Commodities: A View from Wall St with Shaia Hosseinzadeh

In this special episode, I provide notes, quotes and my take away from the FT Commodities Summit in Lausanne, Switzerland. Starting the day Credit Suisse was taken over by UBS, the conference was held against a backdrop of financial turmoil and geopolitical fractures. What do the leaders of the commodities sector see as the major opportunities and challenges, after a year of record profits and the sector itself becoming central to global strategic interests and energy transition. What are the price predictions and the nature of the trading environment for the rest of the year. This is one of the few events where the CEOs of all the trading houses meet and publicly discuss their role and views on the market.

23 Mars 202329min

Decarbonization is crucial to tackling climate change. Yet, human history has been a story of increasing energy consumption and hydrocarbons unleashed global development. Today, hope and investment is pinned on a suite of alternatives, especially wind and solar. The economics work. However, do the energetics? Our guest has spent a decade looking at the energy return on investment (EROI) and his work and insight presents a stark contrast and challenge to our current direction. Adam Rozencwajg is Managing Partner at Goehring & Rozencwajg, a commodities and natural resources fund with over 30 years of track record and holds a global following for their research (available here http://gorozen.com/)

22 Mars 20231h 4min

Edward Chancellor, financial historian and journalist, returns in this special update to discuss the unfurling banking crisis. We discuss the common thread across the financial stresses around the world is rising interest rates to tackle inflation. Should central banks be intervening? What has the Fed done with SVB? Are the events with Credit Suisse and the US banks the start of a broader financial crisis? What does this mean for rates going forward? How can the world tackle its debt and what does it mean for commodities?

20 Mars 202348min

Paul Posoli was at the forefront of energy trading through a 20 year career. In this episode, we follow Paul’s story has he joins Enron, builds a trading desk for a merchant and an investment bank, mapping through his career the peaks and valleys this sector has had. At the heart of that journey is Paul focus on people and talent. And it is that focus that led Paul to join Cristo Rey, a non-profit Jesuit high school educating students with and from limited economic resources, as President (https://www.cristoreynetwork.org). That journey led Paul to launch CareerSpring, a non-profit platform for connecting first generation college grads to employers unlocking systemic inequalities that enriches society and employers. HC Group is proud to be partners and you and your organization can help support CareerSpring (https://careerspring.org/). An inspirational story of leadership, resilience and profound empathy.

15 Mars 20231h 7min

On March 8th 2022, Nickel prices spiked 100% to $100,000 a tonne in a matter of hours, triggering billions of dollars in margin calls and threatening the very existence of the exchange. The LME took the unprecedented, and controversial, step of cancelling all trades made that day. A decision which enraged some but saved the exchange and the shorts, creating a cascade of legal battles continuing to this day (we recorded this episode prior to the UK’s FCA announcing an official investigation into misconduct). What started the crisis? Who was Mr Big Shot? What were the events that surrounded the run up in prices and how did it unravel the structure of the LME? Did the LME pose a systemic risk? What has been the fall out? Our guest is Jack Farchy, Senior Correspondent for Commodities at Bloomberg, who takes us through the crisis.

8 Mars 202350min

In 1993, Metallgesellschaft, the German Global Industrial conglomerate lost $1.3bln in oil derivatives trading through its US subsidiary MGRM. The details leading up to their implosion and the subsequent actions taken by their CEO, trading counterparties and their lending banks have been hotly debated by academia, business school students and their contemporaries in the markets ever since. In this episode, as we approach the 30th anniversary of one of the largest and most famous financial calamities in the oil trading markets, we review the key moments and, uniquely, draw on viewpoints from industry veterans present at the time: What really happened and why? What did the academics miss and what, if anything, has been quietly hushed? What lessons were learned, if any? Joining us is Kevin O’Reilly, commodities investment banker and commodity markets theorist.

1 Mars 202358min

Tantalum… a story of insatiable demand with Hadley NatusYou probably have not heard of Tantalum. However,  like the Greek mythological figure it is named after, the world is developing a need for it which is not easily satisfied. The supply chain of Tantalum also poses some fundamental questions on the supply chain of the electron economy. Tantalum is in our cell phones, TVs and EVS due to its remarkable properties. However, it is produced by artisanal miners in Congo. In this episode we discussed Tantalum’s role in energy transition, its supply chain and solutions to meet the world’s growing demand in an equitable way. Our guest is Hadley Natus who provides us a clear-eyed, insiders view on the Tantalum trade. Haldeyis the Chairman of Tantalex and CEO of Afrimet.

22 Feb 202347min

Oil Supply & Demand in 2030 with Joel Couse The energy transition will not be an easy path for a world built on hydrocarbons. The demand picture for the next decade is easier to divine than supply. To meet continued demand, more oil needs to be discovered and produced and more refineries are needed to transform it into the products we use. But who will invest? Who will  finance? And who will do it. What oil will be drilled and what will gasoline cost in 2030? What will be the consequences of disruption to this finely balanced market. Our guest is Joel Couse,Special Advisor - Energy Markets and Security at the IEA. Prior to the IEA, Joel was Chief Economist for TotalEnergies

15 Feb 202354min