Bill Browder on What's Next for Russia
Re-pricing in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine remains the dominant theme across global financial markets, with energy and food supplies top-of-mind for investors and policymakers alike. West Texas Intermediate crude reached levels last seen in 2008 on reports the U.S. federal government is actively considering a ban on Russian oil imports. Wheat is also trading at decade-and-a-half highs. And European natural gas has surged 79% since the onset of war. Squeezing Vladimir Putin seems the international community’s primary strategy right now. According to Bill Browder, a longtime nemesis of the Russian president, “The only way we can stop Putin is to starve him of resources.” Browder, co-founder and CEO of Hermitage Capital Management and the leader of the Global Magnitsky Justice Campaign, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to address Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and to assess the impact of coordinated international sanctions on Putin’s government, the oligarchs who support him, and the Russian economy. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3ClhVc6 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
8 Mars 202249min
Trading Geopolitical Risk Part 2
Host- Weston Nakamura Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
7 Mars 202233min
My First Million With Our Very Own Raoul Pal
Ever wanted to know more about Raoul’s story? Interested in how he approaches not only his investments but life generally? Curious about what made it possible for him to retire for the first time at 36? In this special crossover episode, Raoul finds himself in the guest seat as My First Million host Shaan Puri probes Raoul’s background, his life philosophy, and the facts behind his first million. Shaan and Raoul also explore Raoul's Bitcoin-versus-ethereum "bet" as well how NFTs are commodifying culture for the first time in history. For more information on My First Million, please visit: https://www.mfmpod.com. Recorded on February 24, 2022. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
6 Mars 202255min
Energy, Food, and War in Eastern Europe
Volatility remains the dominant theme for financial markets, as prices for energy and food commodities continue to rise along with hostilities in Eastern Europe. Russia’s war on Ukraine has made central bankers’ fight against inflation that much more complex. And its broader ramifications multiply seemingly by the hour. Peter Zeihan, a geopolitical strategist and the author of the forthcoming book “The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Civilization,” joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to discuss what is rapidly devolving into the biggest global crisis since World War II. As Zeihan notes, “Russia is often derided as a gas station masquerading as a country.” But this is an oversimplification. In fact, Russia – and its neighbors, including Ukraine – plays a critical role in global agricultural markets. Zeihan discusses fractured trade relationships, energy, agriculture, and what is an increasingly fraught future for the entire world. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3tBW24G Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
5 Mars 202237min
Will Russia's Invasion of Ukraine Raise Inflationary Pressures?
U.S. equity markets were mixed with just over two hours remaining in the trading day, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 Index holding small gains and the Nasdaq Composite and the Russell 2000 Index down nearly 1%. Yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note and the 30-year bond backed up again, as investors continue to seek safety amid the unfolding crisis in Eastern Europe. Crude oil prices slipped some, with West Texas Intermediate down 0.55% to $109.99 and Brent off 0.57% to $112.29. But grains continue to reflect rising pressures on current and future supply, with wheat up more than 7% and corn up nearly 5%. And it doesn’t appear as though Russian President Vladimir Putin is any closer to succumbing to the global sanctions regime that’s targeted the country’s oligarchs and hamstrung the lives of ordinary Russians. Indeed, missile attacks against Ukraine’s major cities are intensifying. Meanwhile, the fed funds futures market is still pricing in five interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, as potential inflationary pressures increase. Michael Gayed, Portfolio Manager at Toroso Investments, and Frances Coppola, who writes and speaks on banking, finance, and economics, join Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to assess the Russia-Ukraine crisis and its broader global impact. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
4 Mars 202233min
When the Promise of a Quarter-Point Rate Hike Is Good News
The war in Eastern Europe has led to a meaningful shift in the market’s perception of what the Federal Open Market Committee will do when it meets in two weeks. Fed fund futures are still pricing in a greater than 80% chance of a rate hike. But the odds of a 50-basis-point boost to the central bank’s benchmark interest rate are now near zero after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, in testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, said he was inclined to propose and support a 25-basis-point move. Meanwhile, the civilian death toll in Ukraine surpassed 2,000, and Russian forces continue to threaten major cities, including Kyiv. Financial markets remain volatile, with U.S. equity indexes surging more than 2%, even as crude oil prices continue to climb. Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to discuss recent price action in the context of his short- and medium-term strategy. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/36WMVUq Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
3 Mars 202234min
"We Cannot Say How the Conflict Will End in the Short Term"
A Russian military convoy continues to bear down on Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital and its most populous city. Its progress has been slow, much like the broader invasion. But news from Eastern Europe continues to roil markets, with the three major U.S. equity indexes all down at least 1.5% two hours ahead of the close of regular trading. Longer-term U.S. Treasury yields are sliding, and the CBOE Volatility Index is spiking. Commodity prices are surging, with West Texas Intermediate crude oil up nearly 9% on the day, Brent crude up nearly 8%, and corn and wheat both up more than 5%. Meanwhile, with the global community’s sanction regime still taking shape, the Russian ruble is now worth less than one cent versus the U.S. dollar, and Russia’s stock market remained closed for another full day. “At this point,” notes Marko Papic, chief strategist at Clocktower Group, “we cannot say how the conflict will end in the short term.” Papic joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake on today’s Daily Briefing to discuss the geopolitical situation. And Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro, is here to talk about how financial markets are reacting to events on the ground. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/35jzRrH Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
2 Mars 202233min
Volatility Reigns as Sanctions Regime Takes Shape
Bond yields retreated and U.S. equity indexes swung from red to green and back again, as the global community continues to respond to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. UK-based BP dumped its 19% stake in Russian oil and gas producer Rosneft, while Switzerland stepped forward from centuries of neutrality to freeze Russian assets held by its banks. And Singapore has imposed its own sanctions on Russia, a rare move by the southeast Asian country. Officials elsewhere have taken steps to cut off Russia’s access to its estimated $630 billion of foreign reserves. The Russian ruble has collapsed, while Russia’s central bank more than doubled its benchmark interest rate to 20% and closed the country’s stock market on Monday. Russian bonds tumbled, and investors braced for the possibility that Western sanctions could push Russia to default for the first time since 1998. Jacob Shapiro, Director of Geopolitical Analysis at Cognitive Investments, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to assess the geopolitical situation. And Harry Melandri, Advisor at MI2 Partners, is here to appraise markets’ reaction in today’s edition of the Daily Briefing. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3poBBa6 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
1 Mars 202238min
