oil market remains gripped by an escalating crisis, with risks including a potential disruption to supplies through the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on crude infrastructure in rival suppliers.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

23 Juni 47min