164: Expectancy vs. Win Rate: What Really Matters

164: Expectancy vs. Win Rate: What Really Matters

In this episode of the Stock Market Options Trading Podcast, Eric dives into the concept of expectancy—a key metric that blends win rate, average win size, and average loss size into one number that helps traders understand whether a strategy has a real edge over the long run.

We break down why a high win rate alone doesn’t guarantee profits (think 98% win rate ads…), and how expectancy provides better context by showing how much you can expect to make or lose per trade on average. Eric also shares updates inside Alpha Crunching: the Trade Ideas tab now includes expectancy alongside win rate, giving subscribers deeper insight when sorting potential setups for the week.

You’ll also hear about future enhancements—like adding average win and loss values—so traders can better gauge risk-reward and decide which setups fit their personal style.

👉 Try Alpha Crunching for yourself and get 50% off your first month here: https://alphacrunching.com

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Avsnitt(187)

155: This Week In The S&P500: Slowing Momentum Nearing All Time Highs

155: This Week In The S&P500: Slowing Momentum Nearing All Time Highs

The S&P 500 is closing in on all-time highs, but is momentum starting to fade? In this episode, Eric O’Rourke breaks down the key SPX levels to watch, including major option walls, falling volatility,...

9 Juni 20259min

154: Trading in Retirement: Tips for Consistent Income and Low Stress

154: Trading in Retirement: Tips for Consistent Income and Low Stress

In this episode, I’m joined by longtime trader and retiree Brian Terry to talk about the realities of trading in retirement. We cover how trading can keep your mind sharp, add structure to your day, a...

4 Juni 202539min

153: SPX Options Setup After Surprise EU Tariff News

153: SPX Options Setup After Surprise EU Tariff News

In this week’s episode of the Stock Market Options Trading Podcast, Eric recaps last week’s pullback in SPX, driven by fresh EU tariff headlines, and how the forecast data from Alpha Crunching has res...

27 Maj 20258min

152: S&P 500 Shrugs Off Credit Downgrade? | Broken Wing Butterfly Setup

152: S&P 500 Shrugs Off Credit Downgrade? | Broken Wing Butterfly Setup

This week on the Stock Market Options Trading Podcast, I'm joined by fellow trader Brian Terry as we break down the market’s reaction to the Moody’s U.S. credit downgrade, recent economic data, and th...

19 Maj 202523min

151: This Week In The S&P500: Your Charts Might Be Lying...

151: This Week In The S&P500: Your Charts Might Be Lying...

📈 Volatility, Indicators, and the SPX Weekly Forecast | Episode 151In this episode of the Stock Market Options Trading Podcast, I cover how volatile price action can distort technical indicators—and ...

12 Maj 202513min

150: SPX Forecast After 9-Day Rally | Iron Condor Strategy Adjustments

150: SPX Forecast After 9-Day Rally | Iron Condor Strategy Adjustments

📈 First Video Podcast, SPX Forecast After 9-Day Rally, Iron Condor Adjustments & Market ForecastsWatch the video here: https://youtu.be/Pk22BcCBfn0Welcome to episode 150 of the Stock Market Options T...

5 Maj 202515min

149: This Week In The S&P500: Trading Iron Condors and Truflation

149: This Week In The S&P500: Trading Iron Condors and Truflation

Welcome back to the Stock Market Options Trading Podcast! I'm your host, Eric O'Rourke, and in this episode I break down the latest market action, key technical levels, and how I’m trading SPX options...

21 Apr 202514min

148: This Week In The S&P500: Tariff Turmoil, Fed Caution, and a Choppy Bounce

148: This Week In The S&P500: Tariff Turmoil, Fed Caution, and a Choppy Bounce

In this episode, Eric recaps last week's wild ride in the S&P 500, driven by tariff headlines, a surprise 90-day pause, and a sharp oversold rally. He covers key economic data—including CPI, PPI, and ...

14 Apr 202514min

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