20VC: How to Build Anti-Fragile Venture Portfolios Today | Why Diversification is Overrated in Portfolio Construction | How to Think Through Sizing Investments, Market Sizing and Pricing in Today's Environment with Mike Chalfen @ Chalfen Ventures

20VC: How to Build Anti-Fragile Venture Portfolios Today | Why Diversification is Overrated in Portfolio Construction | How to Think Through Sizing Investments, Market Sizing and Pricing in Today's Environment with Mike Chalfen @ Chalfen Ventures

Mike Chalfen is a solo GP with Chalfen Ventures and one of the most respected and successful early-stage investors in Europe over the last two decades. Among Mike's incredible portfolio includes the likes of King.com (makers of Candy Crush), Houzz, Tipalti, Snyk, and Tray.io, to name a few. Some incredible facts on Mike, he has a 15x career track record, he has a portfolio value of over $40BN+ and he joined the venture industry, the year of my birth!

In Today's Episode with Mike Chalfen You Will Learn:

1.) Entry Into Venture and The Broken Customer Experience of VC:

  • How did Mike make his original entry into venture way back in 1996?
  • What does Mike mean when he speaks of the difference between "managing your career vs the money you invest"?
  • What does Mike believe are some of the greatest challenges of venture partnerships today?
  • What does Mike believe that the customer experience in venture partnerships for founders is broken today?
  • How did seeing the prior booms and busts impact Mike's investing mentality today?

3.) Portfolio Construction 101:

  • How does Mike think about portfolio construction today?
  • With 9-10 core positions, why does Mike disagree with the traditional notion of "diversification"?
  • How does the decision-making framework for Mike change when considering new investments vs re-investments?
  • Does Mike believe that pro-rata is a lazy notion? What does Mike need to see on the upside to re-invest?
  • How does Mike feel about the importance of temporal diversification? Why did Mike increase the cadence of his investing in 2021? Does he regret the increased speed?

3.) The Market 101:

  • How does Mike think about the importance of market sizing? If we always underestimate the size of our winners, is this market sizing exercise not destined for failure?
  • Why does Mike believe so many over the last few years have poorly sized markets they invested in?
  • How does Mike assess market timing risk? What market risk is he willing vs not willing to take?
  • What have been some of Mike's biggest mistakes when analyzing markets in the past? How did it change his perspective?

4.) Boards 101:

  • How would Mike describe his style of board membership today? How has it changed over time?
  • Why does Mike believe that boards at seed are not valuable? When do they become valuable?
  • What is the single biggest mistake Mike sees so many young board members make today? What is his biggest advice to young board members?
  • How does Mike advise founders on preparing for boards? What does he want to see?
  • What are the biggest mistakes founders make when conducting board meetings?

Items Mentioned in Today's Episode with Mike Chalfen:

Mike's Favourite Books: Don't Let's Go to the Dogs Tonight: An African Childhood, Days Without End

Mike's Most Recent Investment: Opply

Avsnitt(1403)

20VC: a16z's David George on How $BN Funds Can 5×, Do Margins & Revenue Matter in AI & the Most Controversial Bet at a16z

20VC: a16z's David George on How $BN Funds Can 5×, Do Margins & Revenue Matter in AI & the Most Controversial Bet at a16z

David George is a General Partner at Andreessen Horowitz, where he leads the firm's Growth investing team. His team has backed many of the defining companies of this era, including Databricks, Figma, Stripe, SpaceX, Anduril, and OpenAI, and is now investing behind a new generation of AI startups like Cursor, Harvey, and Abridge. AGENDA: 03:05 – Why Everyone is Wrong: Mega Funds Does Not Reduce Returns 10:40 – Is Public Market Capital Actually Cheaper Than Private Capital? 18:55 – The Biggest Advantage of Staying Private for Longer 23:30 – The #1 Investing Rule for a16z: Always Invest in the Founder's Strength of Strengths 31:20 – Why Fear of Theoretical Competition Makes Investors Miss Great Companies 35:10 – Does Revenue Matter as Much in a World of AI? 44:10 – Does Kingmaking Still Exist in Venture Capital Today? 49:20 – Do Margins Matter Less Than Ever in an AI-First World? 53:50 – My Biggest Miss: Anthropic and What I Learn From it?  56:30 – Has OpenAI Won Consumer AI? Will Anthropic Win Enterprise? 59:45 – The Most Controversial Decision in Andreessen Horowitz History 1:01:30 – Why Did You Invest $300M into Adam Neumann and Flow?

15 Dec 20251h 6min

20Growth: How Wiz Built a $30BN Brand in Enterprise | What Worked vs What Was a Mega Failure: Lessons Learned | Why Marketers Make the Worst CMOs & What To Look for in Growth with Raaz Herzberg

20Growth: How Wiz Built a $30BN Brand in Enterprise | What Worked vs What Was a Mega Failure: Lessons Learned | Why Marketers Make the Worst CMOs & What To Look for in Growth with Raaz Herzberg

Raaz Herberg is the Chief Marketing Officer and VP Product Strategy at Wiz, the fastest-growing cloud security company in history. As one of the first 10 employees, Raaz has helped scale the business from nothing to a multi-billion-dollar ARR business. Before Wiz, Raaz was a Senior PM working on Azure at Microsoft.  AGENDA: 03:51 What No One Knows About The Early Wiz Days 09:08 Most Effective Marketing Wiz Ever Did? Lessons from it? 24:11 How Wiz Mastered Enterprise Sales and Product Development 39:12 The Value of Proof of Concept an Why Everyone Gets Them Wrong 44:23 Why The Best Leaders Give More Equity Than They Should 52:55 The Impact of COVID on Business Operations 01:01:33 What in AI is No One Talking About That Everyone Should Be? 01:07:29 Why Does Raaz Think Custom Tools Will Dominate the Enterprise?

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20VC OGs: SpaceX Valued at $800BN & Harvey Raises $160M at an $8BN Price | Airwallex Raises $330M and The Battle with Keith Rabois | Netflix Acquires Warner Brothers | IPO Market Predictions for 2026: Anthropic, Stripe, Databricks and SpaceX

20VC OGs: SpaceX Valued at $800BN & Harvey Raises $160M at an $8BN Price | Airwallex Raises $330M and The Battle with Keith Rabois | Netflix Acquires Warner Brothers | IPO Market Predictions for 2026: Anthropic, Stripe, Databricks and SpaceX

AGENDA: 03:46 SpaceX's $800 Billion Valuation: A Deep Dive 09:18 IPO Market Predictions for 2026 18:18 Netflix's Bold Move: Acquiring Warner Brothers 27:43 Tiger's New Fund Strategy 33:02 Databricks' Head of AI $500 Million Seed Round 36:38 Harvey Raises $160M at an $8BN Valuation 48:22 Will LLMs Kill the App Layer 01:02:02 Google's AI Capabilities 01:06:58 Chinese Open Source Models in US Startups 01:08:57 Airwallex Raises $330M at an $8BN Valuation 01:23:50 Prediction Markets and Insider Trading

11 Dec 20251h 31min

20VC: Kalshi's $1BN Raise, the Polymarket Feud, and the Battle to Replace Traditional Media

20VC: Kalshi's $1BN Raise, the Polymarket Feud, and the Battle to Replace Traditional Media

Tarek Mansour is the Co-Founder and CEO @ Kalshi, the leader in the world of prediction markets. Just last week, they announced their $1BN raise at an $11BN valuation. In total, they have raised $1.59BN from some of the best, including Sequoia, a16z, General Catalyst, IVP, Meritech, and more. They also last week announced exclusive partnerships with CNN and CNBC, marking their move into mainstream media and news.  AGENDA: 03:28 Why Did Kalshi Need to Raise $1BN 10:35 Why is Kalshi vs Polymarket Such a Fierce Rivalry? 20:44 The Future of Prediction Markets 25:09 Why Does Kalshi Partner with CNN When They Could Replace Them? 26:27 Why Did Tarek Fight For the Rights of his Early Investors So Much? 27:25 What Makes Alfred Lin The Best? 29:19 Does Having Sequoia as an Investor Change the Game? 36:58 Are Teenage Founders Today Emotionally Ready to Lead Companies 38:30 Quick Fire Round: Celebrity Investors, Relationships with Parents

8 Dec 202547min

20VC: Inside Bending Spoons Acquisition Machine: Evernote, Eventbrite, Vimeo | How Evernote Evaluates Acquisitions and New Product Ideas | How Evernote Mastered Product Launches, User Retention and Monetisation with Federico Simionato

20VC: Inside Bending Spoons Acquisition Machine: Evernote, Eventbrite, Vimeo | How Evernote Evaluates Acquisitions and New Product Ideas | How Evernote Mastered Product Launches, User Retention and Monetisation with Federico Simionato

Bending Spoons is the acquisition machine of the tech world. They have acquired the likes of Evernote, Vimeo, Eventbrite, Streamyard and more. However, they never open their gates to the secrets behind Evernote's product machine. Today that changes with Federico Simionato joining 20Product. Fede has been a Product Lead at Bending Spoons for 8 years where he has led product teams at Evernote, WeTransfer and more.   AGENDA: 03:02 From Dentist Games to $11BN Bending Spoons 04:54 Advice for Aspiring Product Managers 05:38 Building a Coveted Brand at Bending Spoons 07:43 Evaluating and Testing New Product Ideas 13:35 How Evernote has Mastered User Retention 25:24 The Impact of AI on Product Design and Prototyping 31:19 How Bending Spoons Does Product Launches and Lessons Learned 33:27 How Every Product Team Should Do Monthly Updates to Users 36:38 Recording and Transparency in Updates 38:06 Lessons from Failed Product Launches 45:14 Structuring Teams and Acquisitions 47:12 Monetization Strategies and Push Notifications 57:21 Quick Fire Round: Insights and Reflections

5 Dec 20251h 5min

20VC: Thrive & OpenAI Partnership | Eventbrite Acquired for $500M | Databricks Raising $5BN at $134BN Valuation: Cheap or Not? | Why SaaS is Like Japan and The TAM Trap in Software

20VC: Thrive & OpenAI Partnership | Eventbrite Acquired for $500M | Databricks Raising $5BN at $134BN Valuation: Cheap or Not? | Why SaaS is Like Japan and The TAM Trap in Software

AGENDA: 04:20 Thrive and OpenAI Partnership  07:14 Databricks Raising $5BN at $134BN Valuation: Cheap or Not? 17:39 Eventbrite Acquired by Bending Spoons for $500M 21:39 Pagerduty's $1BN Market Cap, Just 2x Revenue 26:59 The TAM Trap: Why SaaS Is Like Japan 37:42 Lessons from Companies Hitting $100M ARR 44:57 The Future of Labour Markets is F****** 52:10 The Importance of Compounding in Investments 56:45 The Relevance Game in Venture Capital 01:05:01 Supabase at $5BN or Lovable at $6BN: Which One?

4 Dec 20251h 12min

20VC: Scale, Surge, Turing, Mercor: Who Wins & Who Loses in Data Labelling | Is Revenue in Data Labelling Real or GMV? | Why 99% of Knowledge Work Will Go and What Happens Then? | Why SaaS is Dead in a World of AI with Jonathan Siddharth @ Turing

20VC: Scale, Surge, Turing, Mercor: Who Wins & Who Loses in Data Labelling | Is Revenue in Data Labelling Real or GMV? | Why 99% of Knowledge Work Will Go and What Happens Then? | Why SaaS is Dead in a World of AI with Jonathan Siddharth @ Turing

Jonathan Siddharth is Founder and CEO of Turing, one of the fastest-growing AI companies advancing frontier models. Jonathan has led the company to an astonishing $300M ARR with just $225M raised and a profitable company. A Stanford-trained AI scientist, Jonathan previously helped pioneer natural language search at Powerset, which was acquired by Microsoft. AGENDA: 03:35 Data, Compute, Algorithms: What is Most Abundant? What is Lacking Most? 09:18 What Does No One Know About AI's Data Requirements That Everyone Should? 17:05 The Biggest Challenges Enterprises Have with AI Adoption 20:38 Why Will 99% of Knowledge Work Will be Gone in 10 Years 27:12 How Will Data-Driven Feedback Loops Replace Technology as the Moat 36:08 Who Wins the Data Labelling Market? Who Loses? 38:23 Is Revenue BS in Data Labelling? Are Players Calling GMV Revenue?  45:20 Why is SaaS Dead in a World of AI? 51:23 Will the Phone be the Primary User Interface to an AI World? 57:07 Quickfire Round

1 Dec 20251h 8min

20Sales: John McMahon on How to Hire, Train & Retain the Best Sales Reps | How Sales Changes in a World of AI | Sales Lessons from Snowflake and MongoDB | How to Create and Drive a Sales Process with Urgency

20Sales: John McMahon on How to Hire, Train & Retain the Best Sales Reps | How Sales Changes in a World of AI | Sales Lessons from Snowflake and MongoDB | How to Create and Drive a Sales Process with Urgency

John McMahon is widely regarded as one of the greatest enterprise-software sales leaders of all time. He's the only person to have served as Chief Revenue Officer at five public software companies: PTC, GeoTel, Ariba, BladeLogic and BMC Software. He helped scale BladeLogic from a startup into a public company — ultimately leading to its ~$880M sale to BMC — and drove GeoTel into a multi-billion dollar acquisition. Today he sits on the boards of top names such as Snowflake and MongoDB, while also mentoring and influencing a who's-who of modern SaaS sales leaders. AGENDA: 03:33 The Art and Science of Sales: Insights from a Veteran 04:29 Adapting Sales Strategies in the Age of AI and PLG 07:47 The Ultimate Framework to do Deal Qualification 14:13 How to Drive Urgency and Maintain Sales Process 20:06 How to Hire the Best Sales Reps 25:11 Step-by-Step Guide to Training Sales Reps 45:22 The Mindset of the Best Sales Reps 54:55 Single Most Important Skill to Win in Sales

28 Nov 20251h 8min

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