Trump's Tariffs, Crypto Surge, and China’s Trade Data: PALvatar Market Recap, July 14 2025

Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal is joined by senior editor Ash Bennington to reflect on weakness in the banking sector and the odd flatness that has characterized the market for the past month. Raoul gives a taste of “Afterhours with Raoul,” in which he goes over how to build a macro framework and size position. Raoul and Ash also explore whether the Fed is suppressing volatility and take a look at CLOs through the lens of the most recent episode of Ahead of the Curve. In the intro, Jack examines Netflix’s plunge and the 30-year mortgage rate reaching an all-time low. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

17 Juli 202037min

Senior editor Ash Bennington joins managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss the latest jobless claims numbers and its particular significance this week. They start off by discussing Ed’s latest interview with Robert P. Murphy and Austrian economics. They then distinguish the difference between non-seasonally adjusted data and seasonally adjusted data and why that’s critical to understand the news coverage of this week’s jobless numbers. Ed and Ash end their discussion on Bank of America’s earnings, why several major US banks have had mixed results this week, and what it says about the embedded inequalities in the system. In the intro, Peter Cooper discusses California Resources and why their bankruptcy is a foreshadowing for companies who are in trouble and are tapping into credit markets to carry them through the pandemic. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

16 Juli 202031min

In these unprecedented times of economic stress, the mainstream playbook has been tossed out the window as fiscal and monetary authorities continue to throw everything but the kitchen sink at the problem of synchronized global economic downturn. In this interview with Ed Harrison, heterodox economist Steve Keen argues that, although some of these policies are headed in the right direction, many are completely missing the core issue – ungodly levels of private sector debt. Together, Keen and Harrison discuss common misconceptions about private debt, MMT, and the circumstances where ballooning public debt led to hyperinflation. They also break down Keen's argument that the exogenous nature of the COVID crisis might improve the palatability of a much-needed private debt jubilee. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

16 Juli 20201h 4min

Senior editor Ash Bennington joins managing editor Roger Hirst to discuss the latest developments in markets and macro. Bennington and Hirst consider the divergence of large-cap stock indexes and small-cap stock indexes, the DXY falling with the dollar weakening, and how the momentum of US equity markets is slowing due to Fed balance sheet tightening. They also dive into banking and explain why the recent earnings reports for some of the US’s large banks reveal the bifurcation of the real economy and financial markets. In the intro, Peter Cooper talks about Goldman Sachs’ 2020 Q2 earnings and explains why it exceeded expectations by a wide margin. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

15 Juli 202032min

Senior editor Ash Bennington joins managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss Q2 earnings for banks such as JPMorgan and Wells Fargo and use it as a barometer to talk about market cycles. Ash and Ed consider how the abysmal results in financials can cloud our understanding of where markets are at in the cycle. They also break down the sector weightings in the S&P 500, examining how severely underrepresented certain industries are and how that is distorting equity market performance. They also ponder the ways in which the system is currently “rigged,” the sorts of inequities that arise out of it, and how the pandemic is exposing it all. In the intro, Peter Cooper discusses the Q2 earnings for JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo, and analyzes how effective the Payroll Protection Program has been in supporting small businesses in the US. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

14 Juli 202037min

Senior editor Ash Bennington hosts Ed Harrison for a conversation about life and markets during coronavirus. Using Tesla as a jumping off point, they take an existentialist turn and explore what might bring people to speculate on a stock that, by all traditional metrics, is extremely overvalued. Ed proffers that people who take a gamble on Tesla and other retail favorites do so out of a sense of desperation in order to feel a sense of control, at a time when they feel powerless. Ash provides additional color on Ed’s theory by analyzing the impact of fiscal stimulus. Ed and Ash also they frame their thinking through today’s interview with Mark Blyth and Eric Lonergan. In the intro, Jack Farley explores the coming “fiscal cliff” in the U.S., and puts Tesla’s extreme price action in context. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

13 Juli 202032min

Professor Richard Werner joins Hugh Hendry, founder and former CIO of Eclectica Asset Management, for a deep-dive into the world of central banking. They explore the process of credit creation and examine the fundamental role it plays in inflating asset bubbles, the popping of which can wreck whole economies but can be very good for central bankers. They analyze the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) remarkable record of credit expansion, including its use of lending quotas, through the lens of Werner’' renowned book, "Princes of the Yen," which was a number one bestseller in Japan. They also look at the ongoing efforts of the Fed and the European Central Bank (ECB) to provide liquidity during this unprecedented global crisis at all costs, particularly debt monetization and quantitative easing (a term Werner himself coined), which Werner suggests could lead to a widespread bank nationalization – or a "Sovietization" of the banking sector, as he says. Werner argues that the ECB is undemocratic and that it bears a closer similarity to the Reichsbank (1876 – 1945) than it does to the Bundesbank (1957-present). Hendry and Werner conclude their lengthy discussion by looking forward: they scrutinize the current and future monarchs of the global monetary order, who are no longer princes but who may be on their way to becoming kings. Hugh Hendry can be found on Twitter at @hendry_hugh and on Instagram at hughhendryofficial. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

12 Juli 20201h 43min

By both surprise and necessity, Modern Monetary Theory is here at our doorstep. And with neither major party remaining as the party of 'fiscal responsibility', it seems there is little standing in the way of MMT becoming the premise for US government spending initiatives. That’s why it is more important than ever to understand the thinking behind MMT and the common misconceptions surrounding it -- and to prepare your portfolio for its increased acceptance by politicians who view it as an invitation to spend. In this interview with Marshall Auerback of the Levy Economics Institute, Stephanie Kelton breaks down the arguments put forward in her new book, "The Deficit Myth: Modern Monetary Theory and the Birth of the People's Economy". Together they discuss why MMT does not give governments carte blanche to spend indiscriminately. Kelton also articulates why comparing government debts to private debts is flawed. She explores the varying gradations of monetary sovereignty as it relates to constraints on countries potentially using MMT as an economic framework. Finally, Kelton touches on the 'job guarantee vs. UBI' debate and much more in this interview that is sure to be a learning experience for MMT skeptics and believers alike. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

11 Juli 20201h 3min