Tariff gambit shifts to August. Then what?

Tariff gambit shifts to August. Then what?

President Donald Trump this week delayed the planned 9 July tariff hikes on US imports, notifying 22 countries that rates could rise as much as 50% on 1 August.

The White House had paused these measures for 90 days to pursue trade deals, but since Trump’s so-called Liberation Day announcement on 2 April, only three agreements have been reached.

ING’s Inga Fechner says the new deadline, which Trump has described as firm, but not 100% firm, prolongs the uncertainty for business and consumers around the world. James Knightley says this is weighing on US economic growth - with GDP forecasts for 2025 markedly lower than at the start of the year.

For now at least, markets are taking the news in stride, having recovered from the extreme volatility seen in April. But Padhraic Garvey says tariff-induced inflation and worries about fiscal sustainability present a difficult backdrop for US Treasuries.

In this week’s THINK aloud, a replay of our live webinar, we look at the future of so-called reciprocal tariffs, potential sector-specific tariffs, the legal uncertainties ahead, the threat of retaliation and the broader impact on the global economy and financial markets.

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COP26: 'Pitifully inadequate' or 'truly historic'?

COP26: 'Pitifully inadequate' or 'truly historic'?

It's fair to say the COP26 climate agreement in Glasgow has received a mixed response. While UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson hailed the deal as "truly historic" and a "game changer" for the planet, climate activists have called it an abject failure, with former Extinction Rebellion spokesperson Rupert Read describing the outcome as "stunningly, pitifully, entirely inadequate". In this podcast, ING's Samuel Abettan and Coco Zhang say the truth lies somewhere in between.

16 Nov 202112min

A time to taper

A time to taper

To everything there is a season. And for the US Federal Reserve, this is a time to taper. But how significant is the move, when will interest rates rise, and are markets pricing this correctly? In this podcast, ING's Chief International Economist James Knightley provides some answers.

4 Nov 202113min

The UK's twin tightening gamble

The UK's twin tightening gamble

Chancellor Rishi Sunak says the UK economy is recovering faster than its major competitors and public finances are stabilising. Economic growth for this year has been revised up to 6.5% from 4% in March. But taxes are going up, too, with the tax burden set to rise to the highest level in 70 years. At the same time, markets expect the Bank of England to embark on a series of interest rate hikes, starting next week. With signs that the economy may be starting to lose momentum though, is it too much too soon? ING's Developed Markets Economist James Smith takes a look.

28 Okt 202117min

What the Fed taper means for global FX markets

What the Fed taper means for global FX markets

Financial markets have brushed off the Federal Reserve's hawkish shift, as well as a liquidity crisis at Chinese property developer, Evergrande. In this podcast, ING's Global Head of Markets, Chris Turner, explains why and what it means for global currencies.

23 Sep 20219min

What Europe's inflation angst means for bonds

What Europe's inflation angst means for bonds

Inflation risks are rising in Europe. But will the region's bond markets take note? European Central Bank member Isabel Schnabel said in a speech this week that while much of the recent rise in prices is transitory, the mood in financial markets is changing and there are growing signs that supply disruptions and commodity shortages may be more prolonged than first thought. In this podcast, ING's Antoine Bouvet shares his thoughts.

16 Sep 202112min

The cost and credibility of Asia's climate goals

The cost and credibility of Asia's climate goals

Asia emits half the world's carbon dioxide. But ahead of the COP26 climate change talks in November, only a handful of Asian countries have made firm commitments to achieving a net-zero carbon future. And getting there will be a monumental challenge. In this podcast, ING's Rob Carnell explains why.

10 Sep 202117min

What China's sweeping socialist reforms mean for the economy

What China's sweeping socialist reforms mean for the economy

China cracked down on the online gaming industry this week, the latest in a series of policies aimed at strengthening the public sector and reining in private enterprise. But the reforms could bring short-term economic pain at a time when China is already struggling with the Covid pandemic, chip shortages and widespread flooding, as ING's Iris Pang explains in this podcast.

2 Sep 202111min

What France's health pass really means for the economy

What France's health pass really means for the economy

France's Covid health pass will be extended next week to a wider range of public venues including cafes and restaurants, as the government doubles down on efforts to contain a fourth wave of infections. In this podcast, ING's Samuel Abettan looks at the economic implications of the new measures and what they could mean for French President Emmanuel Macron.

6 Aug 202113min

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