Oil and Defense Higher; Newmont Safe Haven; Adobe Tumbles

On this episode of Stock Movers:
- Exxon (XOM) shares are higher this morning as Israel strikes Iran. Oil prices surged double digits after Israel carried out strikes against Iran, raising fears of a wider war in the region. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil chokepoint, is a key concern, with the potential for Tehran to retaliate and block the strait, and OPEC+ spare capacity potentially being challenged in such a scenario.
- RTX Corp. (RTX) is higher this morning along with other defense stocks on the S&P as geopolitical tensions rise over Israel's strikes on Iran. It launched airstrikes against Iran’s nuclear program and ballistic-missile sites renewed a standoff between two adversaries that risks spiraling into a wider conflict. While the reaction was strongest in crude oil, other pockets of the market suggested that investors are watching how long the tensions will last and whether the situation escalates.
- Newmont Corp. (NEM) shares are higher this morning as gold's risk premium is lifted by Israel's attack on Iran. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, Israel's attack on Iran could trigger a further jump in gold's risk premium above fair value of $100-$150 an ounce, pushing the metal beyond $3,600. Gold is expensive vs. almost every other financial yardstick and appears overvalued by $200-$700 an ounce vs. our three regression models, yet it's likely to remain a lead indicator.
- Adobe (ADBE) shares are down in premarket trading on Friday, after the maker of software for creative-arts professionals reported second-quarter results that beat expectations. While it also raised its full-year forecast for some metrics, it affirmed its full-year growth forecast for annualized recurring revenue for its digital media business. Analysts said the results won’t quiet concerns over Adobe’s AI business or the impact of competition from other AI services.

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