Trading the Markets: October 1, 2025 | Kris Bullock and Bijan Maleki

Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal, is joined by senior editor, Ash Bennington, to reflect on a week of extreme price action. They analyze the dramatic crash of U.S. equities on Thursday and its connection to the speculative activity in derivatives markets. After weighing the significance of Softbank’s unmasking as the big “NASDAQ Whale” that has been buying a massive amount of calls on big tech stocks, Raoul and Ash have a broader discussion about how volatility regimes evolve and bleed into each other. Raoul then provides a strategic update on his “unfolding” thesis, shares his thoughts on Europe, and explores the possibility of a W-shaped recession. Finally, Raoul and Ash discuss the “Festival of Learning” that Real Vision hosted this week, as well as give a sneak peek of Real Vision’s new community feature, “The Exchange.” In the intro, Jack Farley and Ash discuss today’s jobs report and look at market volatility. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

4 Sep 202047min

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, hosts Dave Floyd, founder of Aspen Trading, to discuss the levels he’s looking at after U.S. equity markets cratered today. Dave considers whether there are structural changes occurring in the markets and provides his insight into the frothiness by drawing comparisons between now and markets in the early 2000s. He also breaks down his tactical approach and how he makes his picks. Ash is also joined by Real Vision’s Roger Hirst, sharing his thoughts on how rising implied volatility was signaling a potential drawdown in the past few weeks. Roger explains how he analyzes the VIX and the volatility curve to understand this rare market signal and expands on Ed Harrison’s points about derivatives playing into rising volatility and what bond yields converging to zero means for real yields. Roger also provides his response to James Altucher’s segment from yesterday’s Daily Briefing. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

3 Sep 202047min

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, joins managing editor, Ed Harrison, to talk about the risk of an equity drawdown for retail investors in particular. Ed and Ash explore how market volatility is increasing and the fact that bond yields globally have converged to zero makes a drawdown that much more severe. They also talk about how the activity in the derivatives market is playing into the uptick in market volatility. Ash also hosts James Altucher to discuss his recent article in the New York Post about the narrative of the death of cities, and Ed and Ash provide their thoughts. In the intro, Nick Correa discusses Australia’s slide into recession after almost 3 decades of economic expansion. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

2 Sep 202043min

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, hosts Tony Greer, editor of The Morning Navigator, to discuss how the Fed’s “inflation running hot” memo has been translated by the markets. With a weakening dollar, rally in TIPS, and a steeper yield curve, Tony argues that the asset price inflation happening is the way the Fed had intended it to be and that understanding how the Fed fits into the equation will shape the investor’s understanding of the sustainability of this rally. He and Ash examine the price action and continuous rotation across different sectors as well as how commodities continuing to rip is an expression of an ever-weakening dollar. Tony then provides his forward guidance for the remainder of the week. In the intro, Nick Correa goes over the newest U.S. manufacturing numbers as well as what’s happening with copper and other industrial metals. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

1 Sep 202033min

How is it that the real economy can be so weak while the asset markets continue to fly? Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison explores this and more with senior editor Ash Bennington. Ed and Ash discuss the ever-widening chasm between Wall Street and Main Street and use Hyman Minsky’s “two-price model” as a framework to understand this dichotomy, and they analyze how asset markets have responded differently to interest rate cuts than the markets for goods and services. In that context, they explain how the sinking labor force participation rate reveals a hidden unemployment which will keep inflation subdued. In the intro, Ash and Jack Farley discuss Jack’s recent interview with Jason Buck on the Real Vision blog, and they also interpret the re-opening woes of airlines and colleges. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

31 Aug 202035min

Diego Parrilla, portfolio manager and author of "The Anti-Bubbles" and "The Energy World," returns to discuss his poignant predictions that are coming to fruition one-by-one in this conversation with Real Vision CEO and co-founder, Raoul Pal. As well, Parrilla gives a master class on how he has developed his own macro framework and the subsequent portfolio construction and management that has served him extremely well both before and after the March crash. After establishing his current outlook, Parrilla focuses on the 5% of his portfolio dedicated to finding outsized returns using options and what he calls the goalkeepers of your portfolio.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

30 Aug 20201h 26min

David Samra, Portfolio Manager of Artisan Partners’ International Value Fund, speaks with Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison about the subtle art of value investing. Samra, who defines value investing simply as buying something well below its intrinsic value, shares the four criteria he and his fund use when looking at stocks: undervaluation, quality, financial strength and management alignment. He and Ed also discuss how investors can avoid the pitfalls of so-called "value-traps" – i.e. when a stock is cheap because there’s a reason it's cheap. Lastly, Samra analyzes two companies that are in his fund’s portfolio: ABB and Compass Group PLC. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

29 Aug 20201h 4min

Real Vision senior editor, Ash Bennington, and managing editor, Ed Harrison, react to the new U.S. consumer spending report out today from the Commerce Department. Despite gains for three consecutive months, momentum fell as the COVID-19 pandemic lingers and fiscal support dries up. They also discuss inflation rhetoric following yesterday’s announcement from the Fed to keep interest rates lower for longer as well as the Fed’s dual mandate and how they may need to retire the use of the Phillips Curve. Real Vision editor and reporter Haley Draznin is introduced for the first time to discuss her new role and what financial news stories she is keeping a close eye on. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

28 Aug 202033min