What a War Over Taiwan Might Mean for the U.S.-ROK Alliance | Ep. 7

KEI’s Fellow and Director of Academic Affairs Clint Work joins the show to speak about his recently published report, “Siloed No More: The U.S.-ROK Alliance and a Taiwan Conflict.” Accompanied by KEI’s Director of Communications Arius Derr, the two dive into the report’s examination of sentiments in both South Korea and the United States around a potential conflict over Taiwan, as well as the possibilities of how that conflict would play out.

More about the report: this project was motivated by and builds upon earlier research tracing the evolution and apparent alignment of U.S. and South Korean signaling on Taiwan, wherein the South Korean government adopted a more outspoken position regarding “the importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait” and framed it in increasingly expansive terms—as a regional and global issue yet also directly linked to the peace and stability of the Korean Peninsula. The previous research indicated the U.S.-ROK alliance faced a gap between its topline diplomatic rhetoric on Taiwan and its preparedness to navigate an actual conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan and the attendant risk of a simultaneous conflict on the Korean Peninsula.

This project aimed to go beyond diplomatic rhetoric. Forty-two interviews were conducted from June 2024 to February 2025 in both Washington and Seoul. Most were in-person interviews with some conducted virtually or by written response via email. Through these interviews with U.S. and ROK current and former government officials, think tank experts, and academics—as well as open-source research—this project offers insight on the evolution and state of U.S.-ROK alliance discussions on a Taiwan conflict, key challenges obstructing such discussions, and critical variables or dynamics the alliance would have to navigate in the event of a conflict.

Read the full report here: https://keia.org/publication/siloed-no-more-the-u-s-rok-alliance-and-a-taiwan-conflict/

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