Tariff gambit shifts to August. Then what?

Tariff gambit shifts to August. Then what?

President Donald Trump this week delayed the planned 9 July tariff hikes on US imports, notifying 22 countries that rates could rise as much as 50% on 1 August.

The White House had paused these measures for 90 days to pursue trade deals, but since Trump’s so-called Liberation Day announcement on 2 April, only three agreements have been reached.

ING’s Inga Fechner says the new deadline, which Trump has described as firm, but not 100% firm, prolongs the uncertainty for business and consumers around the world. James Knightley says this is weighing on US economic growth - with GDP forecasts for 2025 markedly lower than at the start of the year.

For now at least, markets are taking the news in stride, having recovered from the extreme volatility seen in April. But Padhraic Garvey says tariff-induced inflation and worries about fiscal sustainability present a difficult backdrop for US Treasuries.

In this week’s THINK aloud, a replay of our live webinar, we look at the future of so-called reciprocal tariffs, potential sector-specific tariffs, the legal uncertainties ahead, the threat of retaliation and the broader impact on the global economy and financial markets.

Avsnitt(123)

The long and winding road to rate hikes

The long and winding road to rate hikes

Hawks are growing louder at the US Federal Reserve. But with interest rate hikes still likely to be years away, the dollar is taking recent taper talk in stride. In this podcast, ING's Global Head of Markets Chris Turner looks at how the monetary policy debate is shifting both inside and outside the US and how global currency markets are responding. Plus, a little something on Bitcoin...

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Tense times in world trade

Tense times in world trade

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The economic impact of India's devastating second wave

The economic impact of India's devastating second wave

India is in the grip of a particularly cruel second wave that is overwhelming hospitals and testing the endurance of a nation. In this podcast, ING's Prakash Sakpal looks at the latest developments in the pandemic and whether India's economy and markets can weather the storm.

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Why copper is the new black gold

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Ambitious new targets for cutting carbon emissions and bold spending plans have fuelled optimism about the green revolution and helped to power a rally in the raw materials that will underpin the transition. In this podcast, Warren Patterson looks at which metals will benefit the most and whether rising investment in green infrastructure could herald a supercycle for commodities.

23 Apr 202113min

Covid's East-West divide

Covid's East-West divide

In Asia, second and third waves of the coronavirus are raging in some countries, with India reporting more than 100,000 new cases a day over the past week. Yet the region overall has coped better with the crisis than its peers in the West and the IMF this week raised its forecast for the Asia-Pacific economy in 2021. In this podcast, ING's Rob Carnell explains why the pandemic has been more contained and what it means for the economy and markets this year.

15 Apr 202119min

Inequality threatens European cohesion

Inequality threatens European cohesion

Far from being the 'Great Equaliser,' Covid-19 has magnified socio-economic differences across Europe, exposing fault lines both between and within countries. In this podcast, ING's Julien Manceaux and Franziska Biel discuss their latest research on rising inequality in the labour market, which they say poses a threat to European cohesion.

31 Mars 202111min

Europe's third wave woes

Europe's third wave woes

The European Commission is calling for tougher controls on vaccine exports, as the bloc struggles with a third wave of the virus and criticism over its handling of the vaccine rollout. The vaccination programme has been hindered by a slower authorisation process, delayed deliveries and suspensions over fears of possible side effects. In this podcast, ING’s Carsten Brzeski looks at how rising infections, fresh lockdowns and a sluggish pace of vaccination are likely to impact the region's economic recovery.

24 Mars 202114min

Money for Nothing

Money for Nothing

President Joe Biden says his $1.9 trillion pandemic rescue plan, for the first time, prioritises working- and middle-class Americans. But US household wealth has surged throughout the pandemic, with increases in savings spread more broadly across the income spectrum compared to Europe, as ING's James Knightley explains in this podcast.

18 Mars 202111min

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