Trump Hammers Iran. What Comes Next?

Chris, Zack, and Melanie get together to discuss the very rapidly moving events in the Middle East following the execution of Operation Midnight Hammer. Why did President Trump decide to move from negotiating with Iran to ordering the strikes on the country's nuclear facilities? Is this a case of alliance entrapment, or is it an example of an "America First" foreign policy? Is this the beginning of another long slog for America in the Middle East? Even though he has Republican majorities in the House and Senate, President Trump did not seek congressional authorization for the mission. Was he constitutionally required to do so? What are the most likely near- and medium-term outcomes of the American and Israeli strikes?

There are grievances for Democrats who didn't object to the unauthorized exercise of war powers by Presidents Obama and Biden but are suddenly relocating their constitutional scruples with a Republican now at the helm, a video message on nuclear weapons by DNI Tulsi Gabbard that may serve to undermine US extended deterrence, and the increasing violence against government officials and lack of security for them.

Attas go to the Institute for Global Affairs for new analysis of several countries' perceptions of national security threats and priorities, to the United States Armed Forces for the brilliantly executed Operation Midnight Hammer, and to the United States Studies Centre for a fantastic workshop on integrated air and missile defense.

Show Links:

"Video: Kaine Speaks on Senate Floor Regarding His War Powers Resolution to Prevent War with Iran," June 17, 2025

Eloise Cassier, Jonathan Guyer, Lucas Robinson, Ransom Miller, "2025 International Public Opinion Survey," Institute for Global Affairs, June 12, 2052

Evan Cooper, Christopher Preble, Alessandro Perri, "Restraint Towards Iran Serves US Interests," Stimson Center, June 18, 2025

Alice Hunt Friend, Melanie Marlowe, Christopher Preble, "Debating the AUMFs," Net Assessment, February 6, 2020

Patrick Kingsley, Adam Rasgon, Ronen Bergman, Natan Odenheimer, Julian E. Barnes, "Will Israel's Interceptors Outlast Iran's Missiles? The Answer May Shape the War," New York Times, June 19, 2025.

Jonathan Swan, Maggie Haberman, Mark Mazzetti, Ronen Bergman, "How Trump Shifted on Iran Under Pressure from Israel," New York Times, June 17, 2025.

Darya Dolzikova and Matthew Savill, "Operation Rising Lion: The First 72 Hours," Royal United Services Institute, June 16, 2025.

Joint Resolution to direct the removal of United States Armed Forces from hostilities against the Islamic Republic of Iran that have not been authorized by Congress, June 2025.

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