84 - Nick Bloom on Economic Uncertainty and the Productivity Slowdown

Mike Bird is a Hong Kong based reporter for the Wall Street Journal covering financial markets across Asia, and he previously worked in the Journal's London bureau. Mike is also a returning guest to Macro Musings, and he joins the show today to talk about some recent developments in the Asian economies. More specifically, David and Mike discuss Japan's activist monetary policy, yield curve control, and recent events within the Chinese economy. Transcript for the episode: (coming soon) Mike's Twitter: @birdyword Mike's Wall Street Journal profile: https://www.wsj.com/news/author/mike-bird Related Links: *Japan Is Giving Up on Activist Monetary Policy* by Mike Bird https://www.wsj.com/articles/japan-is-giving-up-on-activist-monetary-policy-11556271835 *The Fed Would Struggle to Match Japan's Bond Market Control* by Mike Bird https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-fed-would-struggle-to-match-japans-bond-market-control-11557480894 David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

3 Juni 20191h 1min

Robert Samuelson is an economics columnist for the Washington Post and spent several decades working at Newsweek, where he wrote on various economic topics. Robert is the author of several books, including *The Good Life and Its Discontents: The American Dream in the Age of Entitlement* and *The Great Inflation and Its Aftermath: The Past and Future of American Affluence*. He joins the show today to talk about the latter and its implications for today. David and Robert go in-depth about the Great Inflation, as they discuss the disagreement within macroeconomics during the 60s and 70s, the history and significance of the period, and how Ronald Reagan and Paul Volcker sought to end the inflation. Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/05282019/great-inflation-its-history-and-its-legacy Robert's Washington Post profile & bio: https://www.washingtonpost.com/people/robert-j-samuelson/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.6e300b47761d Related Links: *The Great Inflation and Its Aftermath: The Past and Future of American Affluence* by Robert J. Samuelson https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/160295/the-great-inflation-and-its-aftermath-by-robert-j-samuelson/9780812980042/ *The Good Life and Its Discontents: The American Dream in the Age of Entitlement* by Robert J. Samuelson https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/160294/the-good-life-and-its-discontents-by-robert-samuelson/9780679781523/ David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

27 Maj 201957min

Dylan Matthews is a senior correspondent with Vox where he covers a wide array of topics including immigration policy, universal basic income, education policy, effective altruism, animal welfare, and global development. Dylan is one of Vox's original founders and he has also previously worked for Wonkblog at the Washington Post. He joins the show today to discuss one of his most recent articles on business cycles, titled *The Government Failed to Stop the Last Recession. It Can Prevent the Next One*, as well as some of his other work on the subject. David and Dylan also discuss recessions at length, exploring what we know about them, why we should worry about them, and outlining 9 potential policy options to help prevent recessions in the future. Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/05202019/nine-ways-prevent-future-recessions Dylan's Twitter: @dylanmatt Dylan's Vox profile: https://www.vox.com/authors/dylan Related Links: *Why I Gave My Kidney to a Stranger – and Why You Should Consider Doing it too* by Dylan Matthews https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/4/11/12716978/kidney-donation-dylan-matthews *The Government Failed to Stop the Last Recession. It Can Prevent the Next One* by Dylan Matthews https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/3/29/18279205/recession-unemployment-inverted-yield-curve-stimulus-policy David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

20 Maj 201958min

Robert Graboyes is a senior research fellow and health economist at the Mercatus Center and has formerly worked for the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and Chase Manhattan Bank. Robert joins the show today to talk about monetary history and specifically the history of small coins. David and Robert also discuss a number of different coins and the history surrounding them, ranging from civil war tokens to early Roman currencies. Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/05132019/robert-graboyes-monetary-history-small-coins Robert's Twitter: @Robert_Graboyes Robert's Mercatus profile: https://www.mercatus.org/robert-graboyes Related Links: *Anticipations of the General Theory?* by Don Patinkin https://www.press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/A/bo5964857.html *Notre-Dame and the Myth of Timelessness* By Robert Graboyes https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/commentary/notre-dame-and-myth-timelessness Coins discussed during the interview: 20th century token from Kopper's Stores, a coal mine company store in West Virginia: https://i.imgur.com/T6wBLX7.jpg A coin from Diocletian: https://i.imgur.com/9wZCdj2.jpg Groat (four pence) piece from Henry VII: https://i.imgur.com/bkxbK8j.jpg U.S. Trade Dollar, designed specifically for use only in the Orient: https://i.imgur.com/cXPNwr6.jpg Civil War token, used as private coinage during the wartime inflation and metal shortage: https://i.imgur.com/HzLlIAb.jpg Trade token, origin unknown: https://i.imgur.com/3LFt03B.jpg David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

13 Maj 201957min

David Andolfatto is a vice president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank and is published widely in the field of monetary economics. He also blogs at MacroMania, and has recently published on issues such as the zero lower bound, the symmetry of the Fed's inflation target, a new standing repo facility, and MMT. David is a returning guest to Macro Musings, and he joins the show today to talk about these issues. David and David also discuss the safe asset shortage, average and flexible inflation targeting, and the legal, political, and economic restraint surrounding negative interest rates. Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/05062019/safe-assets-symmetric-inflation-and-mmt David Andolfatto's Twitter: @dandolfa David Andolfatto's blog: http://andolfatto.blogspot.com/ Related Links: *Is Low Inflation Really a Mystery?* by David Beckworth https://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/2019/04/is-low-inflation-really-mystery.html *Why the Fed Should Create a Standing Repo Facility* by David Andolfatto and Jane Ihrig https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2019/march/why-fed-create-standing-repo-facility David Beckworth's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Disclaimer: Anything that David Andolfatto says reflects his own personal views and not the views of the Federal Reserve.

6 Maj 201959min

Alexandra Scaggs is a senior writer at Barron's covering financial markets with a special emphasis on bond markets, and she previously wrote news and commentary for the Financial Times and for Bloomberg. Alexandra joins the show today to talk about the current state of bond markets and what it means for the economy. David and Alexandra also discuss corporate debt, the inversion of the treasury yield curve, and the lasting impact of the modern monetary theory debate. Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/04292019/bond-markets-and-macroeconomics Alexandra's Twitter: @alexandrascaggs Alexandra's Barron's profile: https://www.barrons.com/authors/8576 Related Links: *Negative-Yielding Bonds Top $9 Trillion as Growth Worries Return* by Adam Haigh https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-14/negative-yielding-bonds-top-9-trillion-as-growth-worries-return David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

29 Apr 201951min

Andrew Park is a senior editor at S&P LCD and is one of the foremost experts on collateralized loan obligations and the leverage loan market. Andrew also writes daily on what's going on in the collateralized loan obligations (CLO) market and his data is the basis for most of the reporting on this topic in the Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, and by many policymakers. He joins the show today to talk about CLOs and their implications for the financial system and, more generally, the economy. David and Andrew also discuss the leveraged loan market, the differences between CDOs and CLOs, and the Fed's most recent rate hikes. Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/04222019/andrew-park-loans-financial-system-and-economy Andrew's Twitter: @apark_ Andrew's Forbes profile & archive: https://www.forbes.com/sites/spleverage/people/andrewparksp/#18bc9eb1102d Related Links: *Wall Street's Billionaire Machine, Where Almost Everyone Gets Rich* by Tom Metcalf, Tom Maloney, Sally Bakewell, and Christopher Cannon https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-collateralized-loan-obligations/ *U.S. Leveraged Loan Market: Plenty of Risk, But Not Systemic* by Beth MacLean https://www.pimco.com/en-us/insights/viewpoints/us-leveraged-loan-market-plenty-of-risk-but-not-systemic/ David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

22 Apr 201958min

Eric Lonergan is macro hedge fund manager, and economist, and a writer. He has written for Foreign Affairs, the Financial Times, and has authored the book *Money (The Art of Living)*. More recently, Eric has also co-authored a new book called *Angrynomics*. He joins the show today to talk about how to improve policymakers' responses to recessions. David and Eric also discuss helicopter drops, dual interest rates, and how governments can make monetary policy more direct. Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/04152019/how-respond-recessions Eric's Twitter: @ericlonners Eric's blog: https://www.philosophyofmoney.net/blog/ Related Links: *Money: The Art of Living* by Eric Lonergan https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/money/486535FC2BE6ADB342A82A668584AE71 *Fixing the Euro Zone and Reducing Inequality, Without Fleecing the Rich* by Eric Lonergan and Mark Blyth https://hbr.org/2015/01/fixing-the-euro-zone-and-reducing-inequality-without-fleecing-the-rich David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

15 Apr 201956min