SI352: Trend Systems Under Strain ft. Nick Baltas

Today, we're diving deep into the world of commodities with Calculo Capital, a short-term quantitative hedge fund based in Denmark. Our guests, Philip Engel Carlsson and Ole Hansen, share their insights on how they navigate the fast-paced commodity markets using machine learning techniques. We explore how their focus on liquid markets and short holding periods allows them to capitalize on price movements driven by supply and demand imbalances. The conversation also touches on the current trends in commodities, like the rising demand for precious metals and the impact of geopolitical events. Join us as we uncover the strategies behind Calculo's approach and what sets them apart in the investment landscape.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Linkedin.Follow Ole on LinkedIn.Follow Philip on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:08 - Introduction to Calculo Capital03:53 - The state of today's commodity markets10:35 - Commodity performance numbers11:34 - What is driving the increased performance in the precious metal markets?15:35 - How the commodity performance impacts the way Calculo Capital is trading16:48 - Why do Calculo Capital only focus on commodity...

23 Apr 42min

In this episode, we explore the current market dynamics and discuss Katy Kaminski's latest research paper on crisis and correction alpha, which provides insights into how CTA strategies are navigating turbulent times. We also touch on the importance of understanding how trends shift and the implications for various asset classes. From examining the impact of correlation and volatility in risk management to discussing the nuances of different trading speeds, we aim to equip you with a clearer perspective on what to expect from these time tested strategies, which forms part of the latest wave of Portable Alpha offerings. Join us, as we find out how you can uncover opportunities in these challenging market conditions.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Katy on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:01:07 - What has caught our attention recently?06:58 - Industry performance update08:33 - What are the most interesting markets according to Kaminski?14:06 - Industry performance numbers15:31 - Crisis or correction?22:04 - A historical perspective - we have been here before..28:50 - Crisis alpha or Chaos alpha?33:01 - Why are managers' performance so different this time?39:20 - It's all about the long game41:42 - The trend following trading speed is shifting50:18 - Should markets be treated differently in terms of speed?52:18 - Advice for building strong trend...

19 Apr 1h 10min

Discover how to navigate the complexities of personal and professional decisions through the lens of behavioral economics. Kevin Coldiron speaks with Daryl Fairweather, Chief Economist at Redfin and author of the book "Hate the Game," who shares insights on using economic principles to tackle everyday challenges, from negotiating salaries to understanding workplace dynamics. They explore the importance of empathy and perspective-taking in decision-making, emphasizing that understanding the rules of the economic game can empower individuals to succeed despite systemic inequalities. Fairweather discusses her own journey in economics and the lessons learned from her experiences, including the value of strategic thinking in competitive environments. This conversation is not only enlightening but also serves as a practical guide for anyone looking to improve their decision-making skills and career trajectory.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Daryl on X and read her book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:26 - Introduction to Daryl Fairweather07:30 - Choosing games and assessing probabilities13:14 - How do you know if your boss is a jerk?14:03 - Why it is important to be aware of how you present...

16 Apr 52min

Together with Yoav Git, we’ll explore how market conditions are shifting and what that means for investors, especially in light of recent bond market movements. It’s been a wild ride lately, with unexpected changes in correlations between stocks and bonds, and we’re here to break it all down. We’ll also touch on the implications for trend-following strategies and how they can adapt in these turbulent times. So, whether you’re a seasoned investor or just curious, hang tight as we unravel these complex topics together!-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:01:21 - What has caught our attention recently?04:39 - Are there more to the Trump Tariffs than meets the eyes?09:53 - What is actually a safe haven asset today?11:50 - Industry performance update15:15 - Git's trend following perspective on fixed income17:25 - Trend following performance numbers21:39 - What you can expect from trend following during a crisis period30:31 - What we can learn from the current economic events34:27 - Key insights to achieving diversification40:40 - Achieving better performance through trend predictors45:01 - How CTAs interpret diversification in a unique way50:03 - Are we experiencing more dispersion today than previously?57:57 - The symbiotic relation between time and price in a trend following...

12 Apr 1h 11min

Today, we’re diving into the world of portable alpha and how it can really shake up your investment game. Alan Dunne and I are chatting with Razvan Remsing from Aspect Capital, who shares that this concept isn’t new but is gaining traction again as allocators look for ways to make their portfolios work harder. With everything going on in the markets, it’s essential to think about how different strategies can fit together, especially in a world where traditional asset allocations might not cut it anymore. We’ll explore the benefits of a multi-asset approach and how CTAs can play a crucial role in managing risk while seeking out returns.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Razvan on LinkedIn.Find out more about DUNN CapitalEpisode Timestamps:01:28 - Introduction to Razvan Remsing and Aspect Capital06:50 - A critical time for portable alpha products18:25 - The evolution of the sophistication of investors25:44 - Why trend following is the magic sauce to your portfolio33:07 - Are investors sleeping on portable alpha strategies?37:07 - The state of the CTA space from a global macro perspective45:14 - The total portfolio approach52:48 - Razvan's perspective on replication strategies58:14 - Key advice for working with...

9 Apr 1h 9min

Together with Richard Brennan, we’ll explore how current market uncertainties are shaping investor sentiment and prompting a massive shift in how we think about financial systems. As we navigate through some heavy topics, we also touch on the importance of maintaining a disciplined approach in a world where noise can easily drown out the signals. Expect insights on the evolving landscape of trading, where we emphasize the necessity of aligning with processes rather than predictions. Join us as we unpack these ideas and their implications for both our trading philosophy and our understanding of the market dynamics at play.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:02:24 - What has caught our attention recently?12:58 - The damage of leveraged ETF products15:38 - Reflecting on the trend following performance of Q125:18 - Industry performance numbers26:42 - Super determinism - how it impacts our trading41:59 - The relationship between science, trend following and the universe55:36 - Understanding complex adaptive systems as a trend follower01:13:36 - What is up for next week?Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I...

5 Apr 1h 15min

In the premiere of U Got Options, Cem Karsan is joined by Mike Green for an unfiltered, high-conviction conversation straight from the floor of the CBOE. Together, they dive deep into the explosive growth of 0DTE options - now driving over 60% of S&P volume - and unpack how this shift is quietly rewiring market reflexivity, volatility dynamics, and the path of dispersion. With stories from the pits and sharp macro takeaways, this episode sets the tone for a series that goes beyond the headlines to decode the real forces shaping today’s markets. Raw. Insightful. Essential.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:04 - Introduction to Mike Green07:39 - How and why 0DTE options have changed the investing landscape17:23 - Implied volatility is changing - what does it mean for investors?25:18 - How periods of relative stability impact investor behaviour31:03 - The unwind of passives - is the system under pressure?39:51 - What are prices actually telling us?43:31 - Why this cycle might be different48:52 - What makes a long lasting investor?54:17 - A deep dive into passive flows57:18 - Individualism in investing - are we becoming too separated?Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know...

2 Apr 1h 4min

Alan Dunne and Mark Rzepczynski tackle the current market vibes, focusing on how factors like the 200-day moving average can shift market sentiment and affect portfolio strategies. As they navigate through the choppy waters of market performance, they discuss the importance of understanding uncertainty versus risk and how it impacts decision-making for both individual investors and managers alike. There’s also an exploration of how curiosity plays a crucial role for fund managers in adapting to ever-changing market dynamics. Join us for an insightful discussion on making sense of today's investment landscape.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:04 - What has caught our attention recently?04:09 - Industry performance update06:22 - How markets and managers respond to tariffs09:39 - Are we talking ourselves into a recession?12:55 - Why the distinction between risk and uncertainty is important16:26 - What is price telling us about market noise?24:06 - How quant traders should approach uncertainty28:59 - How the current economic landscape shapes systematic trading31:52 - Feedback loops, reaction functions and monetary policy36:05 - Advice for dealing with uncertainty as an investor41:36 - Curiosity as a characteristic in fund...

29 Mars 1h 1min