US-Canada Trade Hopes, Weak German Retail Data, and UK Income Squeeze: PALvatar Market Recap, June 30 2025

Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal is joined by senior editor Ash Bennington to discuss the current state of different asset classes at this unique juncture. Raoul shares his view on the dollar, precious metals, and bitcoin. He also provides a strategic update on his unfolding thesis. Raoul guides viewers from the hope event into the insolvency phase as high-frequency data show slowdowns in economic activity. Raoul and Ash discuss why they think bitcoin is a favorable trade, and they explore why buying calls on the VIX and puts on the S&P 500 could ballast a gold-heavy portfolio. In the intro, Jack Farley discusses today's Employment Situation Report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

7 Aug 202027min

Senior editor Ash Bennington speaks to David Bahnsen, founder and managing partner of The Bahnsen Group, about the economics of re-opening and the state of the U.S. equity markets. Bahnsen weighs the risks and rewards of reopening the U.S. economy during the ongoing pandemic, using the Swedish "no-lockdown" model as an example. Bahnsen and Bennington also discuss the methodology of calculating GDP change as well as the widening chasm between the S&P 500 and the drastic economy contraction. Bahnsen explains this bifurcation by noting that the GDP looks backward while the stock market looks forward. In the intro, Jack Farley reviews the latest initial claims data and gives a strategic overview of the dramatic price action in the Turkish Lira. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

6 Aug 202043min

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, joins managing editor, Ed Harrison, to discuss some of the latest data coming out, revealing the health of the US economy. They go over the July ADP Nonfarm Payroll number, what the disappointing results say about where the economy stands, and why the pandemic really is something to seriously consider as a market driver. They also talk about the uptick of coronavirus cases globally, the Swedish outcome, and how the world would get closer to a new normal. They wrap up their discussion by exploring bifurcation, the divide between the real economy and the financial economy, and when that reality becomes important to markets as well as the bifurcation between the market winners and losers during the pandemic. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

5 Aug 202037min

Senior editor Ash Bennington is joined by Mike "Mish" Shedlock of TheStreet.com to discuss gold and the looming fiscal cliff. Shedlock analyzes the purported "short squeeze" on gold, shining a light on the various players in the future as well as physical markets for gold during its ascendant rally. Bennington and Shedlock then analyze the dysfunction in Washington and gyrating asset markets through the lens of expiring unemployment benefits. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

4 Aug 202037min

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, joins managing editor, Ed Harrison, to reckon with the idea of whether a COVID-19 vaccine will be the “medical bailout” everyone is staking their hopes on. Ash and Ed give an overview of where many major nations are currently in their battle against the pandemic and consider if this new normal is truly sustainable in the long-term. They also discuss the continued move toward a virtual world, how this is an omen of absolute collapse in certain industries, and how the pandemic has become a politically charged subject in the midst of a US election cycle. In the intro, Nick Correa shares some of the data from the Household Pulse Survey, revealing the ways fiscal stimulus has made up a portion of aggregate spending for American consumers. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

3 Aug 202033min

The neoliberal model of free trade, open borders, and liberalized capital flows is under assault. Traditional economic models with rational agents and efficient markets don't accord with reality, and people are starting to notice. Even recent advances in behavioral economics have failed to capture this disconnect. Mark Blyth, William R. Rhodes Professor of International Economics at Brown University, and Eric Lonergan, macro hedge fund manager at M&G Investments, explore and seek to resolve these conflicts in their new book, "Angrynomics." Blyth and Lonergan examine how the outsourcing of economic management to grey-suited bureaucrats is fomenting a populist backlash that is redrawing political battle lines and molding the destiny of different asset classes in ways few fully grasp. They analyze the recent largesse of central banks as a sort of asymmetric put-option which rewards those who hold assets and punishes those who don't. Blyth and Lonergan also explore potential solutions, which include dual interest rates, citizens' wealth fund, and - yes - even helicopter money. Sponsor Link - Keep Coming Back : http://keepcomingbackpodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

2 Aug 202054min

David Andolfatto, economist and senior vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, joins Pedro da Costa, senior reporter at Market News International, to give a peek behind the curtain into the Fed’s monetary policy at this unique market juncture. Andolfatto analyzes the most recent economic data and estimates that we are headed towards a "W-shaped" recovery. He then describes the remaining tools the Fed still has at its disposal. Da Costa and Andolfatto also analyze the pandemic as an accelerant of secular trends, such as working from home and rapid adoption of technology, as well of the lasting impacts of this acceleration. They also explore helicopter money, the commoditization of consumer loans, as well as the looming threat of inflation. Sponsor Link - Keep Coming Back : http://keepcomingbackpodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

1 Aug 202054min

Senior editor Ash Bennington hosts Real Vision favorite Mike Green of Logica Capital Advisors. Mike Green gives a strategic update on the markets, and, through the lens of his renowned critique of passive investing, analyzes flow data on ETFs and mutual funds to conclude that the markets could be due for some turmoil in the coming months. Green and Bennington also discuss today’s interview with Green and Rob Arnott, one of the world’s leading quantitative investors. Green also shares his views on "volmaggedon" and the similarities between short-vol and bonds. In the intro, Jack reviews recent FAANG earnings and gives a preview of Jason Buck’s three-part “Ahead of the Curve,” a deep-dive into volatility featuring interviews with Chris Cole, Jerry Haworth, and Bastian Bolesta. Sponsor Link - Keep Coming Back : http://keepcomingbackpodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

31 Juli 202039min