Top Traders Unplugged13 Sep 2025

SI365: Design or Luck: Why Trend Following Results Diverge ft. Katy Kaminski

Katy Kaminski returns to explore why results in trend following rarely look alike, even when the rules sound the same. Using fresh research from Man Group and Quantica, she and Niels trace the fingerprints of design choices: the pace of signals, how portfolios tilt, whether to add carry, and the impact of alternative markets. Along the way they connect these differences to today’s landscape, from the Fed’s looming decision to Europe’s bond jitters, from gas and power’s outsized role in recent Alternative CTA returns to the risks of crowding. It’s a clear-eyed discussion about how systematic strategies evolve - and why dispersion matters.

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Episode TimeStamps:

01:12 - What has caught our attention recently?

06:44 - Industry performance update

12:01 - How different can managers really be in the trend following space?

22:30 - Is Andrew Beer onto something about the sharpe ratio of trend indices?

24:26 - Why Katy and Alex are obsessed with return dispersion

30:34 - What drives dispersion the most?

32:41 - Designing a trend following benchmark

35:46 - Quantifying turbulence in CTAs

39:46 - The importance of simplicity as a CTA

42:30 - Every asset is an opportunity for trend

47:41 - Do we actually have enough data to evaluate the performance of alternative markets?

52:34 - Potential papers for the future

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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