Could Reform's Scottish surge provoke indyref2?
Coffee House Shots30 Juli 2025

Could Reform's Scottish surge provoke indyref2?

Scotland's First Minister John Swinney unveiled his strategy for pursuing a second independence referendum this week, arguing that an SNP majority at next year's Holyrood elections is the only way to guarantee it. This is seen as an attempt to put Scottish independence back on the table as well as combat the rising popularity of Reform.


Pollster Mark Diffley of Diffley Partnership joins Lucy Dunn to unpack the SNP's independence strategy. Mark points out that while Reform are consistently outperforming expectations, their support still primarily comes from ex-Conservatives. This, plus the unpopularity of the current UK Labour government, could provide the SNP with an opening to exploit and shore up nationalist support. Could next year's Holyrood election be the most consequential election of the devolution era so far?


Produced by Patrick Gibbons and Natasha Feroze.

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