575: Ex McKinsey Expert on War Games, John Horn: How to Read Your Competitors (Strategy Skills classics)

575: Ex McKinsey Expert on War Games, John Horn: How to Read Your Competitors (Strategy Skills classics)

John Horn, professor of economics at Washington University's Olin Business School and former McKinsey strategist, shares a disciplined framework for understanding competitive behavior by applying game theory and structured simulations. In this episode, he explains how companies can elevate competitor analysis from basic intelligence gathering to actionable strategic insight.

Horn begins by debunking the common misconception that many competitors behave irrationally. As he puts it:

“Every single time a client said the competitor is irrational, I could ask them... two, three questions which would explain... why the company was being rational in what they were doing.”

He outlines a four-step framework leaders can use to model likely competitive behavior:

  1. Observe what competitors say and do, including press releases, earnings calls, and other public data.

  2. Assess their assets, resources, and capabilities, and imagine what you'd do in their position.

  3. Identify the decision-maker and their background to infer how they think:

“If you grew up as a marketer and you became a CEO, you’re going to look at the world from a marketing perspective.”

  1. Make a short-term prediction, write it down, and revisit it:

“It becomes a virtuous cycle of getting a better insight into how that competitor thinks.”

Horn emphasizes that many firms fall short because they stop at step one or lack mechanisms to feed deeper insights into decision-making. He also stresses the role of empathy—not sympathy—in strategy:

“I do have to empathize, understand why they’re making the choices they make.”

War gaming, in Horn's view, is a powerful simulation tool, not theater.

“It’s a chance to practice business choices in a risk-free way... and just a much more realistic discussion.”

For entrepreneurs or under-resourced teams, Horn offers a lighter-weight version called "War Gaming Lite," which enables rapid, structured thinking about competitive responses using only internal knowledge and role-playing.

He also discusses how human biases, short-term incentives, and lack of time make both your firm and your rivals more predictable than you might think:

“People really are predictable... It’s not rocket science—it’s about being disciplined.”

Whether you're a startup founder or a Fortune 500 executive, this episode offers practical steps to improve your strategic foresight and competitive positioning, grounded in empathy, behavioral realism, and iterative prediction.

Get John’s book here: https://shorturl.at/6DOyh

Inside the Competitor's Mindset: How to Predict Their Next Move and Position Yourself for Success.

Here are some free gifts for you:

Overall Approach Used in Well-Managed Strategy Studies free download: www.firmsconsulting.com/OverallApproach

McKinsey & BCG winning resume free download: www.firmsconsulting.com/resumepdf

Enjoying this episode? Get access to sample advanced training episodes here: www.firmsconsulting.com/promo

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121: Strategy is in the details (Monday Morning 8 a.m. #6)

121: Strategy is in the details (Monday Morning 8 a.m. #6)

Hello everyone! This is Monday Morning 8 a.m., a weekly newsletter where we distill the insights from all of the distractions, articles, and emails that you receive in your inbox every day. In this newsletter, we’re going to focus on four major themes from last week’s news.    To listen to the audio version of this newsletter, search for “Strategy Skills” in any podcast app. To get a written copy with links to mentioned articles sign up here: www.firmsconsulting.com/promo

30 Nov 202025min

120: Focus only on valuation is shortsighted (Monday Morning 8 a.m. #5)

120: Focus only on valuation is shortsighted (Monday Morning 8 a.m. #5)

Hello everyone! This is Monday Morning 8 a.m., a weekly newsletter where we distill the insights from all of the distractions, articles, and emails that you receive in your inbox every day. In this newsletter, we’re going to focus on four major themes from last week’s news.    To listen to the audio version of this newsletter, search for “Strategy Skills” in any podcast app. To get a written copy with links to mentioned articles sign up here: www.firmsconsulting.com/promo

23 Nov 202028min

119: How to be a leader (Monday Morning 8 a.m. #4)

119: How to be a leader (Monday Morning 8 a.m. #4)

Hello everyone! This is Monday Morning 8 a.m., a weekly newsletter where we distill the insights from all of the distractions, articles, and emails that you receive in your inbox every day. In this newsletter, we’re going to focus on four major themes from last week’s news.    To listen to the audio version of this newsletter, search for “Strategy Skills” in any podcast app. To get a written copy with links to mentioned articles sign up here: www.firmsconsulting.com/promo

16 Nov 202028min

118: How to build a pandemic strategy (Monday Morning 8 a.m. #3)

118: How to build a pandemic strategy (Monday Morning 8 a.m. #3)

Hello, everyone! This is Monday Morning 8 a.m., a weekly newsletter where we distill the insights from all of the distractions, articles, and emails that you receive in your inbox every day. In this week’s newsletter, we’re going to focus on one overarching theme—risk—and you’ll see that theme running through all of the big stories this week. So let's see how this new Monday Morning 8 a.m. format goes. Every week we will look at 3-4 themes, or one theme and 3-4 subthemes. What are the big stories and what are the big implications. Let us know if you like or dislike the style. If you're enjoying the Monday Morning 8 a.m., I'd love it if you shared it with a friend or two. You can send them here to sign up. We try to make it one of the best emails/podcasts you get each week, and we hope you're enjoying it. Get written version of Monday Morning 8 a.m. with links to articles we mention: www.firmsconsulting.com/promo

9 Nov 202022min

117: Interview with the former CEO of Dunkin' Donuts, Robert Rosenberg

117: Interview with the former CEO of Dunkin' Donuts, Robert Rosenberg

Robert Rosenberg served as chief executive officer of Dunkin’ Donuts from 1963 until his retirement in 1998. For over 35 years! Under Robert's leadership, Dunkin’ Donuts grew from a regional family business to one of America’s best known and loved brands. Robert received his MBA from Harvard Business School, and just weeks after graduating at the age of 25, he assumed the position of chief executive officer. Upon his retirement, Rosenberg had grown the Dunkin’ Donuts chain to over 4,000 stores worldwide with annual system-wide sales in excess of $2 billion. In his book, Around The Corner To Around The World: A Dozen Lessons I Learned Running Dunkin’ Donuts, Robert shares many of the stories behind this historic company and actionable business advice. Checkout out our newsletter "Monday Morning 8 a.m."

6 Nov 20201h 2min

116: What is Netflix’s real strategy? (Monday Morning 8 a.m. #2)

116: What is Netflix’s real strategy? (Monday Morning 8 a.m. #2)

Hi, everyone. This is Monday Morning 8 a.m., a newsletter that goes out—as you guessed it—every Monday. You can listen to the audio version of this Monday Morning 8 a.m. episode by searching “Strategy Skills” in any podcast app! If you want to receive a written version of this podcast, with links to mentioned articles, you can sign up for it on www.firmsconsulting.com/promo   In this newsletter, we have one goal: to help you distill the insights from the noise out there. So here are the big themes we’re noticing in the news this week and the deep insights you should be extracting from those themes.

2 Nov 202032min

115: Tech, pandemics, growth, valuation (Monday Morning 8 a.m. #1)

115: Tech, pandemics, growth, valuation (Monday Morning 8 a.m. #1)

Hi, everyone. This is Monday Morning 8 a.m., a newsletter that goes out—as you guessed it—every Monday. You can listen to the audio version of this Monday Morning 8 a.m. episode by searching “Strategy Skills” in any podcast app or sign up for a written version here!    In this program, we have one goal: to help you distill the insights from the noise out there. So here are the big themes we’re noticing in the news this week and some of the deep insights you should be extracting from those themes.   www.firmsconsulting.com/promo

26 Okt 202021min

114: Design thinking. With IBM Director, Damon Deaner

114: Design thinking. With IBM Director, Damon Deaner

Damon Deaner is a director at IBM. In this interview, we focus on design thinking.  Get sample training episodes from our advanced strategy training programs: www.firmsconsulting.com/promo

14 Okt 20201h 2min

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